行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | -- ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲糖周报：泰国精炼糖市场价格有何波动？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugar production area in China, producing approximately 6 million tons annually, accounting for over 60% of the national output. The local government aims to enhance the integration of futures and spot markets to promote the sugar industry and regional economic development [1] Group 1: Market Background - In 2024, domestic sugar prices fluctuated, with the average sales price for sugar enterprises dropping from 6,561 yuan/ton to 6,075 yuan/ton. The total sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 11.15 million tons, an increase of about 1.19 million tons from the previous season [2] - The sugar market is influenced by various factors, including low carryover stocks and tight processing sugar sources, leading to strong spot prices initially. However, international market changes have introduced uncertainties, with expectations of increased domestic sugar imports and production, posing risks to future sugar prices [2] Group 2: Implementation Process - In January 2025, a major sugar enterprise in Guangxi adopted a hybrid trading model to lock in production profits amid concerns of falling sugar prices. This model integrated off-market options into their spot trading [3] Group 3: Business Model - The enterprise signed a spot purchase contract with a trading company, embedding structured off-market options into the contract while monitoring futures contract closing prices to confirm transaction volumes [4] Group 4: Pricing Scheme - The contract activates when the Zhengzhou sugar 2505 contract exceeds 5,920 yuan/ton, with a validity of 70 days and a base transaction volume of 50 tons per day. The pricing mechanism allows for premium sales compared to market prices, providing a safety margin against price drops [5] Group 5: Effectiveness Evaluation - The enterprise successfully achieved premium sales, with the 2505 contract price ranging from 5,821 to 6,198 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,170 yuan/ton. The average sales price was approximately 50 yuan/ton higher than the market price during the same period [6] Group 6: Risk Management and Training - The hybrid trading model simplifies the use of options for sugar enterprises, addressing challenges such as lack of expertise and management constraints. It enhances revenue while providing a safety margin against price risks [8] - Training sessions and workshops have been conducted to improve risk management awareness among enterprises, covering market trends, price volatility, and risk assessment methods [11] Group 7: Market Development - The introduction of short-term options in February 2023 is expected to significantly boost hybrid trading, allowing for better alignment with enterprises' short-term turnover needs and reducing costs associated with traditional options [12]

| | 付至蔗农手中。 | | --- | --- | | | 4、公司是否考虑并购重组？ | | | 答：并购重组事宜需综合多方因素决策，并非公司单方面可决 | | | 定。当出现合适机会时，公司将秉持审慎原则进行研判，视情况择 | | | 机考虑相关事项，并严格按照规定履行信息披露义务。 | | | 5、公司围绕"一根甘蔗"吃干榨尽拓展产业链，大力发展附加 | | | 值高的增量项目如何实现的？ | | | 答：公司通过燃烧甘蔗渣提供蒸汽及电力，发展循环经济、实 | | | 现资源综合利用。同时，将蔗渣浆用于生产一次性环保纸杯、餐盘 | | | 等纸浆模塑制品，有效提高了蔗渣的产业化利用量，实现了甘蔗渣 | | | 从废弃物到高附加值环保产品的转变。 | | | 6、公司是否考虑通过期货等工具提高公司的经营业绩？ | | | 答：公司作为国有企业，对食糖在期货市场的投放比例受相关 | | | 规定限制。公司将密切关注期货市场动态，结合实际情况，择机运 | | | 用期货等工具进行操作。 | | 关于本次活动是否涉及应披 | 本次活动不涉及未公开披露的重大信息 | | 露重大信息的说明 | | | 活动过程 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the raw sugar price has broken through the support level and declined. The trend strength of sugar is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34 cents year - on - year. The mainstream spot price is 6120 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5795 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 121 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 36 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 325 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower than the same period last year. The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4.73%. Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, China's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons. Cumulative sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.05 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

期货热点追踪 印度泰国增产在即！糖厂利润遭挤压，糖价冲高即拐点？ 相关链接 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 菲律宾糖业监管局(SRA)表示，尽管受到厄尔尼诺引发的干早挑战，2024-2025 作物年度的糖产量预计将比之前的预估增加近 5%。根据最新数据，食糖产量 目前预计将达到 183.7 万吨，高于 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that sugar consumption in India may decline to approximately 28 million tons in the 2024-25 fiscal year [1] - As of mid-May, India's sugar production reached 25.744 million tons, with 533 sugar mills having completed their crushing operations [1] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil exported a total of 919,200 tons of white sugar, a significant decrease from 2.8076 million tons in the same period last year, with an average daily shipment of 83,600 tons, down 37.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Insights - According to Everbright Futures, raw sugar prices have weakened slightly due to smooth harvesting progress, with a bearish outlook unless macroeconomic factors provide support [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that favorable weather conditions in Brazil in May are expected to boost sugarcane and sugar production, while domestic sugar and syrup imports have significantly decreased, leading to a quicker sales pace and lighter inventory pressure [3] - The recent increase in rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the water shortage for sugarcane, suggesting that drought conditions will not significantly impact sugarcane growth [3]

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 巴西中南部4月下半月甘蔗压榨量同比提升，制糖比维持高位,25/26榨季预期产糖量或达4200万吨,全球供应宽松格局强 // 化。前期ICE原糖跌至18美分/磅以下触发国内买船,近月采购量超百万吨,预计6月中下旬起进口糖将陆续到港,三季度供 结 应压力增加。巴西配额外进口成本降至5980元/吨,与国内现货价差缩窄至150元/吨,进口利润修复刺激后续采购。1-3月 糖浆及预拌粉进口24.2万吨（折糖约15. 6万吨）,低价替代品持续挤占国产糖消费空间。综上所述,郑糖维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-S ...