Core Insights - Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) had a normal quarter with minor changes, experiencing a slight decrease in the value of its assets, which was anticipated, and the stock is currently considered overpriced [1][15] Financial Performance - NLY recorded a minor quarterly book value (BV) decrease that aligned with expectations, with a total net valuation gain of $147 million during Q2 2025, outperforming the projected gain of $110 million [2][10] - Core earnings/EAD for NLY matched expectations with a slight increase compared to Q1 2025, driven by a larger on-balance sheet portfolio size [4][10] - The hedging coverage ratio decreased from 102% to 95%, which was anticipated, indicating a slight reduction in risk management strategies [3][6] Valuation Metrics - The reported GAAP BV per share was $18.45, slightly above the projected $18.35, reflecting a 0.54% outperformance [10] - The stock price is currently at $21.14, leading to a dividend yield of 13.25% and a payout ratio of 96%, indicating a high dividend relative to earnings [12] Market Position - NLY's performance in terms of BV decrease and core earnings increase is expected to outperform most agency mREIT peers, suggesting a relatively strong position in the market [5][14] - The company remains in a good position to maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.70 per common share, despite core earnings only slightly covering this amount [14]

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment's recent earnings report indicates a decline in key financial metrics, raising concerns about future performance and potential pullback in stock value leading up to the next earnings release [1]. Financial Performance - The second-quarter 2025 net spread and dollar roll income per common share was 38 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents, and down from 53 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income was $457 million, a decrease of 5.2% year-over-year [2]. - The company reported a comprehensive loss per common share of 13 cents, remaining relatively flat compared to the previous year [3]. Key Metrics - Net interest income (NII) was $162 million, significantly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 36.2%, while net interest expenses were $3 million in the prior-year quarter [4]. - The average asset yield on the portfolio increased to 4.87% from 4.69% year-over-year [4]. - The average net interest spread decreased to 2.01% from 2.69% in the year-ago quarter [5]. Balance Sheet and Portfolio - As of June 30, 2025, the tangible net book value per share (BVPS) was $7.81, down 7% year-over-year [6]. - The company's investment portfolio totaled $82.3 billion, including $73.3 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities [7]. - Cash and cash equivalents were $656 million, a decline of 44.2% from the prior quarter [8]. Market Outlook - The stock has a poor Growth Score of F and a Momentum Score of D, with an aggregate VGM Score of F, indicating weak overall performance [11]. - AGNC Investment holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [12].

Financial Performance - GAAP Net Income was $102 million or $027 per share[11] - NAV-Based Total Return was 197% annualized[11] - Net Investment Income was $65 million or $017 per share[11] - Adjusted Net Investment Income was $66 million or $018 per share[11] - Net Asset Value was $2297 million or $612 per share as of June 30 2025[11] Investment Portfolio - The CLO portfolio grew by 27% to $3169 million as of June 30 2025 from $2499 million as of March 31 2025[11, 18] - CLO debt investments totaled $1489 million with 79% in the U S and 21% in Europe[11] - CLO equity investments totaled $1680 million with 92% in the U S and 8% in Europe[11] - The company purchased $906 million of CLO investments and sold $159 million[11] - The weighted average GAAP yield for the quarter based on amortized cost was 156% on the total CLO portfolio[11] Distributions - The company received $159 million in recurring cash distributions from the investment portfolio or $042 per share[11] - The distribution rate was 172% based on the August 18 2025 closing stock price of $559 and a monthly distribution of $008 per common share declared on August 7 2025[11]

Group 1: Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY has four preferred shares, with NLY-F and NLY-I showing materially negative yield to call, while NLY-G has a positive yield to call of 8.73%, which is lower than most baby bonds in the sector [2] - A new preferred share, NLY-J, has been issued with a fixed-rate coupon of 8.875%. The share is callable after five years, limiting upside if rates fall, while increasing interest rate risk if rates rise [3] - NLY-J's trading price has increased from $24.80 to $25.10, indicating a common trend for preferred shares to rise in the initial weeks after issuance [4] Group 2: MFA Financial (MFA) - MFA has two preferred shares and two baby bonds, with MFA-C showing a reasonable floating spread of 5.79% over 3-month LIBOR, resulting in a stripped yield of approximately 10.3% to 10.4% at a price of $24.23 [5][6] - MFA-B is a fixed-rate share with an 8.84% stripped yield at $21.58, but the potential upside is limited, making it less attractive compared to baby bonds [8] - Overall, MFA-C is slightly favored over MFA-B, but baby bonds are preferred if their prices dip modestly, as this can significantly impact yield to call and yield to maturity [9] Group 3: ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) - ARR was the worst-performing mortgage REIT last week, with shares dropping 4.6%, significantly worse than peers [13][14] - The price-to-NAV for ARR has decreased to a projected 0.92x, indicating a decline in market sentiment following a public offering announcement [14][16] - The public offering was made at about 98% of book value, which did not excite shareholders, contributing to the decline in share price [16]

