——宏观数据观察 分析师： 事件要点： 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年5月9日 [Table_Title] 4月"抢转口"效应推动进出口好于预期 宏 观 据海关统计，中国2025年4月进出口总额（以美元计）5352.05亿美元，同比 4.6%，前值为5%，下降0.4%。其中，出口3156.92亿美元，同比上升8.1%，预期 1.9%，前值上升12.4%，下降4.3%，但出口远超预期；进口2195.12亿美元，同比 下降0.2%，预期下降5.9%，前值下降4.3%，降幅收窄4.1%；贸易顺差968.1亿美元， 预期890亿美元，前值1026.4亿美元。 摘要： 东 海 研 究 东 海 观 察 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月我国出口受海外抢转口效应等因素影响，虽有所回落但远超市场预期。4月以来，欧美 制造业景气有所回升，增长有所加快，欧美商品需求短期有所加快，但是由于高关税原因， 欧美抢转口补 ...

2025 年贸易行业分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 （一）进出口贸易运行情况 2024 年，中国进出口贸易总额稳步增长，累计出口同比上升明显，海外需求韧 性较强；受国内需求较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下跌影响，累计进口同比增速下滑。 2025 年一季度，在外部困难挑战增多的情况下，中国外贸进出口实现平稳开局，美 国加征高额关税对我国外贸出口的制约预计二季度会逐步显现。 根据海关总署数据，2024 年中国进出口商品金额总值 61622.89 亿美元，同比上 升 3.8%。其中，累计出口金额 35772.22 亿美元，同比上升 5.9%，自 5 月以后累计出 口同比整体呈明显上升趋势，主要受半导体行业周期性回暖及消费电子、汽车、船舶 等产品竞争力提升等因素综合影响；累计进口金额 25850.67 亿美元，同比上升 1.1%， 自 8 月以来累计进口同比缓慢下滑，主要系国内需求端较弱叠加全球大宗商品价格下 跌所致；2024 年全年贸易顺差 9921.55 亿美元，较 2023 年增加 1700.53 亿美元，贸 易顺差有明显增长。 2025 年一季度，在 ...

Core Points - The UK and India have reached a significant bilateral trade agreement after three years of negotiations, which is considered the most important trade deal for the UK post-Brexit [1][2][4] - The agreement is expected to increase the annual bilateral trade volume by £25.5 billion (approximately 246.3 billion RMB) by 2040 [2] - Both countries are eager for this agreement to support their economies, with the UK aiming to reduce trade barriers and India seeking to boost its export trade [2][4] Negotiation Background - Trade negotiations began in January 2022 under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and continued through various administrations, with a renewed focus under the Labour government [4] - The UK government has emphasized that reaching this trade agreement is a top priority, especially after the elections [4] - The agreement is seen as a major economic milestone for both nations, with UK Prime Minister Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Modi highlighting its ambitious and mutually beneficial nature [4][6] Key Provisions - Under the agreement, 90% of tariffs on Indian exports to the UK will be reduced, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within ten years [4] - Tariffs on various UK exports to India, including high-end cars and whisky, will also see significant reductions, with whisky tariffs dropping from 150% to 75% [6] - The agreement is expected to provide UK consumers with lower prices and more choices in various goods, including clothing and seafood [5] Economic Context - India is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and is projected to become the third-largest in the coming years, making it an attractive partner for the UK [7] - The agreement is seen as a strategic move for both countries to diversify their trade relationships amid global economic uncertainties [7] - The negotiations faced challenges, including India's request for easier immigration access for its citizens to the UK, which was not included in the final agreement [6]

Group 1: 137th Canton Fair Achievements - The 137th Canton Fair achieved record numbers in participating enterprises and foreign buyers, showcasing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade despite a complex external environment [1][2] - Over 455 million products were displayed, including 1.02 million new products, 880,000 green low-carbon products, and 320,000 smart products, highlighting the acceleration of new trade dynamics driven by technological innovation and green development [1][2] - The number of foreign buyers reached over 280,000 from 219 countries and regions, marking a 17.3% increase compared to the previous spring fair, indicating strong global confidence in Chinese manufacturing and the market [1][2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Policies - The Canton Fair implemented a 50% reduction in booth fees for export exhibitors to support enterprises in facing external risks, which received positive feedback from participating companies [2] - The fair generated an export intention transaction of $25.44 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, with over 60% of transactions coming from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3: International Consumption Season - The 2025 International Consumption Season was launched on May 1, focusing on enhancing the implementation of tax refund policies for departing tourists, with significant sales growth observed during the "May Day" holiday [3][4] - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while inbound tourism sales surged by approximately 90% [3] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce and Trade Relations - The U.S. cancellation of the small package tax exemption for China is expected to negatively impact businesses and consumers in both countries, but the momentum of cross-border e-commerce remains strong [5] - China is committed to expanding its participation in international trade agreements, including the CPTPP, to enhance its trade relations and align with high-standard international economic rules [6]

