摘要 A 股盈利预计在 2025 年呈逐级上升趋势，与市场普遍预期存在差异， 历史数据显示扣非净利润累计增速已连续下降 15 个季度，低基数将为 2025 年业绩带来强支撑。 中报业绩预告显示，A 股亏损比例接近 2008 年金融危机后水平，预示 市场正在经历出清过程，上证 50 业绩预喜率较高，而科创 50 和创业板 指的业绩预喜率也特别高。 2025 年下半年 PPI 预计将稳定，监管层可能出台需求端维稳政策，如 大基建项目和城市更新，以支持企业盈利增速进入上行通道。 2025 年中报业绩回暖的细分行业包括生猪养殖、宠物食品、家电、轻 工消费、化学制药、CXO、电子、通信设备、计算机、游戏、汽车零部 件、军工、有色金属、氟化工、农化制品、水泥及风电等。 家电行业外销维持高增长，国内以旧换新政策提升均价，美的和格力等 重点公司净利润增长约 15%。汽车行业各车企盈利分化明显，零部件企 业盈利能力稳健。 Q&A 申万宏源对于 2025 年上市公司盈利趋势的预测是什么？ 根据申万宏源的分析，2024 年底已经确定了连续下行 15 个季度的盈利底部。 2025 年第一季度的数据超出预期，表明盈利周期的下行已经结束 ...

摩根士丹利：中国消费者 20250725 摘要 2025 年中国零售销售额小幅改善，预计增长 4%-5%，成为新常态，得 益于政府对耐用品的补贴。必需品增长相对较高，可选消费受影响较大。 关注原材料价格对各细分市场毛利率的影响，如黄金和棕榈油价格上涨 可能对面条和食品公司造成压力。 消费者价格指数与消费股估值呈正相关。当前通缩压力下，消费股整体 市盈率较低，收益增长预计在低个位数到 10%之间。南向资金流入香港 市场的大中华区消费领域增加，但需更多宏观经济改善和跨境经济复苏 以吸引全球投资者。 新旧消费领域表现分化加剧，新兴消费公司实现卓越增长，部分股票涨 幅超 150%，而表现最差股票下跌 9-30%。白酒类股票市值占比下降， 大型家电受益于出口和补贴恢复至 2021 年水平，新兴消费股占比提升， 传统及新兴类别交易价格接近历史底部。 酒类市场 2025 年仍面临挑战，企业需求疲软，政府加强管控，批发价 格下降趋势趋于稳定，预计补货延续至三四季度。啤酒价格上涨动力减 弱，烈酒行业处于过渡期，餐厅需求承压。关注第四季度旺季批发价格 能否稳定。 Q&A 当前中国消费行业的主要驱动因素是什么？ 中国消费行业的主要 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of new advertising laws on the gaming industry and e-commerce platforms, particularly focusing on tax implications and advertising costs [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Advertising Law Changes - The new advertising law consolidates information service fees, technical service fees, and advertising publication fees into a single category of advertising fees, resulting in increased costs for companies, particularly in the gaming sector [1][3]. - The maximum tax rate for these fees has increased from 6% to 19%, with any amount exceeding the annual revenue deduction limit of 15% subject to a 25% corporate income tax [1][5]. Impact on Gaming Industry - Marketing expenses in the gaming industry typically account for 30%-50% of revenue, significantly exceeding the 15% deduction limit, leading to additional tax liabilities [1][5]. - The new regulations are expected to reduce advertising spending in the gaming sector by approximately 30%, with an overall contraction of about 15% anticipated for the year [2][20]. Company Responses - Companies are implementing measures such as expense splitting, establishing compliance departments, and adjusting contract processes to manage the new tax implications [4][6]. - For large clients, companies may absorb part of the tax burden to maintain relationships and discuss cost-sharing strategies [6][4]. Challenges Faced by Advertisers - Game advertisers face difficulties with Pixel integration, particularly large companies that struggle with security and internal risk controls, impacting their advertising costs [6]. - Domestic companies must comply with local tax regulations despite having overseas entities, leading to increased operational costs [8]. Financial Reporting Implications - Advertising expenses must now be classified as sales expenses, limiting the deductible amount and increasing tax liabilities for companies that previously classified these as cost items [7][10]. - The shift in classification is expected to raise effective tax rates and reduce net profit margins for gaming companies, especially those listed on A-shares [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The new tax regulations are likely to push advertisers to discontinue investments in unprofitable products and focus on developing new offerings [13]. - The competitive landscape may shift, favoring larger companies with established products that rely less on advertising, while smaller companies, particularly in the casual gaming sector, may face significant pressure [14][15]. E-commerce Sector Adaptations - E-commerce platforms are less affected due to their ability to categorize advertising costs differently, often treating them as production costs rather than advertising fees [21][17]. - Platforms like Bilibili and Douyin are more impacted due to their reliance on gaming-related content and advertising revenue [22]. Conclusion - The new advertising law and tax regulations are reshaping the financial landscape for the gaming industry and e-commerce platforms, leading to increased costs, strategic shifts in advertising spending, and potential market consolidation [20][24].

