6月16日，国家统计局发布5月国民经济运行数据。供给端，5月全国规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%（预期 5.6%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长6.2%。需求端，5月固定资产投资累计增长3.7%（预期4.1%），其中， 基建和制造业累计增速分别为10.4%（预期9.7%）和8.5%（预期8.5%），房地产投资累计同比-10.7%（预期增 速-10.5%）。社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%（预期4.8%）。 图1：消费提振，投资放缓 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 5月关税冲击显现，我国经济顶住压力，多数指标实现超预期增长，呈现三个特征。一是外需放缓节奏开始， 内外需增速差收敛。 5月人民币计价出口金额同比增长6.3%，较5月显著下行3pct，出口增速放缓，源自中美 双边贸易额大幅收缩三成，转口贸易和非美贸易伙伴需求边际回落。 二是消费提速支撑，增速同时高于市场 预期、投资和生产。 5月社零增速上行1.3pct至6.4%，以旧换新政策扩围显效、购物节前置、假日消费热度高 企，合力推高单月增速升至2020年以来次高位【注释1】。 三是房地产市场以价换量趋向价跌量缓。 70大中 ...

宏观月报 / 2025.06.16 消费回升能持续吗?_ ■ 证券研究报告 陈兴 分析师 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号:S0160523080004 majun(a)ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《产能利用率稳步回复 -- 2023年 12月经济数据解读》 2024-01-17 2. 《谁在带动工业生产回升 ? -- 2024 年 1-2 月经济数据解读》 2024-03-18 3.《5.3%的增速由谁拉动? -- 一季度 经济数据解读》 2024-04-16 核心观点 4. 《地产新政,影响多大? -- 地产政 策及4月经济数据解读》 2024-05-17 5. 《施工为何显著回落 ? -- 5月经济 数据解读》 2024-06-17 6.《放缓的症结何在? -- 二季度经济 数据解读》 2024-07-15 点。不过以旧换新补贴资金余额或已不足,后续需观察相应政策续作时点和力 度等。二是外需面临走弱。此前受益于抢出口和抢转口的助力,出口保持在中 高增速区间,但考虑到对等关税豁免将到期,抢出口力度或超弱,需关注出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a slight decline in industrial production, a rebound in consumption, and a comprehensive drop in investment, with real estate continuing to decline [1][15]. Demand Side Analysis - External demand is significantly impacted by tariff fluctuations, leading to a continued decline in exports to the U.S., while transshipment trade and European recovery support exports in a mid-high range [1][2]. - Domestic investment is broadly declining, influenced by weak real estate and infrastructure investments, while consumption is showing signs of recovery due to trade-in programs and consumption festivals [1][2]. Production Side Analysis - Industrial production growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, primarily due to tariff disruptions affecting export strength [3]. - The service production index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in consumption [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [5][14]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing substantial year-on-year growth [9]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rose to 6.4% in May, indicating enhanced consumption momentum, with significant contributions from home appliance and communication sectors benefiting from trade-in programs [10]. - Service consumption also showed recovery, with tourism-related growth accelerating and restaurant income increasing [10]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate fell to -3.3% year-on-year, with new housing sales declining while prices continue to rise [14]. - The construction area growth rate rebounded significantly, although new construction area growth remains negative [14]. Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a stable employment situation despite external disruptions [15]. - There is cautious optimism regarding external demand, with potential benefits from future tariff negotiations and European recovery efforts [15].

2025.06. 16 公告信息显示，在甘肃矿区人民法院正在审理的一起贷款担保纠纷中，贵州长征作为担保人，为一笔 本息合计超过2.7亿元的贷款提供了担保，从而被债权人起诉，要求承担连带责任。 从这笔看似平常的上市公司转让下属公司股权的交易切入，第一财经记者调查发现了一些不寻常的隐 秘事项：2018年，上市公司华明装备以近4亿元的代价从曾经在A股市场翻云覆雨的银河系潘琦手中 收购贵州长征，却在六年后不得不以100万元剥离。高买低卖的交易背后，意外牵出了兰州银行 作者 | 第一财 经 张丽华、魏中原 然而，兰州银行向关联公司兰州三维汇成置业有限公司（下称："三维汇成"）转让上述贷款对应的 债权，之后发生的偿债官司在诉讼调查中暴露的关联交易疑点，将金融机构放贷合规性与资本系族利 益勾连的监管灰色地带推向聚光灯下。 2025年4月16日，华明装备（002270.SZ）披露，计划以100万元的价格，转让全资孙公司贵州长 征电气有限公司（下称："贵州长征"）100% 的股权。而就在六年前，该公司收购贵州长征的价 格，高达3.98亿元。 100 万股权转让牵出巨额担保案 贵州长征突然被债权人起诉追偿债务，是华明装备转让股权 ...

