生猪日报 | 2025-05-09 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月8日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月矛盾仍在积累盘面震荡调整； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1245手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价13985元/ 吨，最低价13865元/吨，收盘于13910元/吨。 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情 ...

Core Insights - The government of Yulin City has invested a total of 250 million yuan over the past five years to support standardized sheep farming, benefiting over 60,000 sheep farmers [1][2] - In 2024, Yulin's sheep population is projected to reach 9.75 million, with meat production at 68,000 tons and cashmere production at 3,058.84 tons, contributing to a primary industry output value of 6.861 billion yuan [1] - The sheep industry has become a core pillar of rural revitalization in Yulin, with over 122,000 farming households involved, and average disposable income for sheep farmers exceeding 20,000 yuan, accounting for over 70% of household net income [2] Investment and Infrastructure - The investment of 50 million yuan in the previous year covered 12 key towns, over 250 administrative villages, and benefited more than 10,000 sheep farmers [1] - Yulin has established three provincial-level sheep breeding farms and 36 municipal-level breeding farms, capable of providing over 20,000 high-quality breeding sheep annually [1] Environmental and Ecological Impact - The sheep farming initiative has transformed mountain closure and grazing bans into a driving force for industrial upgrading, with sheep population increasing from 4.368 million in 2002 to 9.752 million in 2024 [2] - The comprehensive utilization rate of livestock manure has reached 88.4%, and the facility matching rate for large-scale farms is 98.6%, achieving resource recycling [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]

英国官员：承诺降低或完全放开大量关税。关于牛肉，我们取得了胜利，这是我们首次拥有自己对美国 牛肉进口的配额。 ...

英国政府：我们已经就牛肉市场互惠准入达成一致，英国农民将获得1.3万吨的免关税配额。 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，金新农5月8日晚间公告，公司2025年04月生猪销量10.65万头（其中商品猪6.57万 头、仔猪4.03万头、种猪0.05万头），生猪销售收入13,879.47万元，商品猪销售均价15.05元/公斤。 金新农：4月生猪销售收入1.39亿元 ...

*ST傲农（603363）公告，2025年4月生猪销售量13.28万头，同比减少14.42%，较2025年3月增加 1.02%；生猪存栏53.96万头，同比增加15.06%，较2025年3月末减少0.80%，较2024年12月末增加 5.20%。 ...

【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 ...

"下一步市政协会继续做好强信心、聚民心、暖人心、筑同心工作，结合助企行动，开展委员送法 助企远航系列活动，为巴彦淖尔市优化营商环境，助力企业做大做强贡献政协智慧和力量。"陈改雁介 绍。 这家农牧业专业合作社在成立之初，曾因不熟悉土地承包法规和流转程序，差点耽误春耕。关键时 刻，向市政协社会科学和社会保障界委员工作站求助。 工作站迅速行动，组织政协委员联合农牧、林草等部门召开专题座谈会，就土地流转法律问题和审 批程序提供专业指导，最终帮助合作社顺利完成5000余亩土地流转。 截至目前，巴彦淖尔市政协社会科学和社会保障界委员工作站聚焦土地流转、购销合同纠纷、产权 办理等企业需求，已为15家企业提供土地流转、合同纠纷调解、产权办理等法律服务。同时，将服务中 发现的问题转化为提案和社情民意信息20余件，充分发挥政协智库作用，搭建政企沟通桥梁，暖人心。 近期，巴彦淖尔市政协社会和法制委员会与相关单位共同推出企业法律服务专场直播。直播中，专 业律师围绕合同纠纷、知识产权保护、劳动用工合规等企业关注度较高的法律问题，结合典型案例，深 入浅出地剖析法律要点，为企业提供可操作性强的法律建议。同时，线上解读企业合规经营政策、法规 ...