2025.05. 22 【今日推荐】 多家股份行下调存款利率 在招商银行、光大银行于5月20日率先下调存款挂牌利率后，又有中信银行、广发银行等多家股份行 集体宣布5月21日下调存款挂牌利率。总体来看，已经下调的股份行，整存整取挂牌利率最高降幅为 25个基点。从定存产品利率来看，有银行个别期限降幅达到40BP。 巴基斯坦与印度互相驱逐对方一名外交官 以总理称将全面控制加沙 对伊朗保留单方面行动权利 当地时间21日晚，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行自2024年12月以来的首次新闻发布会。内塔尼亚胡表 示，以色列已为实现短暂停火做好准备，但重申停火必须是"临时性"的。在未来的加沙安排上，以色 列将继续全面控制整个加沙地带。内塔尼亚胡还强调，以色列正在与美国保持全面协调，密切关注伊 朗核活动的走向。如果外交努力能够阻止伊朗的核计划，以色列将对此表示欢迎；但同时也将保留单 方面采取防卫行动的权利。 【观国内】 外交部：中国完全有能力、有条件、有底气应对各种风险挑战 5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。毛宁表示，国务院新闻办公室19日举行了新闻发布 会，介绍了4月份国民经济运行的情况。我注意到国际媒体纷纷用"超预期"" ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）， 1 年期 LPR、5 年期以上 LPR 均下调 10 个基点，分别由 3.10%、3.60% 调整为 3.00%、3.50%。这是继 5 月 7 日央行宣布降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，以及 5 月 8 日降低个人住房公积金 贷款利率 0.25 个百分点后的又一重磅举措，标志着年内货币政策宽松周期全面开启。 政策组合拳：降息降准的多维逻辑 此次降息并非孤立事件，而是一揽子政策的延续。5 月 7 日央行行长潘功胜宣布的 "降准 + 降息 + 调降 公积金利率" 组合拳，旨在通过释放长期流动性、降低融资成本、刺激住房消费三重路径稳定经济。从 背景看，尽管中美 "对等关税" 阶段性缓和，但外部不稳定因素依然较多，4 月制造业 PMI 重回收缩区 间至 49%，居民贷款减少 5216 亿元，显示内需不足压力仍存。在此背景下，央行通过政策利率引导 LPR 下行，直接降低企业和居民的实际融资成本，成为扩投资、促消费的关键发力点。 叠加 5 月 8 日公积金贷款利率下调 0.25 个百分点（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms, which will lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, particularly for first-time homebuyers, marking a significant shift in the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The 1-year LPR has been adjusted from 3.10% to 3.00%, and the 5-year LPR from 3.60% to 3.50%, resulting in a 10 basis point reduction for both [1]. - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers is expected to drop to approximately 2.95%, with some cities potentially seeing rates as low as 2.90% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in mortgage rates is anticipated to lower housing costs, thereby stimulating demand for home purchases [3]. - The average weighted mortgage rate for new commercial personal housing loans in Q1 2025 was reported at 3.11%, with first-time homebuyer rates around 3.06% [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The recent interest rate cuts are part of a broader strategy to support the economy, particularly in light of weak external conditions and a challenging employment landscape [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current monetary policy will continue to trend towards greater easing, indicating a sustained period of lower interest rates [8]. - There is an expectation for additional supportive policies for the real estate market, including financial measures linked to housing sales and urban renewal initiatives [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, adjusting them to 3.00% and 3.50% respectively [1][3] - The recent easing of monetary policy, including the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, is expected to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and support the real estate market [1][2][3] - The reduction in housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points is anticipated to further lower mortgage costs for homebuyers, potentially leading to a decrease in commercial loan rates [3][9] Group 2 - The cancellation of the lower limit for first and second home loan rates at the national level has allowed some cities to reduce their mortgage rates to around 3.0%, the lowest historical level [7] - In Beijing, the expected adjustments to mortgage rates following the LPR reduction could bring first and second home loan rates down to 3.05% and 3.25% respectively, marking a historical low [7] - The LPR reduction is also expected to lower existing mortgage rates, alleviating the repayment pressure on homeowners [9]

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/5/19 4月经济数据点评—— 经济保持韧性 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、内外因素对冲，工业生产未见显著放缓 2、社零增速回落，促消费政策仍有支撑 3、制造业及广义基建投资韧性较强 4、失业率保持季节性回落 ➢中国4月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，预期5.2%，前值7.7%。 ➢中国4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，预期5.5%，前值5.9%。 ➢中国1-4月固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长4.0%，预期增4.3%，前值4.2%。 ➢中国4月全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，前值5.2%。 图表1：经济数据主要分项 | 单位： | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024/6 | 2024/5 | 2024/4 | % | 规模以上工业增加值 | | | ...

