证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月03日 华源晨会精粹 20250703 固定收益 社融有望同比多增——2025 年 6 月金融数据预测：核心预判：依据过往 信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万亿元，社融 3.8 万亿元。6 月末，M2 达 329.2 万亿，YoY+7.9%；M1（新口径）YoY+2.5%；社融 增速 8.8%。我们预测 6 月份社融增量 3.8 万亿（2024 年 6 月社融增量 3.3 万亿）， 同比多增，多增主要来自政府债券及企业债券净融资。三季度利率债料窄幅震荡， 继续看多收益率 2%以上的长久期城投债及资本债。进入 7 月央行依然保持宽松，利 率债调整风险有限，只不过，债基久期及杠杆处于高位，我们预计利率债维持窄幅 震荡。利率债波段操作需要紧密跟踪央行资金面行为，一旦收紧，可能调整 10BP 左右。7 月理财规模预计大幅增长，继续看多长久期下沉的城投及资本债，看多城投 点心债及美元债，力推民生、渤海、恒丰银行永续债，关注保险次级债机会 ...

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14370 | 30 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 79652 | -4273 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 450 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -10158 | -2550 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15400 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 养殖端缩量挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14340元/吨，较前交易日变动+475.00元/吨，幅度+3.43%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格15.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1000，较前交易日变动-285；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 15.54元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动-315； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH09+340，较前交易日变动-245。 据农业农村部监测，7月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.38，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.54元/公斤，比昨天上升1.7%；牛肉63.64元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.10元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；白条鸡17.10元/公斤， 比昨天下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

Core Insights - Shanxi Yunzhou Rural Commercial Bank is actively integrating into rural characteristic industry development and exploring new financial support paths for rural revitalization, significantly increasing financial resources in key rural areas and innovating financial products to meet diverse financial needs [1][4] Group 1: Agricultural Support Initiatives - The bank has launched the "Huanghua Loan" product to support the Huanghua industry, providing preferential interest rates and simplifying loan processes, resulting in a total issuance of 1.231 billion yuan [1][2] - The bank's support has enabled the establishment of an integrated operation model involving bases, farmers, and companies, signing contracts with 21,000 farmers and facilitating the cultivation of Huanghua for 6,000 households [2] - The bank has issued 1.369 billion yuan in agricultural loans to support greenhouse economies, helping farmers like Zhang Min build greenhouses and significantly increase their income [3] Group 2: Livestock and Greenhouse Financing - The "Breeding Loan" product was introduced to support livestock farming, addressing challenges such as high feed costs and difficulties in selling livestock, while also facilitating connections between suppliers and buyers [2][4] - The bank has provided over 122 million yuan in "Breeding Loans," assisting more than 200 livestock farmers and several breeding enterprises in increasing their income [4] - The bank has established a proactive financial service mechanism by collaborating with agricultural departments and maintaining regular contact with local governments to understand industry needs and streamline loan approval processes [4]

Group 1: Brokerage Performance - In the first half of the year, 27 out of 34 brokerage firms' stock selection portfolios reported positive returns, accounting for nearly 80% [2][4] - Huaxin Securities and Dongxing Securities led with returns exceeding 30%, at 35.59% and 34.72% respectively [3][4] - The top-performing stocks in June included Giant Network, which saw a monthly increase of 63.09%, and Shenghong Technology, with gains over 50% [4][5] Group 2: Fund Performance - Active equity funds achieved an average return of 6.78% in the first half of the year, with over 80% reporting positive returns [9][10] - Notably, 347 funds had returns exceeding 20%, and 50 funds surpassed 40%, with 11 funds achieving over 60% [9][10] - The top-performing fund was the CITIC Construction North Exchange Selected Mixed Fund, with a return of 82.45% [10] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Brokerages expect the A-share market to trend upwards in the second half, focusing on emerging technology sectors and maintaining dividend assets as core holdings [7][8] - Key sectors for investment include AI, defense, and high-tech manufacturing, with a shift towards core asset trends anticipated [8] - Fund managers are optimistic about opportunities in AI, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors, suggesting a proactive investment strategy [11][12] Group 4: Macro Economic Insights - External factors have shown that Chinese assets are increasingly attractive, with resilience being a key characteristic of the macro economy [13][14] - Consumer performance has exceeded expectations, supported by policies like the trade-in subsidy, while exports have also remained strong [14] - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks has been significant, with net inflows reaching 731.19 billion HKD, indicating robust market interest [17]

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 【生猪日报】供应端有所收紧 价格上涨加快 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.45 | 15.29 | 0.16 | 山 西 | 15.21 | 15.05 | 0.16 | | 湖北（0） | 14.96 | 14.81 | 0.15 | 辽 宁 | 14.90 | 14.77 | 0.13 | | 安徽（300） | 15.48 | 15.29 | 0.19 | 吉 林 | 14.81 | 14.72 | 0.09 | | 湖南（100） | 15.33 | 15.09 | 0.24 | 黑龙江 | 14.71 | 14.55 | 0 ...

