且从产能角度看，目前煤炭、钢铁等传统周期性行业的"落后产能"已基本出清完毕，加之上市公司并购重组/央国企整合也基本完 毕，行业集中度显著提升。在此背景下，通过行政手段进一步出清产能的空间已极为有限。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 短期来看,全球市场定价核心在于7月9日美 国与各国贸易协定进展,此前美国总统特朗 普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限,但此 | | | | | 种表态也可能是一种谈判策略,美国对部分 | | | | | 国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增 | 关注两条主线:1)中报业绩预期有望 | | 华西策略 | 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间,A | 长动能强劲,全年经济增速目标达成的压力 | 向好方向,如:风电、火电、机器人 | | | | | 等:2) 前期海外英伟达产业链突破新 | | 李立峰 | 股稳中向上趋势不变。 | 减轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终 | | | | | 结果如何,出口对增长的拉动力都会比上半 | 高,可期待国产链补涨行情。 | | | | ...

非必需品支出急剧下降，成为经济健康状况恶化的"矿井中的金丝雀"，预示着危机即将到来。 美国一季度经济数据显示，国内生产总值（GDP）出现负增长，最终修订数据为-0.5%，这一数据低于 最初估计的-0.3%和随后调整的-0.2%，揭示美国经济疲软程度远超预期。 尽管最初的分析将经济收缩归因于特朗普政府关税政策导致的进口和贸易扭曲，但最新数据揭示了一个 更深层次的问题：消费者支出的显著放缓才是核心问题。消费疲软不仅仅是短期现象，而是反映了美国 经济中更广泛的结构性问题。其中，非必需品支出急剧下降，成为经济健康状况恶化的"矿井中的金丝 雀"，预示着危机即将到来。 美国经济出现消费疲软 贝弗里奇曲线是分析劳动力市场动态的重要工具，显示失业率与职位空缺率之间的关系。2025年第一季 度，职位空缺率从2024年的6.5%下降至5.8%，而失业率略升至4.1%。这表明劳动力市场正在向贝弗里 奇曲线的"平坦部分"移动，即职位空缺减少而失业率上升的阶段。这种趋势反映了劳动力市场供需的恶 化，消费者对未来收入的不确定性增加，从而减少非必需品支出。消费者减少支出导致企业收入下降， 进而削减招聘和投资。消费疲软与劳动力市场形成恶性循 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - Ziyan Food (603057) has experienced a decline in stock price, closing at 21.06 yuan, down 6.28% from the previous week, with a current market capitalization of 8.709 billion yuan [1] Company Announcements - The company has recovered 57 million yuan of principal from cash management products and continues to invest 35 million yuan in bank wealth management products [1] - The investment in bank wealth management products is managed by Bank of Communications, with a term of 29 days [1] - The board of directors approved the use of idle raised funds for cash management to enhance fund utilization efficiency and provide better returns for the company and its shareholders [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the company's monetary funds amounted to 449.1525 million yuan, with the cash management amount of 35 million yuan accounting for 7.79% of the total monetary funds [1]

e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时 上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者 需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 来源：e公司 本周（6月30日—7月4日）A股资金情绪持续回暖，上证指数全周上涨1.40%，收于3472.32点；深 证成指全周涨1.25%，创业板指涨1.50%。 板块表现方面，本周各行各业吹起"反内卷"号角，钢铁、光伏等板块掀起涨停潮。从主题题材来看，光伏 玻璃周内涨超10%，CRO（合同研究组织）、创新药、维生素等主题表现活跃。伴随着中央财经委员会 第六次会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调"推动落后产能有序退出"，新一轮的行业"反内卷"、去产能行 动大幕开启，光伏、钢铁、水泥行业已迅速开展减产工作。 以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 聂英好 本周另一家接待百家以上机构调研的公司是顺网科技，该公司是电竞服务领域核心供应商，机构针对整体 经营情况与顺网科技进行交流。顺网科技指出，在算力业务方面，顺网算力业务有效整合多元异构算力资 源池，构建包括专业级计算算力与渲染算 ...

会议强调，要"用好政策空间、找准发力方向，扎实推动经济高质量发展""大力推动现代化产业体系建设""通过增 加居民收入扩大消费""切实优化民营企业发展环境""加大民生保障力度"等。其中，消费、住房、就业等工作部署 事关你我，一起来了解。 7月24日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。习近平总书记主持会议。 消费是畅通国内大循环的关键环节和重要引擎，也是人民群众对美好生活的直观需求。本次会议强调，"要积极扩 大国内需求，发挥消费拉动经济增长的基础性作用"，再一次把扩大消费摆在了重要位置。同时，会议紧扣消费升 级的趋势和方向，强调要提振汽车、电子产品、家居等大宗消费，推动体育休闲、文化旅游等服务消费。 今年以来，随着扩大内需各项政策措施落地生效，内需潜力持续释放，中国经济增长由去年的以投资和出口拉动 为主转为今年的以消费和投资拉动为主，其中消费对经济增长贡献明显提升。从全年来看，随着消费环境继续改 善、支撑消费增长的有利条件越来越多，消费有望继续扩大。 会议强调: 要切实防范化解重点领域风险，适应我国 房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形 势,适时调整优化房地产政策,因城施策 用好政 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】6 月美国非农数据点评 就业状况指数指向"half full"还是"half empty"？ 主要观点 ❖ 6 月非农数据简述：新增非农就业再超预期 1、新增非农就业超预期，录得 14.7 万，预期 10.6 万。就业增长集中在 4 个行 业，政府部门（+7.3 万，前值+0.7 万）、教育保健服务（+5.1 万，前值+8.3 万）、 休闲酒店业（+2 万，前值+2.9 万）、建筑业（+1.5 万，前值+0.6 万）。罢工结 束贡献约 0.56 万的新增就业。 2、失业率从 4.2%下行至 4.1%，预期 4.3%。劳动参与率从 62.4%降至 62.3%。 3、时薪增速低于预期，环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。周工时从 34.3 小 时降至 34.2 小时，处于 2015 年以来的绝对低位水平。周薪环比下降 0.1%，今 年以来首次录得负值。 4、市场降息预期明显降温，美股和美元指数上涨，长端美债利率上行。期货 市场定价的7月降息概率从25.3%降至4.7%，9月降息概率从91%降至70.7%， 全年降息次数从 2.6 次降至 2.1 次。 ❖ 6 月非农 ...