Core Viewpoint - Armour Residential REIT (ARR) experienced a quarter that was largely as expected, with a slight decline in book value and weaker-than-anticipated earnings, primarily due to market fluctuations early in the quarter, although some recovery in June mitigated the impact [1][23]. Book Value and Earnings Performance - ARR reported a minor decrease in book value (BV) of 1.1% during Q2 2025, which was in line with expectations, but it underperformed compared to stronger peers in the agency mREIT sector [11][23]. - The on-balance sheet investment portfolio valuation gain was $16.5 million, closely matching the projected $20.0 million, leading to a BV underperformance of $0.04 per common share [3][23]. - Core earnings/EAD for Q2 2025 were reported at $67.9 million, which was a modest underperformance compared to the estimated $74.0 million, resulting in a variance of $0.071 per share [11][19]. Interest Income and Operational Expenses - Net interest income decreased from $36.3 million in Q1 2025 to $33.1 million in Q2 2025, a decline of $3.2 million, which was below the projected $37.5 million [7][23]. - Operational expenses increased from $13.1 million in Q1 2025 to $14.3 million in Q2 2025, which also contributed to the core earnings underperformance [8][23]. Hedging and Derivative Performance - ARR increased its hedging coverage ratio from 84% to 93% during Q2 2025, which was slightly above the projected range of 85%-90% [4][16]. - The company experienced a derivative valuation loss of $157 million, which was more severe than the anticipated loss of $150 million, contributing to a BV underperformance of $0.09 per common share [4][23]. Sector Comparison and Future Outlook - ARR's performance was weaker compared to peers like AGNC, DX, and NLY, which reported better results in terms of BV and core earnings [23]. - The company is currently rated as a HOLD, with expectations for stabilization in core earnings/EAD in Q3 2025 before any potential rating downgrades [13][24].

Core Viewpoint - Arbor Realty's (ABR) dividend stability and growth have historically made it a strong performer in the mortgage REIT sector, but recent dividend cuts and declining coverage have led to a neutral stance on the stock [1]. Company Summary - Arbor Realty has been recognized for its consistent dividend payments and growth, positioning it as one of the top tickers in the mortgage REIT space [1]. - The recent decision to cut dividends has raised concerns about the company's financial health and its ability to maintain coverage [1]. Industry Summary - The equity market is characterized by daily price fluctuations that can lead to significant wealth creation or destruction over time [1]. - Pacifica Yield is focused on long-term wealth creation by investing in undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported distributable earnings (DE) of $151 million or $0.43 per share, while GAAP net income was $130 million or $0.38 per share [4] - Capital deployment for the first six months of the year reached $5.5 billion, surpassing the total for all of 2024 [4] - The adjusted debt to undepreciated equity ratio ended the quarter at 2.5 times, slightly increasing from the previous quarter [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial and residential lending contributed DE of $174 million for the quarter, with a loan portfolio growth of $946 million, bringing the total to $15.5 billion [5] - The residential lending portfolio ended the quarter at $2.3 billion, with $60 million in repayments [9] - The infrastructure lending segment contributed DE of $21 million, with a record $700 million of loans committed [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s active servicing portfolio ended the quarter at $10.3 billion, with $1 billion of new transfers dominated by office properties [11] - The CMBS portfolio increased by $55 million due to new purchases [12] - The weighted average risk rating of the portfolio remained stable at 2.9 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion is expected to enhance the company’s capabilities in the net lease sector, with a focus on leveraging existing expertise [13][18] - The company aims to grow its diversified business model, reducing reliance on CRE loans, which now represent only 52% of total assets compared to 65% in 2022 [22] - The strategy includes optimizing the balance sheet by refinancing at lower spreads and maintaining a strong liquidity position [14][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for