21世纪经济报道记者柳宁馨 杭州报道 日前，5月经济数据已公布。5月，我国社消零总额为41326亿元，同比增长6.4%，其中，商品消费增速加快，家电手机等产品热 销。以旧换新政策效果明显，对消费增长的拉动作用进一步增强。前5个月，我国社消零同比增长5%，进出口贸易总值同比增 长2.5%，规上工业增加值同比增长6.3%。 国内需求依然偏弱，如何进一步增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用？下一步，以旧换新政策效用如何更好发挥？面对美国对等关 税豁免到期，外贸企业需要做好哪些后续准备？如何看待下半年楼市走向、新质生产力带来的新增长点？围绕这些问题，21世 纪经济报道专访了国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛。 宋雪涛认为，今年前5个月消费增长较好，有以"以旧换新"为代表的消费政策支撑，同时也受益于年初以来出口的高增长和房地 产市场的止跌回稳，居民消费的内生增长动力有所改善。 他预计，二季度GDP同比增速能够实现5.3%-5.4%左右的增长，二季度社零增速依然在5.4%左右，但也需看到，下半年居民消费 的内生增长动能或面临三季度出口增速回落以及房地产价格波动的压力。 在出口方面，当美国与非美国家关税豁免到期，中国"抢转口"或率先面临压 ...

报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3420.566 | | 沪深 300 | 3904.0342 | | 深证成指 | 10217.6287 | 主要指数走势图 10% -20% 作者 刘庆东 SAC 执业证书: S0640520030001 联系电话:010-59219572 邮箱：liuqd@avicsec.com (2025.06.16-2025.06.20) 2025 年 06 月 25 日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 相关研究报告 金融市场分析周报 —2025-06-20 金融市场分析周报(2025.06.03-2025.06.06) —2025-06-13 金融市场分析周报 —2025-06-06 入市需谨慎 股市有风险 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 传真：010-59562637 联系电话：010-59219558 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 分析师 1 规模以上工业增加值:5 月份,规模以上工业增 ...

Economic Performance in the Yangtze River Delta - The fixed asset investment in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui showed positive year-on-year growth from January to May, although Jiangsu's investment decreased by 1.4% due to a decline in real estate development investment [1][8] - In terms of industrial performance, Anhui led the Yangtze River Delta with the highest growth rate in industrial added value in May, driven by the high-end and digital transformation of manufacturing [1][10] - The retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui all grew by over 5% from January to May, while Shanghai's retail sales only increased by 1.4%, primarily due to a decline in restaurant income [1][2][3] Fixed Asset Investment - Shanghai's fixed asset investment grew by 6.2%, while Zhejiang and Anhui saw increases of 1.9% and 0.2%, respectively [6][7] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decline was mainly attributed to a 15.3% drop in real estate development investment, despite an 8.7% increase in infrastructure investment [8][7] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale industries in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang grew by 8.4%, 7.7%, and 7.6%, respectively, with Shanghai's industrial output increasing by 4.8% [9][10] - High-tech manufacturing significantly contributed to Anhui's industrial growth, with a 29.3% increase in May, accounting for 17.6% of the province's industrial added value [10] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in Jiangsu benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories [5] - Shanghai's retail sales saw a turnaround in cumulative growth for the first time in a year, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [4][3]

新能源汽车产业链持续高速增长。5月份，全省汽车制造业、电气机械和器材制造业增加值分别增长 26.7%和20.3%，分别高于全省规上工业增加值增速19.3个百分点和12.9个百分点；全省锂离子电池、新 能源汽车产量分别增长99.1%和20.0%。 投资方面，数据显示，河南工业投资增势强劲。1-5月，河南工业投资增长29.5%，比1-4月加快2.9个百 分点，增速创2022年4月以来新高。其中，制造业投资增长30.8%，比1-4月加快2.8个百分点。 此外，两新政策效应持续释放。5月份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，河南限额以上单位机电 产品及设备类商品零售额增长46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机 及其配套产品、智能手机、可穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7 倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%和27.0%。 近日，河南省统计局公布5月份河南省经济运行情况，全省经济延续稳中向好发展态势，工业生产保持 较快增长，投资、消费增速略有加快，主要指标增速均持续高于全国平均水平。 数据显示，5月份，河南全省规上工业增加值同比增长7.4%，高于全国1.6个 ...

