Core Insights - The capture of former President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces has led to a surge in optimism regarding Venezuela's economic stabilization and potential capital influx, with expectations of a reconfigured government improving oil output and U.S. relations [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Venezuela's benchmark stock index, IBC, has increased over 130% since the U.S. operation on January 3, 2026, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The IBC experienced a staggering 1,644% increase in 2025, reflecting the volatile nature of Venezuela's stock market [5] - Investors are showing renewed interest in Venezuelan sovereign and state oil company bonds, driven by optimism surrounding potential debt restructuring [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A diverse range of investors, including emerging-market asset managers and hedge funds, are seeking opportunities in Venezuela, attracted by the potential for high returns [5] - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is largely speculative and driven by headlines rather than confirmed outcomes, indicating a cautious approach to investment [6][7] - The potential for a complete re-rating of Venezuela's market hinges on the successful implementation of reforms and stabilization measures [8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts believe that Venezuela is more likely to experience regime continuity with behavioral changes rather than a complete democratic transition, which could allow the U.S. to strengthen its influence in the region [4] - Venezuela's external liabilities, estimated between $150 billion to $170 billion, pose significant challenges to any recovery timeline [7]

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Global Commodities Outlook for Frankfurt Global Strategy Conference Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves January 2026 Daan Struyven Managing Director Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-4172 Daan.Struyven@gs.com 0:53:95 172:212:241 165:165:165 115 ...

A boom-and-bust region is feeling the pinch from cheap oil, even as low prices help at the pump. ...

For the past year, surging oil production from the Americas – led by the United States, Guyana, and Brazil – has been a headache for OPEC in its efforts to rebalance the market and seek higher oil prices. OPEC’s efforts to continue influencing global oil supply and prices could be further undermined by the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and President Donald Trump’s idea to control the oil industry of the world’s biggest crude resource holder. OPEC member Venezuela is estimated to hold 303 billion barre ...

U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters, as he attends a meeting with oil industry executives, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., Jan. 9, 2026.President Donald Trump on Monday said any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff "on any and all business being done with the United States of America."That new tariff on imports from Iran's trading partners is "effective immediately," Trump said in a Truth Social post."This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for y ...

On Saturday, hours after U.S. forces in Caracas killed at least 80 people and kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump sounded less like a wartime commander than a developer surveying a newly acquired property. The country's future, he told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort, belonged to "very large United States oil companies,†which would soon be pumping "a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground. ...

Workforce security and policy reform including contract sanctity are among the prerequisites that have to be in place in Venezuela for the U.S. oil industry to move in, American Petroleum Institute Pr... ...

A very public standoff has opened up between the White House and one of the world’s biggest oil companies, and it is playing out in real time over Venezuela’s oil riches. President Donald Trump has said he is “inclined” to keep Exxon Mobil on the sidelines of Venezuela’s reopening after bristling at CEO Darren Woods’ skepticism about rushing back into the country. The president told reporters on Air Force One that he “wasn’t pleased with Exxon’s response” and added that the company was “being too clever ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments regarding a $2.5 billion building renovation project, which Powell described as a "pretext" for the White House's desire to influence interest rate policy [3][5][6] - Powell indicated that the recent threat is not about his congressional testimony or the renovation itself, but rather a consequence of the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [6] Group 2 - President Trump suggested the possibility of blocking Exxon Mobil from investing in Venezuela after the company's CEO labeled the country as "uninvestable" during a recent meeting [4] - The European automotive sector, after two years of underperformance, is showing signs of recovery, with potential for improvement by 2026 according to investment strategist Joachim Klement [5]

Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer Exxon Mobil Corp., during a meeting with oil executives in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Jan. 9, 2026.U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to sideline Exxon Mobil from Venezuela's energy market, saying he didn't like their response to his calls for oil companies to quickly re-enter the South American country."I didn't like Exxon's response. You know we have so many that want it. I'd probably be inclined to keep Exxon o ...