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5月PMI数据点评:关注“抢出口”之下的预期差
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 15:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].
2025年5月PMI点评:“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖
EBSCN· 2025-05-31 14:31
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
经济运行具备继续回升向好基础!5月经济数据释放多重积极信号
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-31 08:36
中国物流与采购联合会会长 蔡进:从企业的角度来看,大型企业的PMI指数已经回升到了50%以上的景气区间,回升的还是比较迅速,小 型企业回升的幅度也比较大,反映出中国经济运行的韧性还是比较强的。 央视网消息:国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会5月31日发布的数据显示,5月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个百 分点,制造业景气水平改善。经济运行有所回稳。 5月份,制造业供需两端均有所回升。其中生产指数升至50%以上的扩张区间,制造业生产活动有所加快。反映需求的新订单指数较上月 也有所回升,市场需求保持总体稳定。从重点行业看,高技术制造业PMI连续4个月保持在扩张区间,延续较好发展态势。装备制造业和消费 品行业PMI也重新升至50%以上的扩张区间,景气水平有所改善。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧:农副食品加工、专用设备、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数 都是高于54%,相关行业供需两端较快增长。本月新出口订单指数和进口指数较上月明显回升。调查中也有部分涉美企业反映本月企业外贸订 单加速重启,进出口情况有所改善。 5月份非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张 此外,5月份中 ...
上升0.5个百分点!刚刚,重要经济数据发布!
证券时报· 2025-05-31 05:39
高技术制造业PMI连续四个月保持在扩张区间 5月份制造业PMI比上月有所回升。从13个分项指数来看,同上月相比,生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单 指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营活动预期指数上 升,指数升幅在0.2至3.7个百分点之间。 产成品库存指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数下降,指数降幅在0.1至0.8个百分点之 间。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示,生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升,表明在多项 政策综合效应下,企业预期趋向改善,生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 制造业PMI数据出炉。 5月31日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示,5月制造业采购经理指数(制造 业PMI)为49.5%,综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,分别比上月上升0.5和0.2个百分点,均比上月改善。非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%,今年以来连续保持在50%以上,保持扩张。 分析认为,5月份制造业PMI指数出现回升,表明加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现,非 制造业继续在扩张区间平稳运行,细分指数变化显示,投资、消费 ...
制造业PMI回升至49.5%,企业信心保持稳定
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 03:11
装备制造业生产指数较上月上升超过4个百分点,升至54%以上,连续10个月保持在50%及以上。 随着稳增长政策落地显效,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)较上月回升,制造业景气水平有所改善,经济 运行回稳。 国家统计局5月31日发布的数据显示,5月份,制造业PMI为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个百分点;非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%,比上月下降0.1个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,比上月上升0.2个百分 点,我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,制造业企业对近期市场发展信心总体 保持稳定。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为,5月份PMI指数出现回升,表明加紧实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升,表明在多项政策综 合效应下,企业预期趋向改善,生产经营活动有回暖迹象。同时也要注意到,价格指数仍小幅回落,表 明市场供大于求格局仍较突出,需求收缩导致的宏观经济总量失衡尚未改变。 张立群强调,要着力加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础,特别要通过政府公共产品投资力度持续加大,显 著增加市场需求,增加企业订 ...
上升0.5个百分点,最新PMI数据发布
新华网财经· 2025-05-31 03:05
国家统计局5月31日发布数据显示, 5月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个 百分点; 非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%,比上月下降0.1个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,比上 月上升0.2个百分点,我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI回升 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计 师赵庆河表示,5月份,制造业PMI为49.5%,景气水平 比上月改善。 图片来源:国家统计局 企业生产加快。 5月份,生产指数为50.7%,比上月上升0.9个百分点,升至临界点以上,制造业生产活 动有所加快。新订单指数为49.8%,比上月上升0.6个百分点。 大型企业PMI升至临界点以上。 5月份,大型企业PMI为50.7%,比上月上升1.5个百分点,重返扩张区 间,其生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.5%和52.5%,比上月上升1.7和3.0个百分点;中型企业PMI为 47.5%,比上月下降1.3个百分点,景气水平回落;小型企业PMI为49.3%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,景 气水平有所改善。 高技术制造业延续扩张。 5月份,从重点行业看,高技术制造业PMI为50.9%,连续4个月保持在扩张区 间, ...