【导读】穆迪下调评级，美国股债双杀 中国基金报记者泰勒 大家好，一起看看今天市场发生了什么。 美国股债双杀 5月19日，美国遭遇股债双杀，美股三大股指期货集体下跌，道指期货跌近400点，纳指期货跌1.4%。 美国国债收益率曲线变陡，美国10年期国债收益率上升至4.526%。30年期国债收益率上升，触及具有心理意义的5%关口。 由于市场对美国经济前景和财政赤字的担忧加剧，避险情绪升温，推动黄金上涨。 新加坡华侨银行投资策略董事总经理表示："这次评级下调将加剧市场对美国'例外主义'优势逐渐丧失的担忧，也会让非美资产对全球股市投 资者更具吸引力，尤其是那些已经将资金从美股转向欧洲等市场的投资者。" 穆迪表示，尽管其认可美国在经济和金融方面具有显著实力，但这些优势已无法完全抵消财政指标恶化所带来的影响。美国财政部长斯科特 ·贝森特则淡化了对美国债务和关税通胀效应的担忧，称特朗普政府决心削减联邦支出、推动经济增长。 盛宝市场新加坡首席投资策略师表示："穆迪的降级更多具有象征意义，而非基本面变化，但它确实削弱了市场信心，尤其是在债务和赤字 问题被置于聚光灯下时。这种事件也有被政治化的风险。" 5月19日，A股全天探底回升 ...

固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 如何看待未来资金面 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 短期可适当做陡曲线，长端以震荡思路对 待：固定收益市场周观察 2025-05-12 二永债可适当拉长久期：2025 年 4 月小品 种月报 2025-05-09 5 月债市重点关注资金面：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-05-05 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate shows a trend of "stability with improvement," with Q1 GDP reaching 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The overall price level remains stable, with the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 [1] Changes in Banking and Finance - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, marking the end of the "easy earnings" era for savers, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9% [6] - The reduction in interest rates aims to encourage consumers to invest and spend, while also lowering financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [6] - It is recommended to invest in government bonds, bond funds, and low-risk bank wealth management products as deposit rates are expected to continue declining [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The government plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year, to meet the needs of low-income groups [8] - The pricing of affordable housing will be significantly lower than that of surrounding commercial housing, which is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market and exert downward pressure on housing prices [8] Social Changes - Marriage registration processes will become simpler starting in 2025, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage rates as couples can register with just their ID cards and without needing to return to their household registration locations [10] - The expected increase in marriage registrations may help reverse the declining trend in marriage rates seen in recent years [10] Technological Advancements - The era of "AI democratization" has arrived, with AI technologies increasingly integrated into daily life, such as in delivery services, customer service, and manufacturing [12] - Businesses are encouraged to adapt to these changes by acquiring new skills to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving job market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has officially implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions, effective May 15, 2025, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, positively impacting the real estate sector and overall market confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Real Estate Market - The RRR cut is anticipated to significantly boost market confidence and alleviate pressure on homebuyers, thereby promoting housing demand [1]. - The reduction will enhance banks' lending capacity, particularly for personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans, which are key areas for commercial banks this year [1][2]. - The real estate market has already shown positive changes, with a 3% decline in new commercial housing sales area in Q1, a reduction that is 9.9 percentage points less than the previous year's total decline [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Policy Measures - In Q1, the funding situation for real estate companies improved, with domestic loans amounting to 444.1 billion yuan, a decrease that is 3.8 percentage points less than the January-February period [2]. - The total balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan in Q1, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [2]. - Continuous policy support is deemed essential to stabilize the real estate market and enhance consumer confidence, as indicated by the ongoing emphasis on maintaining a stable real estate market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Beyond the RRR cut, additional funding support policies are expected to be implemented to further stimulate housing demand and alleviate corporate financial pressures [3].

大连友谊(集团)股份有限公司 代 码 ： 证券简称：大连友谊 谊 年度业绩说明会 投资者活动记录表 编 号 ： - 投资者关系活动 类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 √业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □电话会议 □其他： （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 大 连 友 谊 年度业绩说明会采用网络远程方式进行，面向全体投资者 时间 2 0 2 5 年 月 日 : - : 地点 深 圳 证 券 交 易 所 " 互 动 易 平 台 " : / / . . 公司接待人员 姓名 董事长：李剑 董事、总经理, 董秘, 财务总监：姜广威 独立董事：陈玲莉 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 1.请问董事长公司的跨境电商业务是否有开展，对公司业绩贡献有多 少，对于跨境电商业务是否有更深的布局 答：2024 年，公司保税商品零售业务的收入为 10,462.46 万元，占全 年营业收入的比重为 28.11%。感谢您的关注！ 2.公司之后的盈利有什么增长点？ 答：尊敬的投资者您好，感谢您对公司的关注。公司将努力提升收入 和盈利能力水平，有关公司的未来发展规划如下：1、零售业。 在促 消费 ...