六月份的月度新增工作岗位数据，大大超过了预期的11.75万个净就业岗位的增长。地方州政府、教育、休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等传统稳定的行业出现了 健康增长。 上个月的增长工作岗位，比五月份的总数略有增加。经过修正后，五月份的新增工作岗位略微上调至14.4万个；四月份的就业增长上调至15.8万个。周四的 数据使三个月的平均就业增长达到15万人。 美国六月份新增工作岗位分项明细 从表面上看，六月份的就业报告展示了美国经济强劲增长的图景：失业率处于历史低位，增加的就业岗位数量健康，工资增长超过通货膨胀。但仔细研究数 据会发现，一些瑕疵可能会破坏这种美好的前景——唐纳德·特朗普总统的经济政策是最重要的共同点。 本月增长的工作岗位绝大部分来自医疗保健（+58,600个工作岗位）、休闲和酒店（+20,000个工作岗位）以及州和地方政府（+80,000个工作岗位）。 如果剔除公共部门的增加岗位（+80,000个工作岗位被联邦政府减少的7,000个工作岗位略微抵消），美国私营部门企业在六月份仅增加了7.4万个工作岗位， 这是自2024年10月以来的最小月度增幅。 在唐纳德·特朗普总统提出大规模且不断变化的关税政策之后，美国一些企 ...

Group 1: Jiangsu Manufacturing and Export Growth - Jiangsu Tengpo Leisure Products Co., Ltd. exports various garden umbrellas to over 50 countries, with an export value of nearly 800 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [1] - The company integrates smart technology into traditional production processes, developing high-end products with adjustable angles and lighting functions, which are popular in overseas markets [1] - Kunshan Sanli Optical Co., Ltd. reported an export value of 30 million yuan for sunglasses and metal frames, with sales growing at a rate of approximately 12% this year [1] Group 2: Air Conditioning and Cooling Appliances Demand - Nantong Installation Group Co., Ltd. has exported home appliances, including air conditioners and accessories, worth 47.47 million yuan in the first quarter [2] - Suzhou Guangxian Electronics Co., Ltd. anticipates exporting 12,000 electric fans this summer, indicating strong demand for smaller cooling appliances [2] - The integration of Suzhou's China-Europe Railway Express with local manufacturing has facilitated the rapid delivery of high-value cooling products to global markets [2] Group 3: Ice Cream Export Surge - The Yangzhou region exported ice cream and frozen desserts worth 28 million yuan from January to May, a 192% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area certificate allows products exported to Thailand to enjoy a 30% tariff reduction, resulting in a total tariff benefit of 6.7 million yuan this year [3] - Yangzhou Customs has established a "green channel" for inspections and customs clearance to minimize operational time and reduce the risk of product damage during export [3]

Market Overview - A-shares showed a recovery in capital sentiment during the week of June 30 to July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% to close at 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.50% [1] Sector Performance - Various sectors experienced a surge, particularly steel and photovoltaic industries, which saw a wave of limit-up trading. The photovoltaic glass sector rose over 10% during the week, while themes such as CRO (Contract Research Organizations), innovative drugs, and vitamins also performed actively [1] - The central financial committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, initiating a new round of "anti-involution" and capacity reduction actions, particularly in the photovoltaic, steel, and cement industries [1] Institutional Research - A total of 158 listed companies disclosed institutional research minutes during the week, with over 70% of the researched stocks achieving positive returns. Taotao Vehicle emerged as the most favored stock by institutions, achieving a remarkable gain of 29.82% [1] - Taotao Vehicle, which has seen its stock price double since early June, received attention from 137 institutions, including Bosera Fund and China Universal Asset Management. The company anticipates a net profit of 310 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.34% to 97.81% [2] - Another company, Shunwang Technology, also attracted over a hundred institutional researchers, focusing on its core services in the esports sector and its advancements in computing power and AI capabilities [2] Company Developments - Xinjie Electric, specializing in industrial automation, was researched by 92 institutions, with a focus on its developments in core components for humanoid robots, including hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors [3] - Jingbeifang, which had previously engaged with multiple institutions, highlighted the advantages of stablecoins over traditional cross-border payment methods and its focus on the development of RWA (Real World Assets) [3] - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, which received attention from 76 institutions, is developing new profit growth points, including high-stability lithium supplement materials and a new structure cathode material that offers significant improvements in energy density and performance [4]