Economic Overview - Hangzhou's economy shows a stable and positive development trend amid a complex macroeconomic environment, supported by various policy measures [1] - The city's industrial output value has significantly increased compared to the same period last year, driven by support for high-tech and strategic emerging industries [1] Industrial Performance - From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Hangzhou grew, with notable increases in sectors such as computer communication and electronic equipment manufacturing (17.2%), automotive manufacturing (23.5%), and electrical machinery (13.8%) [1] - Emerging products like new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots saw rapid production growth, with lithium-ion battery output up by 19.0%, integrated circuit output up by 24.2%, and industrial robot output soaring by 131.1% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Hangzhou increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with project investment rising by 5.7% [2] - Industrial investment grew by 8.5%, accounting for 16.2% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Manufacturing investment rose by 7.0%, with significant growth in general equipment manufacturing (36.6%), electrical machinery (26.9%), and automotive manufacturing (14.9%) [2] Service Sector Growth - The service sector remains a crucial pillar of Hangzhou's economy, with revenue from large-scale service industries (excluding wholesale, retail, accommodation, catering, finance, and real estate) reaching 695.1 billion yuan, a 7.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The digital economy and high-tech service industries outperformed overall service revenue growth, with increases of 11.7% and 10.2%, respectively [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market has shown increased vitality due to various consumption promotion policies, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 374.5 billion yuan, a 7.4% year-on-year increase [3] - Major consumer goods such as home appliances and communication devices saw retail sales growth of 108.9% and 104.9%, respectively, while automotive sales increased by 8.0%, with new energy vehicles growing by 38.6% [3] Trade and Export Performance - Hangzhou's total import and export volume increased, with a focus on expanding overseas markets and strengthening trade cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [3] - Exports to "Belt and Road" countries reached 123.8 billion yuan, growing by 23.7%, which is 8.8 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate [3]

安徽也在基础设施领域发力。1至5月份，全省固定资产投资同比增长0.2%；扣除房地产开发投 资，固定资产投资增长4%。从重点领域看，基础设施投资增长12.4%，比1至4月份加快0.6个百分点， 其中道路运输业投资增长14.5%、加快3.8个百分点。 江苏虽然前5个月固定资产投资完成额同比下降1.4%，降幅比1至4月扩大1.2个百分点，但基础设施 投资保持较快增长，1至5月，全省基础设施投资同比增长8.7%，拉动全部投资增长1.3个百分点。其 中，计划总投资5亿元和10亿元以上基础设施项目投资分别增长7.2%、8.8%。同时，制造业投资增长相 对较快，1至5月，全省制造业投资同比增长4.1%，拉动全部投资增长1.8个百分点。 近日，江苏、浙江、安徽三省统计局相继公布全省经济运行情况。 "三驾马车"运行平稳 固定投资方面，1至5月，浙江固定资产投资同比增长1.9%，其中，项目投资增长12.1%，有效投资 规模扩大。同时，民生"补短板"投资持续发力，基础设施投资增长14.2%，占全部投资的26.4%，比重 同比提高2.9个百分点；生态环保、交通、能源和水利投资增长16.5%。设备工器具购置投资增长 14.8%，增速比 ...

共建环郑大科创圈签约仪式暨郑州大学科创基金启动和科技成果推介大会举办。会上，郑州天健英 才创业投资基金、河南省科技成果转化基金和郑州大学眉湖科创基金启动，基金总规模5.5亿元。 据悉，建设"环郑大科创圈"是落实教育科技人才一体化战略、培育和发展新质生产力、服务创新驱 动发展战略的关键行动。长期以来，郑州大学坚持"四个面向"，加强有组织科研，在基础研究、平 台建设、成果转化等方面取得一系列突破进展。面向未来，学校将聚焦"两高四着力"，坚持开放融 合理念，建设"环郑大科创圈"，高效能运营科创基金、高质量推进成果转化、高水平营造创新生 态、高标准引育创新人才，构建集科技创新、成果转化、企业孵化、人才培养于一体的创新生态系 统，促进整合资源、产业对接，打通科技创新"最先一公里"与"最后一公里"链条，推动科技创新与 产业创新深度融合。 在科技成果推介环节，学校发布了科技成果转化"一门式"管理服务体系，革新管理体制，推动机制 耦合，构建郑州大学"1+3+16"科技成果转化全生命周期制度保障体系。11项重大成果转化与职务 科技成果赋权项目完成签约，覆盖生物医药、新材料、电子信息、高技术服务等领域，合同总额 1.1亿元。14 ...

