苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 13 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 【交易策略】 单边：震荡偏弱 套利：观望 期权：卖出看涨期权 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 本周纯苯和加氢苯开工提升，纯苯下游需求整体稳定，主港库存小幅下滑，纯苯对苯乙烯价差扩大，纯苯下游利润压缩，山 东流向华东的纯苯套利窗口关闭。6月多套重整和歧化装置检修结束，裕龙DCC、万华乙烯裂解以及埃克森美孚20万吨装置 投产， 裕龙石化乙烯和镇海裂解新装置有投产计划，纯苯进口到港依然偏多，随着纯苯新装置投产增加，纯苯未来供需结构 预计转为宽松。 ◼ 本周苯乙烯供增需减，港口库存小幅上升，苯乙烯现货基差走弱。苯乙烯非一体装置利润收窄，下游3S利润扩大。本周盛虹 45万吨/年苯乙烯装置重启投料，6月中旬，恒力、浙石化检修装置计划重启，苯乙烯供应预期增加。近期苯乙烯到 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （ 大越期货投资咨询部 6.3-6.6 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：甲醇市场多空因素交织，预计下周市场震荡为主，局部或差异化调整。港口船龄限制政策或 继续支撑期现货市场，但港口库存累积，叠加内地至港口套利开启，短期继续上涨空间受限，预计下周港口 甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，底部空间下部分贸易商介入积极性增强，投机需求增加，周内多数产 区工厂出货相对顺畅。但同时因内地甲醇开工绝对高位、部分下游步入传统高温需求淡季，高供应低需求格 局维持，另外西北个别厂家库存偏高，以及当前煤制甲醇利润可观仍有让利空间下，多数业者心态谨慎，多 空交织预计下周地甲醇窄幅震荡概率较大。需持续关注宏观外围变化 ...

Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][3] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline in CPI [2] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry slightly decreased by 0.3% to 1.0% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4][5] - The month-on-month PPI decline was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices and a 3.5% decrease in refined oil product manufacturing prices [4] - Some sectors showed marginal price improvements, with consumer demand policies positively impacting prices in certain industries, such as a 12.8% increase in the price of arts and crafts and a 0.8% rise in footwear manufacturing [5]

Group 1 - The main reason for the month-on-month decline in PPI is the impact of international input factors leading to price decreases in related domestic industries [1] - The decline in international crude oil prices has resulted in a 5.6% decrease in the prices of the oil and gas extraction industry, a 3.5% decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing prices, and a 1.2% decrease in the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing [1] - These three industries collectively contributed to a month-on-month decline in PPI of approximately 0.23 percentage points, accounting for over 50% of the total decline [1] Group 2 - Domestic energy and raw material prices have also experienced a phase of decline, with coal mining and washing prices decreasing by 3.0% due to seasonal demand factors [1] - The prices of coal processing have decreased by 1.1%, while the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products industry have both seen a 1.0% price decline [1] - The combined effect of these four industries contributed to a month-on-month decline in PPI of approximately 0.18 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The company Xingchuan New Materials has completed a Series B financing round of several hundred million yuan, led by Quzhou Industrial Investment, with participation from existing shareholders including CICC Capital and Zhejiang University Youchuang [1] - The main research areas of Xingchuan New Materials include the high-performance, functionalization, and industrialization of polyolefin elastomers, having invented new materials such as polyethylene rubber and multi-block branched polyethylene [1] - In November 2023, the company established the world's first kiloton-level pilot plant for hyperbranched polyolefin elastomers in collaboration with Chuanhua Chemical, achieving continuous stable operation [1] Group 2 - In November 2024, the company will commence construction of the world's first industrial plant with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of hyperbranched polyolefin elastomers in Longyou, Zhejiang [2] - The project utilizes a self-developed cost-effective catalyst to produce polyolefin elastomers from ethylene as the sole raw material, offering advantages such as low investment, low cost, and low energy consumption [1] - The company has received recognition from leading downstream users for multiple product grades, which can be widely applied in fields such as photovoltaic adhesive films, toughening modification, foaming, wire and cable, waterproof membranes, and hot melt adhesives [1]