Summary of 德昌股份 Conference Call Company Overview - 德昌股份 specializes in small home appliance OEM and automotive motor businesses, with over 85% of its revenue coming from small appliance OEMs, serving clients like TTI, Shakunija, and HOT [4][5] Industry Insights - The small home appliance OEM business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% from 2020 to 2024, reaching approximately 1.386 billion yuan, driven by new client orders from HOT and Shakunija [2][6] - The automotive motor business, focusing on EPS (Electric Power Steering) motors, is expected to expand from 200 million yuan in 2023 to 400 million yuan, with a projected CAGR of over 50% for the next three years [2][13] Key Points Small Appliance OEM Business - The growth strategy involves expanding both client base and product categories, transitioning from component manufacturing to full machine OEM since partnering with TTI in 2007 [5] - Revenue from small appliances surged from 375 million yuan in 2020 to 1.386 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a strong demand from new clients [6] - HOT's supply scale is expected to reach approximately 700 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40%, and is projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025 [9][10] - Shakunija has emerged as the fastest-growing client, significantly contributing to revenue growth [11] Automotive Motor Business - The EPS penetration rate reached 93% in 2021 and continues to rise, with domestic brands gaining market share due to technological advancements and cost advantages [13] - The automotive motor business is expected to see a significant increase in profitability, with gross margins projected to rise from single digits in 2022 to over 20% by 2024 [13][14] Financial Performance - The company experienced a slight decline in profit margins in the first half of 2025 due to capacity transfer and tariff impacts, but margins are expected to improve in the second half as production ramps up [3][15] - The overall revenue growth for the next three years is anticipated to exceed 20%, with a current valuation of around 16 times earnings, indicating potential for recovery [15] Additional Insights - The company has proactively shifted production capacity overseas to mitigate tariff impacts, with approximately 30% of production now in Vietnam and a new factory in Thailand expected to produce 5 million units annually [2][7] - The collaboration with TTI remains strong, with expectations for stable orders and potential for increased order concentration in the future [8] - The automotive motor segment is positioned for significant growth, with a focus on high-performance steering systems and a shift towards domestic production to replace Japanese brands [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding 德昌股份's business operations, market positioning, and financial outlook, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives and growth potential in both the small appliance and automotive sectors.

策略对话金属：电解铝反内卷行情展望 20250725 摘要 电解铝行业受益于能耗限制，产能受限，海外投产缓慢，使其在过去改 革中保持良好状态，未出现过度竞争或相关政策干预。 历史经验表明，通过政策干预和需求刺激可有效控制供给端并推动行情 持续，如 16-18 年淘汰产能和 21 年中美疫情后经济修复。 行情持续需终端需求刺激，如投资水电站、基建项目等，类似于过去地 产需求放开、汽车购置税优惠等措施。 机构将电解铝视为类红利属性股票，因其供给刚性、分红率上升和高股 息。推荐关注具有稳定分红率和高股息率的上市公司标的。 商品价格上涨主要因需求增加和能耗管控，导致钢、铝、铜等高能耗品 种产量减少，价格上涨，许多品种创下 2007 年以来新高。 铝表现较好因其高电耗导致停产复产成本高，双碳背景下产能受限，且 严格控制超产，弹性较小，有色金属需求端表现出更好的成长性。 未来 3-5 年，铝和铜仍是重点推荐品种，最佳买入时机是在美国降息逐 步放缓阶段。短期内，铝板块具有较强韧性，预计价格中枢将稳步上移。 Q&A 当前房地产行业对电解铝板块的政策或产业端预期变化有哪些？ 从目前来看，电解铝属于过去两轮改革最成功的品种之一。 ...

2025 年 7 月 28 日 星期一 每日大市点评 港股上周跟随全球股市乘势向上，恒生指数终以周线图向上突破重要阻力，恒生指数全周上升 2.3%，收报 25,388 点，创 出三年多以来新高。恒生科指上升 2.5%，收报 5,677 点，也确认摆脱 5 月以来的闷局。大市日均成交金额按周增加 12.6% 至 2,879 亿港元，赚钱效应良好吸引增量资金进场，港股通全周流入 323 亿港元。上周仅电讯行业指数逆市下跌，而综合 企业、材料、能源指数分别上升 8.8%、7.7%及 5.4%。恒生指数技术指标及市宽短期超买，若回调整理会更健康，24,800 点为支持。 港股当前整体升势仍较健康，核心驱动逻辑正从前期避险情绪与仓位回补，逐渐有转向基本面改善与政策预期向好的迹 象：一方面，美国已与日本、印尼、越南等重要贸易伙伴达成贸易协议，与欧盟的谈判也有向好发展苗头，有助于缓和 全球供应链焦虑，更打开了美联储 9 月重启降息的窗口。另一方面，本周中美即将开启第三次贸易会谈之际，其他国家已 经出炉的贸易协议一定程度揭示了当前特朗普贸易政策的"套路"，不确定性有所下降也有助于削弱关税威胁对港股的 外部冲击。在内部因素方面 ...

