证券研究报告 | 2025年06月16日 宏观经济宏观月报 5 月增长动能从出口与投资转向消费 2025 年 6 月 16 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 5 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、5 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，比上月回落 0.3 个百分点； 2、5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点； 3、5 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）191947 亿元，同比增长 3.7%， 比上月回落 0.3 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长 7.7%； 4、5 月份，进出口总额 38098 亿元，同比增长 2.7%。其中，出口 22767 亿 元，增长 6.3%；进口 15331 亿元，下降 2.1%； 5、5 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.0%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，持平 上年同月。 5 月国内经济增速约 5.0%，持平全年经济增速目标值。 整体来看，5 月中国经济延续稳健增长态势，其中消费增速明显上升，很好 地对冲了投资和出口增速的回落。 基于生产法测算的月度 GDP 同比增速在 5 月 ...

宏观研究 证券研究报告 5月经济平稳增长表现出较强韧性 第一创业证券研究所 分析师:李怀军 证书编号: S1080510120001 电话:010-63197789 邮箱:lihuaijun@fcsc.com 核心观点: 5 月工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%,高于预期 5.7%,较 4月回落 0.3个百分点,但 1-5月累计值仍较去年全年高 0.5个百分点:5月社会消费品零售总额同比名义增 长 5.1%. 高于预期 4.9%. 较 4月回升 1.3 个百分点, 1-5 月累计值较去年全年高 1.5个百分点:1-5月固定资产投资累计同比增速为 3.7%,低于预期 4.0%,较 1-4 月回落 0.3个百分点,但较去年高 0.5个百分点。 在固定资产投资中,1-5月制造业累计同比增速为8.5%,较1-4月回落0.3个百分 点,且较去年低0.7个百分点;不含电力的基建投资累计同比增速为5.6%. 较 1-4 回落 0.2个百分点,但较去年高 1.2个百分点;而房地产投资累计同比增速为 -10.7%,较1-4月回落0.4个百分点,且较去年低0.1个百分点。 从服务业生产指数看,2025年5月当月同比为 6.2%,较 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and vitality amid external pressures, with policies effectively supporting enterprises and achieving both quantity and quality growth in trade [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2][4]. - Private enterprises accounted for 10.25 trillion yuan of the total trade, growing by 7% and representing 57.1% of China's foreign trade value, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][6]. - In May alone, the total goods trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.7% [2]. Group 2: Market Diversification - China's trade with emerging markets has contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Belt and Road countries increasing by 4.2%, ASEAN by 9.1%, and Africa by 12.4% [2][3]. - Trade with African countries reached a historical high, with imports and exports totaling 963.21 billion yuan, accounting for 5.4% of China's total trade [2][3]. Group 3: Product Quality and Innovation - The export of electromechanical products reached 6.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, making up 60% of total exports [4]. - High-tech and high-value-added products are becoming increasingly competitive, with integrated circuits growing by 18.9% and electric vehicles by 19% [4]. Group 4: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have become a crucial force in China's foreign trade, with their exports growing by 8% and accounting for 65.4% of total exports [6][7]. - The number of private enterprises engaged in foreign trade has surpassed 609,000, marking a significant increase in their participation [6][7]. Group 5: Government Support and Local Initiatives - The government emphasizes policies to stabilize foreign trade, including financial support and market expansion initiatives [7][8]. - Local governments are actively launching programs to enhance the capabilities of foreign trade enterprises, such as Sichuan's "Hundred Enterprises Navigation" initiative and Shandong's "Ten Thousand Enterprises Going Global" plan [8].

对东盟出口大幅增长 从贸易方式来看，湖北省以一般贸易方式进出口2649.6亿元，同比增长36.5%，占全省总值的80.6%，对 全省外贸增长贡献率达101.6%。加工贸易和保税物流方式进出口则分别为311.8亿元和295.3亿元，保持 稳定发展。 日前，武汉海关发布最新统计数据显示，2025年前5个月，湖北省外贸延续高增长态势，实现进出口总 值3287.4亿元人民币，同比增长26.9%。其中，出口2383.7亿元，劲增36.3%；进口903.7亿元，增长 7.4%。 在多重利好因素带动下，湖北省持续扩大对外开放"朋友圈"，民营企业崛起为外贸主力军，外贸结构进 一步优化升级。 民营企业占比超七成 民营企业成为湖北外贸增长的主要动力。今年前5个月，湖北省进出口总值达3287.4亿元，同比增长 26.9%。其中，湖北省民营企业进出口总值达到2329.8亿元，同比增长31.1%，占全省进出口总值的 70.9%，比重较去年同期提升2.3个百分点，成为拉动湖北外贸增长的"顶梁柱"。相比之下，国有企业、 外商投资企业分别实现进出口510.3亿元和446.1亿元，增速分别为28.8%和7.2%。 业内人士分析，民营企业活力强 ...