Ultramid ® Advanced N3U42G6阻燃材料符合EN 50642标准， 不含卤化物，可显著延长电气电子元件的使用寿命 。它能够可有效防止暴露在高 温高湿环境下的精密电子部件发生接触腐蚀及后续故障。该材料在0.25毫米厚度下即可达到UL94 V-0级防火标准，同时具备持久颜色保持能力，这 对高压区域的安全应用至关重要： 其色彩稳定性和耐热老化性能完全满足各项严苛要求。 巴斯夫内部测试证实， 该材料在150℃高温环境下经过1,000小时仍能保持色彩稳定性。 巴斯夫可直接提供预着色版本（如电动交通标准色RAL 2003橙），亦可自行着色——超过50种经认证的无机与有机着色剂可供选择，这些着色剂的热稳定性最高可达350°C。 【DT新材料】 获悉， 近日， 巴斯夫 推出了Ultramid® Advanced N3U42G6，进一步丰富其聚邻苯二甲酰胺 (PPA) 产品组合。 这款聚酰胺9T材料采用无卤阻燃 剂，可最大程度地降低电动汽车电气电子 (E&E) 部件中金属触点的电腐蚀，可提高电动汽车逆变器、直流-直流转换器和电池等高压（HV）连接器的安全性和耐 用性 。 Ultramid®Advanced ...

Group 1: IPO and Financing Overview - Three companies are scheduled for IPO review next week (June 9-13), with a total fundraising target of 5.71 billion yuan [1] - The companies include Sanxie Electric, United Power, and Daoshengtianhe, with respective fundraising amounts of 1.59 billion yuan, 4.85 billion yuan, and 693.55 million yuan [2][3] Group 2: Company Profiles - **Sanxie Electric**: A high-tech enterprise specializing in the research, manufacturing, and sales of control motors, with a registered capital of 53.11 million yuan and a net profit of 56.36 million yuan in the last year [3][6] - **United Power**: Focuses on electric drive systems and power systems, with a registered capital of 2.12 billion yuan and a net profit of 93.59 million yuan in the last year [7] - **Daoshengtianhe**: Engaged in the research and production of new materials, with a registered capital of 527.52 million yuan and a net profit of 15.55 million yuan in the last year [8][9] Group 3: Fundraising Projects - **Sanxie Electric**: Plans to use the raised funds for expanding production of energy-saving control motors, building a research center, and supplementing working capital, with a total investment of 162.79 million yuan [6] - **United Power**: Aims to invest in the production of core components for new energy vehicles, with a total project investment of 668.10 million yuan [7] - **Daoshengtianhe**: Plans to invest in the production of high-end adhesives and composite resin systems, with a total project investment of 705.70 million yuan [11]

天眼查资料显示，四川高景太阳能科技有限公司，成立于2022年，位于宜宾市，是一家以从事电气机械 和器材制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本100000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，四川高景太阳能科 技有限公司共对外投资了3家企业，参与招投标项目60次，专利信息114条，此外企业还拥有行政许可92 个。 高景太阳能股份有限公司，成立于2019年，位于珠海市，是一家以从事化学原料和化学制品制造业为主 的企业。企业注册资本37509.1736万。通过天眼查大数据分析，高景太阳能股份有限公司共对外投资了 10家企业，参与招投标项目38次，财产线索方面有商标信息76条，专利信息299条，此外企业还拥有行 政许可18个。 金融界2025年6月7日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，四川高景太阳能科技有限公司、高景太阳能股份 有限公司取得一项名为"一种固液分离装置"的专利，授权公告号CN222943686U，申请日期为2024年08 月。 专利摘要显示，本实用新型公开了一种固液分离装置，旨在提供一种可靠性高、占地小、分离效果好和 无动力运行的固液分离装置。本实用新型包括分离器本体和清液收集管，分离器本体中自上而下依次连 通有进液腔、 ...

Group 1: Historical and Cultural Significance - Jilin City, known as "the northern Jiangnan," is rich in historical and cultural heritage, with the Songhua River serving as a central axis for its development [3][5] - The city has numerous historical sites, including the Dong and Xi Tuan Mountain sites and the Longtan Mountain City, showcasing its long-standing cultural lineage [3][5] - Jilin City is recognized as a birthplace of the Manchu culture and has a deep-rooted cultural confidence stemming from its historical significance [5][6] Group 2: Industrial Development - Jilin City has a strong industrial base, with significant projects established during the early years of New China, including the first bag of fertilizer and the first barrel of dye [7][10] - The city is undergoing a transformation with the relocation and modernization of its industrial zones, such as the Hada Bay Industrial Area, which is shifting from traditional industries to creative and modern sectors [12][14] - The construction of a new 1.2 million tons/year ethylene project is set to enhance Jilin's chemical industry, marking a significant transition from a fuel-based to a product-oriented economy [14][15] Group 3: Winter Sports and Tourism - Jilin City is leveraging its rich ice and snow resources to promote winter sports, becoming a hub for skiing and related activities [19][21] - The city is actively hosting international events, such as the World Cold Region Ice and Snow Economy Conference, to boost its profile in the global ice and snow industry [21][22] - The development of facilities and infrastructure for winter sports is contributing to the city's ambition to become a world-class ice and snow industry base [21][22]