lower interest rates and a recovery in the real estate market, which could lead to increased transaction volumes [29][30] - The company is well-positioned to navigate challenges and is focused on becoming investment grade, with plans to grow earnings materially over time [41][36] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a fortress balance sheet and the benefits of diversification in sustaining dividends [35][36] Other Important Information - The company received recognition from rating agencies for its diversity, leverage profile, liquidity position, and stable earnings [14] - The company has maintained its dividend for 47 consecutive quarters, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for CRE loan growth and impact of Fed rate cuts - Management expects to end the year close to $10 billion in CRE loans, with lower rates likely accelerating loan growth and refinancing opportunities [46][48] Question: Ramp up of the net lease portfolio business - The company is optimistic about growing the net lease portfolio, with potential for larger acquisitions as the pipeline rebuilds [56][60] Question: Sustainability of spreads in the infrastructure business - Management indicated that while spreads have widened, they are maintaining margins through more direct deals and expect continued growth in infrastructure origination [62][71] Question: Credit portfolio stabilization and hotel exposure - Management believes credit in the portfolio has stabilized, with no significant losses in the hotel sector, which comprises 6% of the overall asset base [78][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss of $1.3 per share and a distributable loss of $0.77 per share, with distributable earnings prior to realized losses at $0.10 per share [13] - The held for investment loan portfolio decreased to $5 billion at June 30 from $5.9 billion at March 31, primarily due to loan resolutions [13][14] - Total liquidity increased to $323 million as of August 5, representing a $221 million increase compared to December 31 [9][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company resolved eight loans totaling $873 million of UPB during the second quarter, including four loans paid off in full and four watch list loans [6][7] - Year-to-date resolutions total $1.9 billion of UPB, consisting of $1.55 billion of loan repayments and sales, and $305 million of multifamily property foreclosures [17][29] - The watch list loans decreased to 17 loans and $2.1 billion of UPB, a net decline of $758 million of UPB and seven loans from the first quarter [7][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The elevated rate environment remains a headwind for commercial real estate, but investor sentiment has improved and transaction volumes have been recovering [5] - The company has seen significant turnover in its loan portfolio, with a higher percentage of resolutions compared to peers [65] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company outlined three strategic priorities for 2025: resolving watch list loans, improving liquidity, and redeploying capital [5] - The management believes that their experience as a value-add owner and operator of real estate assets provides a competitive advantage in evaluating opportunities [10] - The company is optimistic about monetizing multifamily REO assets in the coming quarters [11][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the healing of the real estate capital markets and the potential for continued loan resolutions and liquidity generation [5][32] - The company is focused on addressing the upcoming maturity of its Term Loan B in August 2026, with potential uses for liquidity including partial paydowns or replacement financing [28][29] Other Important Information - The total CECL reserve on loans increased to $333 million or 6.4% of UPB at June 30, compared to $243 million or 4.1% at March 31, reflecting a conservative outlook amidst market uncertainty [22] - The company completed the commercial condomization of a mixed-use building in New York City, generating $29 million in gross proceeds [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the liquidity number reflect the discounted payoff of the New York City multifamily? - Yes, the $323 million amount reflects the liquidity generated by the New York multifamily loan in July [31] Question: What is the outlook for continued resolutions and liquidity generation in the second half? - The capital markets are healing, and additional payoffs are expected, but the company will rely more on regular repayments moving forward [32][34] Question: What are the signposts for deploying liquidity? - The company will continue to focus on deleveraging the balance sheet and may consider stock buybacks, but will prioritize resolving watch list assets [35][36] Question: Can you provide an update on the REO balance and strategies for the assets? - The REO balance is approximately $525 million, and the company is pursuing various strategies for asset sales and operational improvements [40][41] Question: How is the term loan refinancing process progressing? - The company is engaging with private credit providers and expects to reduce the size of the financing, while