日前，多条关于广东省江门市蓬江区荷塘镇广东晟亮灯具有限公司老板遭供应商围堵的视频在网络引发广泛关注，甚至有网友发视频称该公司欠债高达 6000多万。 为了解事件详情，南都记者实地走访涉事工厂，并采访荷塘镇政府。 从大门上面粘贴的宣传广告可以看到，该工厂生产轨道灯、办公灯和平板灯等多种产品。透过窗户可见其二车间里面已经空荡荡，没有生产机器，没有原 料，也没有产品。 工厂外面墙上新贴着厂房直租之类的广告，南都记者拨打电话后得知这些出租广告均由房产中介粘贴。 附近工厂的一位工人向南都记者透露，最早是5月7日晚上，突然有很多人到该工厂围堵说是要货款，然后工厂就停工了，纷争持续至5月底，工厂内的机 器设备等被搬空后才恢复平静。"晟亮灯具之前有一百多人，在荷塘应该有四五年了，没想到会突然倒闭。"该工人还提到，听说去年承包该公司食堂的人 还有8万元没有拿到。 该公司在某视频平台的账号一直非常活跃，发布的视频作品数量达490条，该公司在视频账号介绍中写道"晟亮照明深耕LED商业照明13年""拥有200余名 员工，年产值近2亿元"。其发布的视频显示，今年3月召开了全国招商大会和纳斯达克上市计划启动分享会，4月发布招聘业务精英以 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 5 月"消费强投资弱"，经济运行保持较强韧性 ——2025 年 5 月宏观数据点评 5 月规上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，增速较上月回落 0.3 个百分点。从三大门类看，5 月采矿业增加 值同比增速与上月持平，电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业增加值同比增速小幅加快，但在工业中占比最 高的制造业增加值增速较上月下滑 0.4 个百分点至 6.2%，拖累当月工业生产增速整体放缓。主要原因是 外部经贸环境急剧变化继续影响企业出口贸易，5 月工业企业出口交货值同比增速从上月的 0.9%进一步 回落至 0.6%。 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件：据国家统计局 2025 年 6 月 16 日公布的数据，5 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%， 前值为 6.1%，1-5 月累计同比为 6.3%，2024 年全年累计同比为 5.8%；5 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，前值为 5.1%，1-5 月累计同比为 5.0%，2024 年全年累计同比为 3.5%；1-5 月全国固定资产投资累 计同比增长 3.7%，前值为 4.0%，2024 年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点 ...

宏观点评 20250616 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 经济叙事的三重分化——5 月经济数据点评 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ◼ 具体来看，5 月经济各领域表现如下： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《工业生产淡季不弱，"抢出口"有所 放缓》 2025-06-15 《"抢进口"与服务部门衰退冲击令美 国 5 月 CPI 环比不及预期》 2025-06-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 5 月经济仍然具有韧性。供给端，5 月工业增加值同比+5.8%，服务业生 产指数同比+6.2%，分别比上月下降 0.3 个点、提高 0.2 个点，供给侧工 业小幅走弱、服务业小幅走强，整体大致跟上月持平。需求端，社零同 比+6.4%，比上月提高 1.3 个点；固定资产投资累计同比 3.7%，比上月 下降 0.3 个点（推算当月同比从 3.6%降至 2.9%）； ...