国家统计局:5月份制造业采购经理指数回升,非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张
news flash· 2025-05-31 01:34
2025年5月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此, 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 (四)进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%,比上月上升2.8和3.7个 百分点。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启,进出口情况有所改善。 (五)市场预期改善。生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,制造业企业对近期市 场发展信心总体保持稳定。其中,农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备 等行业生产经营活动预期指数均持续位于56.0%以上较高景气区间,相关企业对行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张 5月份,非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%,比上月略降0.1个百分点,仍高于临界点,非制造业总体延续 扩张态势。 5月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%,比上 月下降0.1个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,我国经济总体产出保持扩 张。 一、制造业采购经理指数回升 5月份,制造业PM ...
晚间公告丨5月30日这些公告有看头
第一财经· 2025-05-30 13:51
2025.05. 30 5月30日晚间,沪深两市多家上市公司发布公告,以下是第一财经对一些重要公告的汇总,供投资者 参考。 【品大事】 航天晨光:因违规行为暂停参加全军物资工程服务采购活动 航天晨光公告,公司被军委后勤保障部采购服务中心暂停参加全军物资工程服务采购活动资格,暂停 日期为2025年5月29日。此次暂停是由于公司存在违规行为,触及到禁止性处理情形。在暂停期 内,公司法定代表人伍青和自然人控股股东陈伟伟控股或管理的其他企业也将暂停参加上述范围军队 采购活动。公司内部正在核查违规处理决定形成原因并准备申诉,预计该事项将对公司后勤保障装备 产业中的物资工程服务业务产生一定影响。该事项不属于行政处罚,目前公司整体经营情况正常,在 暂停日期前已签订的相关合同不受影响。 渤海汽车:筹划购买北汽模塑等公司股权 股票停牌 渤海汽车公告,公司拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买海纳川持有的北汽模塑51%的股权、廊 坊安道拓51%的股权、智联科技100%的股权、莱尼线束50%的股权,并向不超过35名(含)符合条 件的特定对象发行股份募集配套资金。公司股票自2025年6月3日(星期二)开市起停牌,预计停牌 时间不超过10 ...
龙元建设: 龙元建设第十届董事会第二十五次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-29 09:45
十届二十五次董事会决议公告 股票代码:600491 股票简称:龙元建设 公告编号:临2025-025 龙元建设集团股份有限公司 第十届董事会第二十五次会议决议公告 一、审议通过了《关于设立募集资金专用账户并授权签署募集资金监管协议 的议案》 为规范公司募集资金的使用和管理,保护投资者权益,根据《中华人民共和 国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司监管指引第 2 号-上市公司募 集资金管理和使用的监管要求》等相关规定,同意公司在符合规定的金融机构开 立募集资金专用账户,对本次发行的募集资金实行专户专储管理,并按照规定与 保荐人、存放募集资金的商业银行签署募集资金监管协议,对募集资金的存放和 使用情况进行监管。董事会同意授权公司管理层及其授权人士办理募集资金专用 账户的开立、募集资金监管协议签署等相关事项。 表决结果:同意 4 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票,回避表决 3 票。 关联董事赖朝辉、王初琛、吕江回避表决。 本议案已经公司独立董事专门会议 2025 年第三次会议审议通过。 特此公告。 龙元建设集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 十届二十五次董事会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚 ...
中国铁建: 中国铁建关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-29 09:45
Group 1 - The annual general meeting of China Railway Construction Corporation Limited is scheduled for June 20, 2025, at 9:00 AM in Beijing [1][2] - The voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online voting systems provided by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2][3] - Shareholders must register for attendance by June 18, 2025, and can delegate their voting rights to a proxy if necessary [5][6] Group 2 - The meeting will discuss non-cumulative voting proposals, including the cancellation of the supervisory board [2][4] - Shareholders can vote via the Shanghai Stock Exchange's online voting platform, with specific voting times outlined [3][4] - The company will provide reminder services to ensure that minority investors are informed and can participate in the voting process [3]