一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 08 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 生猪行情： 期货方面，7 日生猪主力 2509 合约低开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最 高 14310 元/吨，最低 14 ...

Sales Performance Summary - In June 2025, the company sold a total of 2.194 million heads of commodity pigs, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.65% in sales revenue [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 14.08 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 20.59% [1] - The increase in sales volume is attributed to the company's production planning and improved operational efficiency [1] Sales Data Breakdown - The sales data for June includes 112,000 breeding pigs and 225,000 commodity pigs sold [2] - The reported sales figures are preliminary and may differ from those in periodic reports due to rounding [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company disclosed its main operational data for the pig farming business as of June 2025, highlighting sales figures and revenue trends in the context of its overall operations [1]. Group 1: Sales Data - In June 2025, the company sold 21.90 million live pigs, totaling 153.95 million for the year, reflecting a decrease of 7.52% compared to the previous month [2]. - The sales revenue from live pig sales in June was 3.85 billion yuan, with a total of 40.93 billion yuan for the year [2]. - The company sold 0.59 million piglets in June, generating a revenue of 25.04 billion yuan, with 20.22 million pigs sold to internal slaughtering enterprises [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of live pigs in June was not explicitly stated, but the sales data indicates a slight decline of 0.55% in sales to internal slaughtering enterprises compared to May 2025 [2]. - The cumulative sales revenue and volume suggest a need for monitoring market price fluctuations, which can significantly impact the company's performance [3]. Group 3: Operational Context - The disclosed sales data is part of the company's broader operations, which include feed processing, pig farming, slaughtering, and meat processing, although the current figures focus solely on live pig sales [3]. - The company emphasizes that the data is unaudited and may differ from periodic reports, serving as a reference for investors [2].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点行业或 包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期 其基本面均面临一定压力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水泥价 格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照 约束力排序，或是钢铁 > 生猪 > 汽车 > 水泥 > 光伏，关注后续落地进展。 报告摘要 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？ 参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也 包括政府端的"制造 … 不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、"不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产 业、重点产业"、"保护本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？ 综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括 ...

Core Insights - Multiple listed pig companies released their sales reports for June, indicating a general decline in sales prices and varying performance in sales volume and revenue among different companies [1][3][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 7.019 million pigs in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.35%, with a sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, up 27.65% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.0073 million pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a decline in sales volume and average price compared to May [3][4] - Shennong Group's sales volume decreased to 219,000 pigs in June 2025, with a revenue of 385 million yuan, reflecting a drop in both sales volume and price [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling price of Muyuan Foods' pigs was 14.08 yuan/kg in June 2025, down 20.59% year-on-year [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group's average price for pigs was 14.39 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.40% [3] - Shennong Group's average price for pigs was 14.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.55% from May [4] Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - Many pig companies have managed to control breeding costs effectively, enhancing operational efficiency despite the overall low price trend [5][6][7] - New Hope reported a recent cost of 13 yuan/kg for fattened pigs, while Tianbang Bio aims to reduce costs to below 12.8 yuan/kg by the end of 2025 [7][8] - Muyuan Foods highlighted its cost advantage in piglet sales, contributing positively to its profitability [8]