7月25日，国网塔什库尔干县供电公司组织工作人员前往塔什库尔干乡民宿村景区对民宿和景区供用电 设施进行巡视检查，全力保障景区民宿用电安全与稳定，助力旅游产业蓬勃发展。 在检查过程中，工作人员还进行民宿业主和游客发放安全用电宣传手册，结合实际案例，深入浅出地讲 解安全用电常识，如何正确使用电器设备、如何预防电气火灾、发生触电事故时的应急处理方法等。针 对民宿内空调、电热水器等大功率电器多的特点，工作人员现场传授节电小窍门，引导大家科学用电、 节约用电。"供电公司想得太周到了，不仅帮我们检查用电设施，还教我们安全用电知识，这下我们经 营起来更放心了。"一位民宿业主感激地说。 通过此次活动，塔什库尔干乡民宿村景区的用电安全得到了进一步保障，安全用电理念也更加深入人 心，为景区的旅游旺季增添了一份安心与保障 。 下一步，塔县供电公司将持续关注景区用电需求,常态化开展特色服务，以优质电力和暖心服务，为游 客打造安心、舒心的旅游环境，为地方文旅产业发展注入强劲"电动力" 。（通讯员：那扎尔） 为保障景区电力设备稳定运行,塔县供电公司组织党员服务队人员进行对景区配电室、变压器、高低压 线路等电力设施进行巡检。工作人员利用红 ...

截至7月25日，北交所融资融券余额合计62.07亿元，较前一交易日减少5016.14万元，其中，融资余额 62.06亿元，较前一交易日减少5046.26万元，融券余额为31.06万元，较前一交易日增加30.12万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至7月25日，北交所股票中，融资余额居前的为锦波生物、艾融软件、贝 特瑞，最新融资余额分别为3.68亿元、1.69亿元、1.60亿元，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术 平均值为1.15%，最新融资余额占流通市值比例居前的有胜业电气、万源通、科拜尔等，占比分别为 4.66%、3.34%、3.32%。 | 837592 | 华信永 | -1.12 | 3589.30 | 126.29 | 1.39 | 计算机 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 道 | | | | | | | 920116 | 星图测 控 | 3.26 | 5070.00 | 122.08 | 1.98 | 计算机 | | 873167 | 新赣江 | -1.26 | 1252.94 | 121.85 | 1.20 | 医药生 物 | | ...

Core Insights - The Jiangsu Future Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition showcased 56 projects focusing on key future industries such as brain-computer interfaces, new materials, hydrogen energy, and advanced storage, with 34 projects selected as "gold seeds" for investment [1][2][6] Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition is a significant platform for nurturing future industries in Jiangsu, organized by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and supported by various investment and entrepreneurial associations [2] - The number of projects registered for this year's competition increased by nearly 40% compared to the first edition, indicating growing interest and innovation in the sector [2] - The final round involved rigorous processes including live presentations and real-time scoring, highlighting the high quality of projects that advanced to this stage [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Winning projects will enter the Jiangsu Strategic Emerging Industry Fund's future industry angel fund project reserve, providing them with potential investment opportunities [3][6] - The Jiangsu Strategic Emerging Industry Fund has reached a scale of over 100 billion, establishing a solid foundation for the growth of emerging industries [2][6] - Successful cases from the fund include a 10 million yuan investment in a biotechnology company aimed at accelerating clinical research for cancer treatments [3] Group 3: Ecosystem and Support - The competition is part of a broader strategy to cultivate future industries through collaboration among government, enterprises, research institutions, finance, and society [5][6] - The Jiangsu government is implementing a three-year action plan (2024-2026) to accelerate the development of future industries, with the competition serving as a key initiative [5][6] - The selected projects will receive continuous support and tracking services from the Jiangsu High-tech Investment Group, enhancing their chances of success [6]

长和称，该集团与一个财团之间的独家磋商期已届满。集团仍在与财团成员进行讨论，拟邀请来自中国内地的主要策略投资者加入成为 财团的重要成员。 为使交易能够获得所有相关监管机构和部门的批准，财团的成员以及交易架构将需要进行变更。集团打算预留充分的时间进行相关讨 论，以达成新安排。 长和再次强调，在未获得所有相关监管机构和部门批准前，将不会进行任何交易。 【导读】李嘉诚旗下长和公告港口交易进展，拟邀请来自中国内地主要策略投资者加入，开盘股价直线拉升后跳水 中国基金报记者 晨曦 长和转让旗下港口一事，最新进展来了。 7 月 28 日早间，长江和记实业有限公司（以下简称长和）发布公告透露涉及和记港口交易的最新进展。 长和于 3 月 4 日发布公告称，宣布与贝莱德 -TiL 财团达成原则性协议，拟向该财团出售旗下和记港口集团非中国资产，引起市场高度 关注。 据悉，该次交易将涉及和记港口集团持有的巴拿马港口公司 90% 股权，后者持有和营运巴拿马巴尔博亚和克里斯托瓦尔两个港口。交 易还涉及长江和记在其附属公司与相关公司持有的 80% 有效控制权益，包括位于 23 个国家的 43 个港口拥有、营运、发展的共 199 个泊位，连 ...