地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 3.08%，报 60.14 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 2.76%，报 63.00 美元/桶。 2. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆期货跌 0.94%报 1052.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 2.59%报 470.75 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 1.22%报 524.50 美分/蒲式耳。 3.国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品表现疲软，纸浆跌 3.05%，玻 璃跌 2.6%，纯碱跌 2.26%，燃油跌 1.41%，低硫燃料油跌 1.2%。黑色系全线下 跌，焦煤跌 1.71%。农产品多数下跌，棕榈油跌近 1%。 原油主力合约收跌 2.07%报 478.0 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 0.29%报 785.02 元/克，沪银涨 0.12%报 8226 元/千克。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今 ...

胎年金属数据日报 周一期价冲高回落,盘面情绪在"减产"消息影响下略好了些,至少在这个消息驱动下,钢材可能还是最优多头配置品种, 现货跟涨略显乏力,成交尚可。市场传闻的28号会议暂时也没有新的消息,传闻搁置对行情无法产生新的驱动。宏观层 面,28号新闻发布会上能量化的增量信息不多,市场更希望看到有实打实的政策落地,或许才会更有信心;微观层面,供 需矛盾不突出,钢材库存还处于季节性改善的阶段,反馈到价格行为上,更多是一种"现实不差但预期很差" 的阶段, "预期差"来自于5月以后建材进入季节性淡季以及出口链条开始逐渐转弱,没有信心导致卖方持货意愿不高;品种估值并 不算高,单边投机追空的性价比不高。总体看,五一长假临近,单边敬口降低轻仓过节仍是主要思路。 【焦煤焦炭】第二轮提涨难落地,焦煤竞拍持续走弱 现货端,部分钢厂拒绝焦炭第二轮提涨,市场情绪较弱,炼焦煤竞拍持续走弱,成交价格以下跌为主,港口贸易准一焦炭服 价1350(->,炼焦煤价格指数1090.3(-2.0);蒙煤方面,甘其毛都口岸通关大幅下降,降库明显,但整体供应依然充 裕,市场弱稳运行,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤835(-),蒙5精煤1030 (-10),蒙 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with rapid rotation of hotspots, resulting in a rise of over 2% in the micro-cap stock index. More than 3,500 stocks in the two markets closed in the green [1] - The overall market is still in a "gap-filling" phase with a short-term improvement in risk appetite, suggesting a potential shift towards growth sectors after the holiday [1][8] Sector Performance - Chip stocks showed a rebound, with leading stock Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit of 20% increase. The automotive supply chain surged, particularly in components, with Jingjin Electric also hitting the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector strengthened, led by pesticides and disperse dyes, with Hongqiang Co. achieving six consecutive daily limits. The humanoid robot sector also saw gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The computing power industry continued its rebound, with Hongbo Co. achieving three consecutive daily limits. Other sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics also performed well [1] Individual Stock Movements - A total of 3,557 stocks rose while 1,674 fell, with 76 stocks hitting the daily limit and 62 stocks hitting the lower limit. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.05% at 3,286.65 points, with a trading volume of 430.9 billion yuan [2] - Main funds focused on accumulating stocks in the automotive parts, general equipment, and black home appliances sectors, with notable net inflows into stocks like Liou Co., Sichuan Changhong, and Bochuang Technology [3] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission are preparing to assist "Chinese concept stocks" wishing to return to the Hong Kong market, with adjustments to listing requirements and processes to attract more companies [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond funds to support the consumption of old goods, indicating strong market demand for such initiatives [5] Economic Outlook - Huatai Securities suggests that the market may maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday, with a focus on fundamental insights post-earnings disclosures. The emphasis remains on policy and domestic responses as the main trading themes [7] - Oriental Securities indicates that the market style may shift towards growth after the holiday, recommending sectors with policy catalysts and certainty in Q1 earnings, such as banking, electricity, and automotive [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming volatility in the commodity market during the May Day holiday, highlighting the potential impacts of various economic indicators and events on different commodities [2][3] Group 1: Market Volatility and Indicators - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility ahead of the May Day holiday, with historical data showing an average jump of 2.3% on the first trading day after the holiday over the past five years [2] - Key economic events and data releases include China's April official manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP employment change, the U.S. PCE price index, and the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized growth rate, all of which are expected to influence various commodities [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data on May 2 is particularly significant, as weaker-than-expected employment figures could lead to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting precious and base metals [2][3] Group 2: International Relations and Tariffs - A new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for May 3, which may impact oil and related products [3] - The U.S. is set to impose import tariffs on automotive parts produced overseas, which could affect commodities such as gold, rubber, aluminum, and copper [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

2025年04月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹 | 3 | | 硅铁：低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | Wi | | | | | | --- ...

【钢材】 | | | | Millia | ■这部落 | 黑巴至隔日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需环比下滑，回暖仍相对缺乏持续性，产量基本持平，库存继续下降，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷供需趋稳，库存延续下降态势,铁水产量上升至高位,随着吨钢利润下滑,后期复产将明显放缓。从下游行业看,基建、制 造业有所好转,地产销售、新开工障幅边际收窄,整体依然疲 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面，钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整，成材库存去化节奏减 慢，铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱，双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑，但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节，导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面，市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温，同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素， 但避险支撑逐步减弱，油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压，受库存高企及 气温回暖影响，供需宽松格局未改。短期来看，能源板块情绪趋于谨慎，关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面，聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落，甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压，盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进，但短期现实需求接力不足，化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面，油脂油料板块走高，受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱，消费提振 ...

金属期权 2025-04-28 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属上方空头压力下的盘整震荡，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系波动 较大，适合构建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属延续偏强走势创历史新高大幅回落后大幅波动，构建牛市价差组 合策略、做空波动率策略和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2506 | 77,470 | -170 | ...