(活力中国调研行)广东科技上市军团领跑全国 中新网广州6月23日电(记者 郭军 程景伟)2025年"活力中国调研行"广东主题采访情况介绍会23日在广州 举行。据广东省委金融办二级巡视员刘凯文介绍，截至今年一季度，广东高技术制造业、先进制造业中 长期贷款余额分别为1.3万亿元、1.6万亿元；科技保险保额1.43万亿元，同比增长63.9%；科创板、创业 板上市公司408家，首发募集资金累计3312亿元，稳居全国第一。 近年来，广东金融系统通过实施金融"三大工程"(金融固本强基工程、科技金融矩阵工程、金融生态常 青工程)，坚持引导金融要素服务科技"四个面向"，推动广东形成"科技—产业—金融"良性循环，为广 东加快建设现代化产业体系注入金融动能，全力支撑科技创新引领新质生产力发展。 刘凯文表示，近两年，广东系统化完善金融支持科技创新政策，先后以省政府名义出台发展科技金融的 《关于加快推进科技金融深度融合助力科技型企业创新发展的实施意见》(科金15条)和《关于高质量发 展资本市场助力广东现代化建设的若干措施》。其中，《若干措施》出台7大方面28条举措，提出构建 和科技创新相适应的科技金融体系，加速培育新质生产力。 目前 ...

Core Insights - Industrial production in May showed a robust growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the added value of large-scale industries, and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% after seasonal adjustments [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector significantly contributed to industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, accounting for 54.3% of the total industrial production growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing continued to drive quality development, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in added value, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] Industrial Production Overview - In May, 35 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 85.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value growth of 9.0% was higher than the overall industrial growth by 3.2 percentage points, maintaining a share of 36.7% of total industrial output [2] - The automotive industry experienced a significant increase of 11.6% in added value, with other sectors like aerospace and electrical machinery also showing strong growth [2] Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with 10 out of 13 major categories reporting growth [2] - Notable growth was observed in sectors such as cultural and educational products, chemical fibers, and agricultural by-products, with respective increases of 10.1%, 6.1%, and 7.6% [2] High-Tech and Intelligent Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing's added value increased by 8.6%, with significant contributions from sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic components [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector also showed strong growth, with a 9.1% increase in added value, driven by smart devices and electronic components [3] Green Manufacturing Trends - The production of new energy vehicles and related products saw remarkable growth, with increases of 31.7% for vehicles and 52.5% for lithium-ion batteries [3] - The supply of green materials also improved, with high-performance chemical fibers increasing by 92.2% [3] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have effectively stimulated consumption, leading to significant growth in sectors such as motor manufacturing and shipbuilding [4] - The implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies contributed to an 11.3% increase in automotive production [4]

国家能源局20日发布数据显示，5月份全社会用电量8096亿千瓦时，同比增长4.4%。 （转自《经济日报》） 分产业用电看，第一产业用电量119亿千瓦时，同比增长8.4%；第二产业用电量5414亿千瓦时， 同比增长2.1%；第三产业用电量1550亿千瓦时，同比增长9.4%。城乡居民生活用电量1013亿千 瓦时，同比增长9.6%。 前5个月，全社会用电量累计39665亿千瓦时，同比增长3.4%。分产业用电看，第一产业用电量 543亿千瓦时，同比增长9.6%；第二产业用电量25914亿千瓦时，同比增长2.2%；第三产业用电 量7406亿千瓦时，同比增长6.8%。城乡居民生活用电量5802亿千瓦时，同比增长3.7%。 前5个月，全社会用电量增速比前4个月提高0.3个百分点。中国电力企业联合会统计与数据中心主 任侯文捷分析，具体来看，第一产业用电量保持快速增长。其中，畜牧业和农业保持较快增长，同 比增速分别为15.5%和7.2%。第二产业用电量保持增长，高技术及装备制造业用电量增速相对领 先。第三产业用电量较快增长，充换电服务业等新业态用电量保持高速增长。城乡居民生活用电量 增速延续回升态势。 （王轶辰） ...