also considering preferred equity in the future [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic book value decreased by 1% to $13.69 per share, while GAAP book value also fell by 1% to $13.12 per share [14] - Distributable earnings (DE) for the quarter were $0.24 per share, down from $0.29 per share in the previous quarter, primarily due to credit losses [17] - GAAP earnings were $33.2 million or $0.22 per basic common share, driven by an increase in net interest income to $61.3 million [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sourced $876 million in loans and securities, including $500 million in non-QM loans and $217 million in business purpose loans [12][20] - The delinquency rate for loans over 60 days decreased from 7.5% to 7.3% [15][24] - Lima One originated $217 million in business purpose loans, with an increase in mortgage banking income from $5.4 million to $6.1 million [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market for securitized mortgage credit assets continues to deepen, with increased liquidity and strong investor appetite [6][9] - Mortgage credit spreads widened in April but retraced to levels seen at the end of Q1 by the end of the second quarter [6][22] - The company completed its eighteenth non-QM securitization in May, selling $291 million of bonds at an average coupon of 5.76% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue focusing on non-QM loans, business purpose loans, and agency securities, with plans to grow the business purpose loan originations [20][23] - The management is optimistic about the economic return potential of the portfolio, indicating that the economic earnings power is closer to a 10% dividend yield [29] - The company is actively resolving non-performing loans and expects to utilize additional loan sales to accelerate the resolution of underperforming assets [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that the economic and macro environments appear clearer as the year progresses, with resilient growth despite slower than expected rates [8][9] - There is a consensus for two rate cuts later this year, which is favorable for mortgage REITs [9] - The management expressed confidence in the current earnings power of the portfolio and the sustainability of the common dividend [18] Other Important Information - The company expects to lower its G&A expenses by 7% to 10% per year from 2024 levels due to ongoing expense reduction initiatives [18] - Subsequent to the quarter end, the economic book value is estimated to have increased by approximately 1% to 2% [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Economic return for the portfolio - Management discussed the economic return of the portfolio and indicated that the economic earnings power is much closer to a 10% dividend yield, with potential upside as capital is redeployed from troubled loans [28][29] Question: New loan officers at Lima One - The new hires are focused on the West and Midwest, with expectations for aggressive growth in the latter half of the year as they ramp up [40][41] Question: Capital allocation trends - Management indicated that they would continue to deploy capital across non-QM, HC, and business purpose loans, with a preference for increasing business purpose loan originations [33][49] Question: Distribution potential for new transitional loans - Management noted that they have been selling rental loans and expect to grow originations, with a balance between securitization financing and loan sales [56] Question: Execution risk for developers - Management stated that they are not seeing material pressure on rental income and exit prices, tracking these metrics month to month [65][66] Question: Relative risk of loan vintages - Management indicated that the 2023 vintage for multifamily loans was tougher, but overall LTVs are low, minimizing concerns about losses [67] Question: Callability of non-QM portfolio - Management explained that lower interest rates could lead to more callable deals, but the impact would be marginal due to offsetting swaps [70][72]

Company Strategy & Performance - Chimera Investment Corp is a hybrid mortgage REIT focused on diversified investment solutions across the mortgage credit product spectrum[10, 13] - The company reported earnings available for distribution of $039 per share[19] - Book value per share was $2091, a 12% decrease from the previous quarter[22] - Economic return for the quarter was 05%[19, 22] HomeXpress Acquisition - Chimera entered into a definitive agreement to acquire HomeXpress Mortgage Corp, expected to close in Q4 2025[11, 21, 22] - The acquisition consideration includes cash equal to HomeXpress's book value plus a $120 million premium and 2,077,151 shares of CIM common stock[22] - HomeXpress has originated over $107 billion in loans since 2016[25, 27] - HomeXpress generated $47 million in pre-tax earnings in 2024[27] Portfolio Composition & Activity - The company purchased $19 billion in notional Agency pass-throughs, with an additional $402 million settling in Q3[22] - Recourse leverage increased to 18x from 12x in Q1 due to growth in Agency RMBS allocation[22] - Loans under third-party asset management grew 43% year-over-year to $254 billion[57, 58]