新华社坎帕拉7月2日电（记者聂祖国）乌干达在中国－联合国粮农组织－乌干达南南合作项目下从 中国引进的首批9只简州大耳羊日前顺利运抵乌干达。乌农业官员以及南南合作项目中乌专家等参加了1 日在恩德培举行的接收仪式。 乌干达南南合作项目负责人朱利叶斯·特维纳马西科表示，简州大耳羊的引进有望帮助乌干达提高 羊肉和羊奶产量，增加出口创汇，"未来几年我们将向全国推广这一羊种"。 2012年以来，中国在中国－联合国粮农组织－乌干达南南合作项目下，向乌派遣谷物、畜牧、水 产、园艺、农机等近60名专家和技术人员，开展南南合作一期、二期和三期项目，助力当地农业发展。 据三期项目农业专家组组长张小强介绍，首批9只种羊在乌干达安家后，除了参与品种改良外，中乌两 国还将围绕大耳羊，在养殖技术、饲草培育、羊肉食品产业链等方面展开合作。 乌干达在恩德培国际机场附近的国家动物遗传资源中心与数据库新建了羊舍，临时安置这批进口山 羊。这批简州大耳羊包括3只公羊、6只母羊，在此隔离检疫21天，将运往乌西部姆巴拉拉区域农业研究 发展所，供乌方开展品种改良、育繁及推广工作。 乌干达农业、畜牧业和渔业部动物卫生司司长阿德蒙在接受新华社采访时表示，感谢中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy is actively promoting the use of new energy vehicles, specifically electric loaders, to align with national "dual carbon" strategies and enhance green, low-carbon development in its operations [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The introduction of electric loaders is part of Modern Dairy's strategic layout in the new energy equipment sector, aimed at reducing carbon emissions and optimizing operational costs [3][11]. - The first batch of 20 electric loaders will be deployed in regions with significant electricity cost advantages, such as Inner Mongolia, to validate their adaptability and reliability [5][11]. Group 2: Environmental Impact - Electric loaders achieve "zero tailpipe emissions" during operation, with each unit estimated to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 60 tons annually, significantly improving environmental quality [8][9]. - The introduction of electric loaders contributes to a comprehensive green upgrade for the farms, enhancing sustainability and operational efficiency [7][11]. Group 3: Economic Benefits - The operational cost of electric loaders is notably lower, with initial data indicating a reduction of over 200,000 yuan in annual energy costs compared to traditional diesel models [9][10]. - The noise reduction from electric loaders creates a more comfortable environment for both cattle and employees, promoting a better working atmosphere [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Following the successful operation of the initial batch, Modern Dairy plans to expand its new energy equipment initiatives and collaborate with other manufacturers to replicate success across more farms [13]. - The commitment to green practices is becoming a defining characteristic of Modern Dairy's high-quality development strategy [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan municipal government is actively promoting agricultural and rural consumption through a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing the supply of quality agricultural products and improving market connectivity [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Product Supply and Quality Enhancement - Jinan will focus on six key areas: grain, fruits and vegetables, livestock and poultry, seed industry, urban leisure agriculture, and agricultural services, aiming to develop 10 signature agricultural industrial chains and 43 key product lines [1] - The city plans to cultivate and enhance agricultural product quality, branding, and standardized production, with a target of certifying over 50 green and organic products within the year [1] Group 2: Market Connectivity and Promotion Activities - Jinan will expand market outreach by hosting over 50 promotional events for the "泉水人家" brand and organizing agricultural enterprises to participate in 15 major trade exhibitions [2] - The city aims to strengthen the construction of agricultural product circulation facilities, including the establishment and upgrading of three professional wholesale markets [2] Group 3: Rural Consumption Scene Development - Jinan will leverage local resources to create diverse rural consumption scenarios, promoting leisure agriculture, boutique homestays, and e-commerce live streaming to enhance rural tourism consumption potential [2] - The city plans to organize various festive activities and competitions to stimulate consumption during key agricultural seasons, including the celebration of the Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2]