Core Viewpoint - Huaming Equipment plans to divest its wholly-owned subsidiary Guizhou Changzheng Electric Co., Ltd. for 1 million yuan, a significant drop from the 398 million yuan paid six years ago, due to a lawsuit from creditors seeking debt recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions and Financial Implications - The divestment is a response to Guizhou Changzheng being sued by creditors for over 270 million yuan in loans for which it acted as a guarantor [2][4]. - Huaming Equipment stated that the guarantee obligations were not disclosed by the previous owners, leading to potential financial risks and uncertainties [4][5]. - The company aims to optimize its asset structure and mitigate legal risks by transferring the subsidiary [4][5]. Group 2: Debt and Guarantee Issues - The loans in question were issued by Lanzhou Bank, with Guizhou Changzheng providing guarantees for multiple loans totaling 11 billion yuan to three trade companies with minimal capital [2][6][14]. - The loans were linked to a broader scheme involving multiple companies and individuals, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the transactions and the financial health of the guarantors [8][19]. - The three borrowing companies had a combined registered capital of less than 60 million yuan, yet secured substantial loans, indicating potential irregularities in the lending process [14][23]. Group 3: Connections and Regulatory Concerns - The investigation revealed connections between the borrowing companies and the controlling entities of the guarantors, suggesting a network of interests that may have influenced the loan approvals [8][21]. - The guarantors included companies and individuals with a history of financial difficulties and regulatory issues, raising questions about the due diligence performed by Lanzhou Bank [23][28]. - The lack of transparency and compliance with regulatory requirements in the guarantee agreements has been highlighted, with significant implications for corporate governance and accountability [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that under the global energy transition, China's green energy technology is rapidly expanding internationally, with Shanghai Electric leading the way in high-end manufacturing and establishing a global green energy footprint [1][2]. Group 1: Wind Energy Expansion - Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group has achieved over 1 GW in overseas project bids, showcasing its capabilities in various international activities such as equipment sales and lifecycle maintenance [3]. - The company has been a leader in China's offshore wind power sector for ten consecutive years and has secured significant orders in regions like Eurasia and Southeast Asia, contributing to global green energy development [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Shanghai Electric has a long history of exporting advanced equipment, with significant milestones in high-end CNC machine exports, marking a key achievement in its internationalization efforts [5]. - The company aims to continue breakthroughs in high-end machine design and manufacturing, focusing on collaboration across the supply chain and fostering talent in advanced manufacturing [6]. Group 3: Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Projects - The company is involved in the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park project, which includes 700 MW of solar thermal and 250 MW of photovoltaic capacity, expected to generate 5.7 billion kWh by May 2025 [7]. - This project is a significant collaboration between China and the UAE, aiming to reduce CO2 emissions by over 1.6 million tons annually [7][8]. Group 4: Global Project Execution - Shanghai Electric has executed over 200 projects in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, with a total installed capacity of 125 GW and nearly 200 billion yuan in executable orders [9]. - The company plans to expand its overseas business, focusing on clean and renewable energy projects, thereby promoting Chinese manufacturing on a global scale [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Jinpan Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. has transformed from a traditional power equipment company into an innovative, technology-driven, and digital enterprise, focusing on the development of transformers and related products while expanding into intelligent manufacturing and AI integration [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 1997, Jinpan Technology has developed a global production base, with operations in countries such as Mexico, Poland, and Malaysia, and its products are distributed in over 80 countries and regions [1]. - The company has received various international certifications for its main products, including UL and KEMA [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first quarter of this year, Jinpan Technology reported steady revenue growth, particularly in data centers and wind energy sectors [2]. - As of March 31, the order amount for the company's complete series products in the data center sector increased by 43.25% compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Research and Development - Jinpan Technology invested 356 million yuan in R&D in 2024, resulting in 284 effective patents, 73 software copyrights, and 37 trademarks [2]. - The company has successfully completed projects such as the 20.6MVA dry-type transformer for floating wind turbine units, recognized as an advanced equipment manufacturing project in Hainan Province [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - In 2024, Jinpan Technology aims to integrate AI technology with its digital manufacturing platform to enhance production efficiency and product quality across the entire business chain [3]. - The company is focusing on the intelligent industrial robot sector, particularly in smart welding, handling, and collaborative robots, to drive its smart manufacturing transformation [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Jinpan Technology plans to increase R&D investment in 2025, continuing to drive technological innovation and expand its product matrix with digital, low-carbon, and intelligent products [3]. - The company aims to establish a three-dimensional driving model focusing on global market layout, high-value products, and efficient production operations, leveraging technology innovation as a key engine for growth [4].