证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，智谱发布 GLM- 4-32B-0414 系 列 — — AI 动态汇总 20250421》 - 2025.04.23 《国家队交易特征显著，短期指数仍交 易补缺预期，TMT 类题材仍需等待—— 行业轮动周报 20250427》- 2025.04.21 《小市值强势，动量风格占优——中邮 因子周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《基本面与量价共振，如遇回调即是买 点——微盘股指数周报 20250420》 – 2025.04.21 《Meta LIama 4 开源，OpenAI 启动先 锋计划——AI 动态汇总 20250414》 - 2025.04.15 《融资盘被动爆仓导致大幅净流出， GRU 模型仍未配置成长——行业轮动周 报 2025 ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，双硅震荡下行 p 2 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，双硅震荡下行 锰 硅 供应：主产区产量持续下降，但近期降幅放缓。依据钢联数据，截至4月25日当周，锰硅周产量为18.6万吨，日均产量2.66万吨，周环 比下降1.35%，降幅略低于此前市场预期，同比仍然增加。 需求：钢招持续进行，定价逐渐下调，下游采购意愿相对有限。主流钢招定价，河北某大型钢厂4月锰硅合金采购11400吨，较3月采 购量增加400吨，承兑含税到厂价为5950元/吨，较上月环比下降450元/吨，主流钢招定价公布后，其余钢招陆续开展。 库存：样本企业库存持续增加，仓单数量仍然较高，钢厂锰硅库存偏低。本月样本企业库存环比持续增加，截至4月25日数据，63家 样本企业库存合计为18.18万吨，环比增加2.42万吨，增幅为15.36%。截止4月24日，锰硅仓单数量123183张，有效预报10301张，合计133484 张，折约66.7万吨。4月钢 ...

2025年4月28日 [Table_Title] 美国持续释放关税缓和信号，股指整体反弹 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3786.99 点，较前值上升 0.39%；累计成交 10914 亿元，日均成交 2183 亿元，较前值下降 147 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17916 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是综合金融(6.07%)、汽车(4.94%)、 通信(3.16%)、电力设备及新能源(3.07%)、综合(2.77%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是交通运输(-0.88%)、煤炭(-1.21%)、农林牧渔(-1.38%)、食品饮料(- 2.40%)、消费者服务(-3.70%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-12.19 点、-3.81 点、 -44.98 点、-54.50 点。前一周同期值分别为-6.82 点、-3.10 点、-5.81 点、 6.24 点。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-35.60 点 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报4.21-4.25 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 原料端，锰矿市场成交冷清，锰矿价格承压下行。供应端，硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，多交付长协订单，散单成交冷 清。硅锰厂受成本倒挂影响，减停产意愿偏弱。需求端，下游采购方对硅锰需求疲软，仍需等待终端黑色系需求释放。 下周行情预测： 硅锰市场供需双弱，现货价格偏弱运行，预计下周锰硅价格偏弱为主。 2 0吨 500000吨 1000000吨 1500000吨 2000000吨 2500000吨 硅锰企业：产能：中国（月） 2016-06 2017-03 2017-12 2018-09 2019-06 2020-03 2020-12 2021-09 2022-06 2023-03 2023-12 2024-0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-28锰硅早报 每日观点 锰硅2509： 2 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿市场成交冷清，锰矿价格承压下行。供应端，硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，多交付长协订单，散单 成交冷清。硅锰厂受成本倒挂影响，减停产意愿偏弱。需求端，下游采购方对硅锰需求疲软，仍需等待终端黑色系需求释 放；中性。 2.基差：现货价5580元/吨，09合约基差-216元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存116500吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数16.27天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格偏弱运行；SM2509：5750-5950震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024- ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 28 日 硅铁：低位震荡 锰硅：低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2506 | 5640 | -18 | 118,535 | 168,404 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5704 | -20 | 27,736 | 93,306 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5742 | -24 | 54,556 | 62,247 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5796 | -26 | 215,568 | 379,691 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5550 | - | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn ...

Core Viewpoint - Tian Gong International's subsidiary, Tian Gong Co., has initiated its IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, offering 60 million shares at a price of 3.94 RMB per share, leading to a market valuation of 2.548 billion RMB before the exercise of the over-allotment option [1][3][11] Group 1: IPO Details - Tian Gong Co. is issuing 60 million shares, representing 9.28% of the post-issue total share capital, with a potential increase to 69 million shares (10.52%) if the over-allotment option is exercised [1][3] - The IPO is set to open for subscription on April 28, 2025, with a direct pricing method used to determine the share price [3] - The strategic placement of shares is 30%, with 70% allocated for online issuance, reflecting a commitment to retail investors [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Gong Co. has shown significant revenue growth from 283 million RMB in 2021 to 1.035 billion RMB in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.23%, 35.65%, and 170.05% respectively [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company also increased from 20.34 million RMB in 2021 to 170 million RMB in 2023, with growth rates of 67.87%, 244%, and 142.57% [6] - For 2024, the projected revenue is 801 million RMB, with a slight increase in net profit to 172 million RMB [6] Group 3: Industry Position and Expansion - The titanium and titanium alloy materials industry in China faces structural overcapacity in low-end products, while high-end products are in short supply [7] - Tian Gong Co. is expanding into high-value sectors such as 3D printing, aerospace fasteners, and medical titanium materials, having achieved significant progress in these areas [7] - The company has received EN9100 certification for aerospace-grade titanium materials and ISO 13485 certification for medical titanium products, enhancing its market credibility [7] Group 4: Future Prospects and Valuation - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to build a production line with an annual capacity of 3,000 tons of high-end titanium and titanium alloy rods and wires, increasing total capacity from 7,000 tons to 10,000 tons [8] - Compared to peers, Tian Gong Co. has a static P/E ratio of 14.98, significantly lower than the average of 50.64 for comparable companies, indicating a potential undervaluation [11]

