美国政府近期实施的关税政策引起拉美国家的普遍担忧和强烈反对。一场由巴西农牧业联合会主办的农 业问题研讨会当地时间6日在巴西最大城市圣保罗举行。会议聚焦全球贸易变化下的巴西农业发展机遇 与挑战。与会专家学者们表示，美国前所未有的贸易保护主义行为令人费解，在不确定性增加的情况 下，世界各国之间更应大力加强农产品贸易合作。(央视新闻) ...

【市场动态】 1、5月6日，生猪注册仓单705手； 生猪日报 | 2025-05-07 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏有望增加影响 偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1030手，持仓约7.08万手，最高价13970元/ 吨，最低价13855元/吨，收盘于13960元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、 ...

●65个项目涵盖清洁能源、文化旅游、重大基础设施、特色产业等领域 ●10亿元以上项目达25个，超三分之一 4月30日，国资国企托底性帮扶甘孜州县域项目集中签约活动在甘孜州泸定县举行，40多家国资国 企负责人齐聚会场。签约活动结束，留在甘孜的是65个项目，总金额超1500亿元。 2023年8月起，省委、省政府组织开展39个欠发达县域托底性帮扶工作。省国资委建立健全国 企"1+1帮1"机制，以产业帮扶为主攻方向，组织在川央企和地方国企对39个欠发达县域开展结对帮扶。 39个欠发达县域，有12个在甘孜。在欠发达县域最多的市（州），国资国企负责人齐聚签约，有什 么亮点值得关注？ 亮点一：矩阵式帮扶再出击 4月30日，成都交投航空投资集团有限公司董事长兼总经理吴晓早早来到集中签约现场。让他感到 激动的，是即将"飞"进高原山区的低空经济——成都交投航空投资集团与甘孜州交通和城乡建设投资集 团签订合作协议，共同出资成立甘孜州低空飞行运营服务有限公司，打造全省首个高原低空经济综合服 务平台。 去年5月28日，巴中县域项目集中签约活动举行；5个多月后，阿坝州县域项目集中签约仪式举行。 进入托底性帮扶工作关键之年，首场集中签约活 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that there are mixed trends in the prices of important production materials in the market, with 20 products experiencing price increases, 25 products seeing price decreases, and 5 products remaining stable [1] - Specifically, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) remains stable at 14.9 yuan per kilogram, showing no change compared to the previous period [1] - The price of soybean meal (with crude protein content ≥ 43%) has increased by 10.4%, reaching 3721.4 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing comprehensive strategies for rural revitalization and agricultural development in Shaanxi Province, guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and the directives from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The focus is on ensuring food security, preventing large-scale poverty, and enhancing rural industries, governance, and infrastructure to support the modernization of the region. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Security - The plan aims to enhance the supply capacity of important agricultural products, ensuring stable grain planting areas of over 45.1 million acres and maintaining a total grain output of over 13 million tons [2] - The strategy includes optimizing livestock production, particularly stabilizing the breeding sow population at around 750,000 heads and implementing support policies for the dairy industry [2][3] - There is a strong emphasis on protecting arable land, with a target to ensure the protection of 43.2756 million acres of farmland and to establish a unified management mechanism for farmland [3] Group 2: Technological and Infrastructure Development - The initiative includes strengthening agricultural technology and equipment support, focusing on key agricultural technology breakthroughs and promoting modern agricultural practices [4] - High-standard farmland construction will be prioritized in key grain-producing counties and irrigation areas to enhance agricultural productivity [4] - The plan also emphasizes the need for improved rural infrastructure, including water supply, electricity, and transportation systems to support agricultural activities [13] Group 3: Poverty Alleviation and Rural Employment - The strategy aims to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, establishing a monitoring and support system to prevent the return to poverty [8] - It includes measures to enhance employment opportunities for rural populations, particularly targeting vulnerable groups and promoting labor cooperation [25] - The plan encourages the development of new rural collective economies and supports farmers in expanding production scales and improving income [26][29] Group 4: Rural Governance and Community Development - The article highlights the importance of strengthening grassroots party organizations to lead rural revitalization efforts and improve governance [17] - It promotes the cultivation of a civilized rural culture and the establishment of community norms to enhance social cohesion [18] - The plan also addresses the need for maintaining rural stability and managing social issues effectively [19] Group 5: Financial and Investment Support - The strategy outlines the establishment of a diversified investment mechanism for rural revitalization, including public budget allocations and financial support for agricultural projects [21] - It encourages the development of a rural credit system and the issuance of special financial bonds to support agricultural initiatives [21] - The plan emphasizes the importance of enhancing agricultural insurance systems to protect farmers' incomes and investments [21]

Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to harm key sectors in Thailand, including automotive, food processing, and agriculture, potentially causing losses up to 800 billion THB (approximately 24 billion USD), which is about 4% of Thailand's GDP [1] - Thailand's GDP for 2024 is projected to be around 19.8 trillion THB [1] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest trading partner, with exports reaching 55 billion USD last year [1] Group 2: Affected Industries - The automotive industry, employing around 700,000 people, is anticipated to be severely impacted, with a 25% tariff on Thai automotive and parts exports likely leading to a decline in exports [1] - In the first two months of 2025, total vehicle exports from Thailand were 143,644 units, a decrease of 18.12% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The processed food and seafood sectors previously enjoyed zero tariffs, with the U.S. being a major market for Thai seafood, accounting for over 25% of U.S. tuna imports, valued at 584 million USD [1] Group 3: Tourism and Agriculture - The tourism sector in Thailand is facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, which may increase prices and weaken purchasing power, affecting American tourists' travel plans [2] - In the previous year, Thailand welcomed 1.03 million American tourists, with an average spending of over 70,000 THB per person [2] - Thai pig farmers oppose the government's proposal to import U.S. pork, fearing it will undermine local livestock industries [2] Group 4: Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand has revised its economic growth forecast downward, with exports expected to grow only 2.3% this year, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 4.4% [2]

今年一季度，畜牧行业在多重挑战中展现韧性。 上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司农产品事业部生猪分析师杨志远在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表 示："生猪养殖行业整体仍将保持盈利，但成本差异将加速行业分化，具备成本优势的企业有望温和扩 张，而高成本企业可能被淘汰。" 在此背景下，杨志远建议，相关企业要深化降本增效，强化成本管控，推广智能化技术，加强种猪育种 与疫病防控，降低疾病风险，提高成活率和生产稳定性。 据同花顺数据统计，2025年一季度17家畜牧上市公司（按证监会行业分类）中，有10家净利润为正值， 其中，6家公司同比实现扭亏为盈。17家畜牧上市公司共实现净利润50.8亿元。 2025年第一季度，牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比增长 37.26%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为44.91亿元，同比扭亏为盈；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为 75.06亿元，同比增长48.14%。在生猪养殖业务方面，2025年第一季度，公司销售生猪2265.8万头，其 中商品猪1839.5万头，仔猪414.9万头，种猪11.3万头。 记者查阅畜牧业头部上市公司的公开信息了解到，控制成本是各家关注 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Development in Qujing - Qujing, located in the eastern part of Yunnan, has a strong agricultural output, consistently ranking first in the province with an annual agricultural output value [1] - The Luliang Basin, known as the "granary of eastern Yunnan," is a major agricultural area with over 90,000 acres of vegetable cultivation planned for 2024, producing 2.45 million tons of various vegetables [2] - The unique artichoke, a trending vegetable, is part of Luliang's agricultural exploration, with local prices ranging from 15 to 20 yuan per kilogram, while retail prices in Shanghai can reach 60 yuan per kilogram [2][3] Group 2: Brand Development and High-Value Products - The Xuanwei ham, a premium product from Qujing, has become a billion-dollar industry, with a brand value of 10.284 billion yuan as of 2024 [4][5] - The Xuanwei ham industry has implemented a comprehensive industrial park to enhance production standards and product quality, resulting in over 100 new ham-related products by the end of 2024 [5] - The local government supports partnerships between companies and farmers to share the benefits of the ham industry, with an annual output value exceeding 11 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Digital Transformation and E-commerce - In 2024, rural online retail sales reached 2.65 trillion yuan, with agricultural live-streaming sales exceeding 800 billion yuan, indicating a significant shift towards digital sales channels [6] - Local influencer "Qujing Old Village Chief" has conducted over 100 live-streaming events, promoting more than 300 agricultural products and achieving sales of over 1 billion yuan annually [6][7] - Qujing's integration of traditional markets with live-streaming platforms is part of a broader strategy to enhance agricultural transformation and rural revitalization [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pork market is experiencing intensified supply-demand dynamics, with white pork prices expected to fluctuate slightly upward in May due to a potential tightening of supply and slight improvement in demand [1][2]. - In April, the average price of white pork in northern key markets was 18.94 yuan/kg, a 1.85% increase month-on-month, while in southern key markets, it was 19.61 yuan/kg, a 1.95% decrease month-on-month [1]. - The overall supply in April remained stable, with no significant positive impact on downstream demand, leading to intensified supply-demand competition [1]. Group 2 - In April, the average daily arrival volume in key wholesale markets was 25,300 heads, a 0.40% increase month-on-month [2]. - For May, the supply of suitable weight pigs is expected to increase slightly, but market participants have a bullish outlook, leading to increased secondary fattening, making it difficult for slaughter enterprises to procure pigs [2]. - The overall expectation for May is that white pork prices may experience slight fluctuations upward, despite low consumer demand and competitive pricing from substitutes [2].

2025 年 5 月 6 日 生猪：假期缩量，关注节后出栏节奏 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao023978@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 14850 | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 14450 | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 15590 | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | | 13445 | -5 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | | 13910 | -20 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13530 | -80 | | | | | 单 位 | ...