上市猪企6月销售简报集中出炉 7月7日晚间，龙头上市猪企牧原股份披露的2025年6月份销售简报显示，2025年6月份，公司销售商品猪701.9万头，同比变动58.35%（其中向全资子公司 牧原肉食品有限公司及其子公司合计销售商品猪219.4万头），较2025年5月份的640.6万头有所增长；商品猪销售均价14.08元/公斤，同比变动-20.59%，较 2025年5月份的14.52元/公斤有所下降；商品猪销售收入127.99亿元，同比变动27.65%，较2025年5月份的122.58亿元有所增长。 另一家龙头上市猪企温氏股份当晚披露的2025年6月主产品销售情况简报则显示，公司2025年6月销售生猪300.73万头（其中毛猪和鲜品270.39万头，仔猪 30.34万头），收入49.20亿元，毛猪销售均价14.39元/公斤，环比变动分别为-4.69%、-7.57%、-1.98%，同比变动分别为28.93%、-5.40%、-20.50%。 多家上市猪企6月销售简报集中出炉。 7月7日晚间，包括牧原股份、温氏股份等龙头在内的多家上市猪企发布6月销售简报。 相关数据显示，6月上市猪企生猪销售均价同比和环比普遍下滑，不同 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 猪价高位回落，推荐"平台+生态" 模式代表德康农牧 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250630-20250704） 饲料：重点推荐海大集团，现金流拐点+海外高增长。 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价高位回落，行业产能调控政策持续。 猪价高位回落，涌益数据最新猪价为 14.94 元/kg，出栏均重略升至 128.64kg，15Kg 仔猪报价稳定在 530 元/头左右，前期降重压力缓解，标肥价差拉大后养殖群体惜售 情绪增加，猪价短期反弹冲高后略有回落。伴随今年生猪企业持续降本增效，成本 优势企业最新完全成本已降至 12 元/kg 左右，企业盈利或维持较好水平， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20%, making it one of the best performers globally [1] - The "Hong Kong Three Sisters"—Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group—have gained significant attention, with Lao Pu Gold surging by 330%, Pop Mart by 200%, and Mixue Group by 96% [2][4] - A lesser-known player, Dekang Agriculture (02419), has also performed well, with its stock price increasing by 192% this year, peaking at a 247% rise [3] Group 2 - Dekang Agriculture's growth is driven by its low valuation and strong growth potential, primarily in pig farming, which constitutes about 80% of its business [5] - The company is projected to have a stable growth rate, with a 24% year-on-year increase in pig output expected in 2024, and ambitious targets of 31% and 30% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - In comparison, major competitors like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are expected to have lower growth rates of 26% and 13%, respectively [6] Group 3 - Dekang Agriculture's cost structure is competitive, with a complete breeding cost of approximately 12.4 yuan/kg, placing it among the industry's top tier [8] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be around 62.76% by the end of 2024, which is in line with the industry average, indicating manageable financial pressure [10] - The valuation method for pig farming companies is based on head average market value during the bottom of the pig cycle, with Dekang's head average market value at 2560 yuan, which is relatively low compared to peers [12] Group 4 - The current pig cycle is characterized by overproduction, with the national breeding sow inventory exceeding the target, leading to a downward pressure on pig prices [13] - The industry has seen improvements in breeding efficiency, with the average number of piglets weaned per sow increasing significantly, contributing to higher supply levels [13][14] - Despite the challenges, there is potential for policy interventions to stabilize the market, which could lead to temporary boosts in stock performance for companies like Dekang Agriculture [15]

行业主要上市公司：牧原股份(002714.SZ)、正邦科技(002157.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、新希望 (000876.SZ)等 主要国家猪肉生产情况 根据美国农业部公布的数据显示，2024年，年末全球生猪存栏量约为7.59亿头，同比下降约2.42%。其 中，中国、欧盟(27国)和美国分别占全球总存栏量的57.19%、17.50%和9.94%。 2024年中国生猪存栏量约42743万头 生猪养殖是我国的传统行业，自改革开放以来，我国生猪养殖行业一方面受经济持续高速增长、城乡居 民收入水平不断提高和食物消费结构不断升级等因素的需求强力拉动。国家统计局数据显示，2013- 2024年，我国生猪存栏量呈上下波动的态势，2024年末生猪存栏42743万头，同比下降1.6%。 根据美国农业部的数据，2020-2025年，全球猪肉产量呈现波动趋势。2024年中国猪肉产量为5675万t， 预计2025年将略有下降至5550万t，主要原因是调控过剩的生猪产能。欧盟猪肉产量在2024年为2125万 t，预计2025年将下降至2090万t，主要由于猪肉出口需求减少。美国和巴西的猪肉产量预计在2025年将 分别增 ...