24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | | 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 出口板块综述：关税影响显现，企业表现 分化，结构成长公司延续靓丽表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [关税影响初步落地，龙头海外产能优势凸显、短期订单 Table_Summary um ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the successful conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement between the UK and India after three years of negotiations, which aims to significantly reduce tariffs on a wide range of goods [1][3][5] - The agreement stipulates that 90% of UK imports to India will see a reduction in tariffs, with 85% of these tariffs eliminated over a period of 10 years [1][5] - Specific tariff reductions include a decrease in whisky and gin tariffs from 150% to 75%, eventually dropping to 40% in 10 years, and a reduction in automotive tariffs from 100% to 10% under a quota system [1][3] Group 2 - The UK and India both have a strong need for this trade agreement, as the UK seeks to expand its export markets in response to increased tariffs from the US, while India aims to boost its global trade share [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a significant milestone in strengthening economic and strategic relations between the two countries, with potential for increased trade, investment, and cooperation opportunities [3][4] - The UK government projects that the agreement will contribute an additional £4.8 billion to the UK GDP annually and increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion by 2040 [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement is welcomed by industry organizations, highlighting its potential to create substantial opportunities for foreign trade amid rising global trade uncertainties [3][4] - The UK and Indian governments have adopted a pragmatic approach in negotiations, setting aside previously contentious issues such as immigration, which were not included in the final agreement [3][4] - The deal is expected to enhance India's market share in labor-intensive products, such as clothing and footwear, due to the significant reduction in tariffs on Indian exports to the UK [5]

此外，稳定市场、稳定预期离不开对直接受到外需冲击的出口企业、小微企业及就业人群进行纾困和扶 持，笔者建议在上述政策措施之外，设立不低于5000亿元的稳外贸与稳出口再贷款，重点针对劳动密集 型出口企业的转内销、转产业或者产能出海活动进行金融支持。 经济良性循环离不开各个环节的协调和衔接，特别是近年来，随着生产效率和生产能力的提升、平台经 济的发展、资本稀缺性的降低，以及市场中介环节的日益消解，生产、投资、消费和出口之间的耦合度 越来越高，任何一个环节的滞后都有可能带来经济结构间的负面拖累，这也是为什么近年来越来越多的 政策都要以"一揽子"形式出台的原因。 当前美国对华出口设定的综合税率超过100%，输美产品带来的贸易顺差占我国贸易顺差总额的36%， 外需订单的减少不仅直接对净出口带来压力，还会间接影响国内的制造业投资与生产，而出口转内销也 会带来供需失衡进一步加大的风险，产能过剩既不利于价格水平和利润水平的改善，也不利于形成实体 经济的融资需求，最后还会制约货币政策的效果。 张林/文5月7日国新办举办新闻发布会，邀请"一行一会一局"介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 期"有关情况。从会议举行的背景上来看，外部关 ...

Core Insights - Shandong Province achieved a record high agricultural product export value of 39.95 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 6.7% increase and accounting for 22.9% of the national agricultural product export value, maintaining its position as the largest agricultural exporter in China [1] Group 1: Agricultural Export Performance - The main agricultural products contributing to the export growth include vegetables and edible fungi, which reached 10.94 billion yuan with an 8.5% increase; aquatic products at 8.08 billion yuan with a 17.2% increase; and dried and fresh fruits and nuts at 2.64 billion yuan with a 17.3% increase, collectively representing 54.2% of the total agricultural export value [1] - The customs authorities are enhancing smart customs initiatives and implementing a series of facilitation measures to promote the international market presence of Shandong's high-quality agricultural products [1] Group 2: Innovative Measures for Export Facilitation - Innovative measures have been introduced to expedite agricultural product exports, such as data sharing with agricultural and big data departments, which reduced customs clearance time by 6 days for edible fungi exports [2] - A new integrated management model for meat exports to the EU has been implemented, reducing clearance time from 5 days to seconds, resulting in a 29.6% increase in meat exports to the EU in Q1 [2] - The use of international road transport (TIR) for fresh vegetables has led to a 56.4% increase in agricultural product exports via road in Q1 [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Expansion - A comprehensive set of ten measures has been established to support the development of national agricultural open development pilot zones, with the Weifang National Agricultural Comprehensive Zone exporting agricultural products worth 4.04 billion yuan, a 5.4% increase in Q1 [2] - The establishment of the Yellow River Basin Agricultural and Food Products Evaluation Base Alliance has helped address foreign technical trade barriers, leading to significant export growth for garlic (14%), honey (63.6%), and broccoli (36.8%) [2] - Shandong's agricultural products were exported to 192 countries and regions globally in Q1, with exports to RCEP member countries totaling 19.68 billion yuan, accounting for 49.2% of the province's agricultural export value [3]

泰国联合商业集团：泰国出口受到美国关税的压力。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the release of ten measures by the Changsha Municipal Bureau of Commerce aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and boosting the confidence of foreign trade enterprises through financial support and targeted policies [1][3] - The measures include financial support of up to 3 million yuan for individual enterprises, focusing on expanding international markets, increasing exports of specialty products, and supporting key product imports [1][3] - Changsha will implement a "dual coverage" strategy for domestic and international exhibitions, providing subsidies of up to 1 million yuan for enterprises participating in major trade fairs [1][2] Group 2 - In the area of cross-border e-commerce and new foreign trade formats, Changsha plans to create demonstration clusters and hold cross-border e-commerce trade fairs, offering support of up to 800,000 yuan for brand promotion and independent site construction [1][2] - The city aims to promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade by cultivating integrated enterprises and facilitating market channel connections [2] - To enhance the quality and efficiency of the industrial chain, Changsha will establish an import industry alliance, providing financing interest subsidies of up to 200,000 yuan for companies dealing with encouraged imported goods [2]