Core Insights - 康盛股份 reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 712 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising to 12.54 million yuan, up 434.1% [1] - The company has seen a shift in its shareholder structure, with five new major shareholders, including UBS AG, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, indicating increased institutional interest [1] - 康盛股份 is implementing a new strategic layout focusing on its core home appliance business while expanding its liquid cooling and copper alloy segments, aiming for high-quality development [1][2] Financial Performance - The main business income from the home appliance sector was 2.26 billion yuan, while the automotive sector generated 260.62 million yuan [1] - The liquid cooling and copper alloy businesses also showed growth, with revenues of 3.88 million yuan and 3.42 million yuan, respectively [2] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes its "one main, two wings" strategy, where the home appliance sector serves as the leading force, while the liquid cooling and copper alloy sectors provide strong support for growth [2] - For 2025, 康盛股份 plans to increase R&D investment in the liquid cooling segment, focusing on IDC and new energy applications, and aims to enhance product design and performance [2]

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 硅铁仍然受到煤价影响，5 月仍然是动力煤的淡季，原料下行预计没有本 质改变。但伴随 4 月硅铁减产，市场供需会有所转暖。产业链来看，原料利空， 供需偏平，5 月震荡为主，等待夏季煤电旺季能否给硅铁带来明显支撑。 国信期货铁合金月报 煤系下跌拖累铁合金下行 五月暂时观望 铁合金 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 2025 年 4 月锰硅期货价格阴跌为主，期货主力合约从 2505 换仓至 2509， 截至 4 月 25 日锰硅 2509 合约收于 5796 元/吨，环比 3 月下跌 5.66%。从基本 面来看，锰硅供需状况较平，产量在 3 月回升后 4 月明显回落，日均产量处于 低位，但锰硅库存仍然上升，市场累积的过剩仍在，锰矿库存低位震荡，但近 期矿山发运及锰矿到港正常，锰矿略有缺口，但预期南 32 的澳矿在 2 季度恢 复发运。锰硅绝对价格较低，基本面未有明显驱动。宏观来看，4 月后伴随宏 观风险上升，工业品普跌，对锰硅产生利空压制。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 硅铁 4 月走势震荡下跌。基本面上看，硅铁走势依赖电价，电价和煤电、 新能源发电及火电需求息息相关，4 月煤 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Index Long-term and Short-term Moving Averages) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the Wind All A Index to identify the overall market environment and potential trend shifts[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Compute the relative distance between the two moving averages: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} $$ - A negative distance indicates the short-term average is below the long-term average, signaling a potential downtrend. Conversely, a positive distance suggests an uptrend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies the market's transition to a downtrend when the distance narrows and becomes negative, providing actionable insights for timing decisions[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with turnaround potential or strong growth drivers[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific metrics and trends to identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or those benefiting from structural growth themes. - Recommended sectors include: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - Low-valued sectors like new energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors driven by domestic substitution, such as AI chips and information innovation (Xinchuang)[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential, aligning with macroeconomic and structural trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, by leveraging beta factors[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta coefficients of various sectors to identify those with higher sensitivity to market movements. - Emphasize sectors like technology, including AI chips and information innovation, which are expected to outperform due to domestic substitution trends[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, aligning with market trends and policy support[2][10]. 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation and trend signals[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Use valuation metrics such as PE and PB ratios of the Wind All A Index: - PE is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level. - PB is at the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation level. - Combine valuation insights with trend signals (e.g., moving average distances) to recommend a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and trend factors[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - **Distance between 20-day and 120-day moving averages**: -3.08% (indicating a narrowing gap and a potential downtrend)[2][9][13] - **Profitability Effect**: -1.7% (indicating negative short-term market sentiment)[2][10][13] 2. Position Management Model - **PE Ratio**: 50th percentile (moderate valuation level)[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 20th percentile (relatively low valuation level)[3][10] - **Recommended Equity Allocation**: 50% for absolute return products[3][10] 3. Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - New energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors (e.g., AI chips, information innovation)[2][10][13] 4. TWO BETA Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Technology sectors, including AI chips and information innovation, driven by domestic substitution trends[2][10][13]