Group 1: Overall Trade Performance - In the first five months of this year, Shaanxi's total import and export value reached 202.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, outpacing the national growth rate of 3.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 141.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a trade surplus of 80.74 billion yuan during the same period [1] - General trade saw significant growth, with a total import and export value of 82.49 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Trade by Region - Shaanxi's imports and exports with ASEAN reached 34.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [1] - Trade with Taiwan surged by 67.7% to 24.73 billion yuan, while trade with the EU grew by 30.1% to 24.36 billion yuan [1] - Exports to the United States totaled 11.25 billion yuan, indicating a stable trade relationship [1] Group 3: Trade by Enterprise Type - Foreign-invested enterprises accounted for 118.07 billion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, representing 58.2% of the total [1] - Private enterprises contributed 70.03 billion yuan, making up 34.5% of the total trade [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a significant increase in trade, with a total of 13.98 billion yuan, up 23.4% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Export Products - Mechanical and electrical products exports reached 121.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, constituting 86% of the province's total exports [2] - Integrated circuit exports were 51.39 billion yuan, growing by 8.3%, while automobile exports surged by 51% to 26.67 billion yuan [2] - Steel exports saw a remarkable increase of 96.7%, totaling 2.97 billion yuan [2]

一系列大招、实招、好招，即将推出。 6月13日，深圳举办"深入推进深圳综合改革试点"系列新闻发布会，介绍深圳市贯彻落实《关于深入推进深圳 综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》（以下简称《意见》）的相关情况，以及进一步全面深化改革的 情况。 证券时报记者在发布会上获悉，《意见》以系统集成的方式，部署了一大批含金量高、撬动力强、内涵丰富的 重大改革举措。深圳将逐项细化任务书、路线图、时间表，再推出一批改革措施，落地一批创新实验，深化一 批改革举措，有力有序推动意见部署的各项任务落地落实。 从四大方面进一步深化改革 深圳市委常委、秘书长、改革办主任郑红波表示，综合改革试点实施近五年来，各项改革任务扎实有序推进， 取得了重要进展和成效，主要体现在六个方面：一是要素协同配置效率持续提高，二是一流营商环境加快打 造，三是科技创新体制机制进一步完善，四是构建高水平开放型经济体制取得新进展，五是公共服务体制日益 优化，六是生态环境和城市空间治理机制不断完善。 郑红波表示，《意见》在新的起点上赋予深圳一系列重大改革任务，深圳将从四个方面进一步深化改革。 一是在创新、教育、科技、人才体制机制上先行先试。深圳将紧紧围绕建设具有 ...

本周以来 海关总署、国家税务总局等部门 陆续发布权威数据 交出亮眼成绩单 下面一起通过一组数据 感受中国经济的底气与活力 同比增长2.5% 前5月我国外贸保持较强韧性 海关总署6月9日对外公布，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%，延续增长态 势。5月份进出口3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。5月当月，我国出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%。其中，对东盟、欧盟、非 洲、中亚五国出口分别增长16.9%、13.7%、35.3%、8.8%。 离境退税新政实施首月 办理退税数量同比增长116% 离境退税新政实施首月 办理退税数量显著增长 Elistans 离境 退税 全国税务部门办理离境退税笔数同比增长116%，退税商店销售额同比增长56%； "即买即退"业务试点推广至全国，办理数量同比增长32倍，销售额比去年同期增长50倍； 新增离境退税商店1303家，全国离境退税商店已增至5196家，为2024年底的1.4倍。 前5个月我国汽车销量达1274.8万辆 新能源车占比44% 记者6月11日从中国汽车工业协会获悉，最新数据显示，今年前5个月，汽车产销量同比增长均超10%。当前，我 国汽车行业 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks and regional cooperation in response to U.S. protectionism and unilateralism, as highlighted by Lin Yifu from Peking University [1] - China's trade data for May shows resilience despite external pressures, with exports to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asia growing significantly [2][4] - The decline in China's exports to the U.S. by 34.5% in May underscores the need for diversification in trade partnerships [3][4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with notable growth rates of 16.9% to ASEAN, 13.7% to the EU, 35.3% to Africa, and 8.8% to Central Asia [1][2] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations from 2.7% to 2.3% due to trade barriers and policy uncertainties [2] Structural Changes in Trade - China's trade structure is optimizing, with increasing exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Central Asia, which are seen as new growth points outside traditional markets [4] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is strengthening, with exports to the EU growing faster than overall exports, indicating a high degree of economic complementarity [6] Regional Cooperation - The article discusses the significance of regional cooperation, particularly with ASEAN, as a stabilizing factor for the Asia-Pacific economy and a model for multilateral free trade [4] - The ongoing economic dialogue between China and the UK reflects a renewed focus on cooperation, despite geopolitical tensions [7] Future Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to leverage the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to enhance competitiveness and market access [10] - There is a call for continued support for private enterprises in foreign trade, particularly in financing and risk management [11]

AEO(经认证的经营者)制度作为 世界海关组织制定的国际贸易安全标 准,正成为中国海关与国际监管规则接 轨的关键纽带。在东莞,这一制度的落 地实践已展现出强劲动能。黄埔海关数 据显示,截至今年5月底,东莞市200家 AEO 企业以0.3%的企业数量占比,贡献 了全市52%的进出口额。 数据背后,是AEO认证对东莞外贸 格局的深度重塑,更是其从"外贸大市" 迈向"外贸强市"的核心驱动力。 从规模红利 向质量红利转型 对东莞企业而言,AEO认证不仅是 国际贸易的"金招牌",更是突破效率瓶 颈的实用工具。海关为AEO企业提供 的降低查验率、优先查验等6大类45项 便利措施,与40个部委的联合激励政策 形成叠加效应,这种"政策红利+服务创 新"的组合拳,让AEO企业在全球供应 链竞争中占据先机,也为东莞外贸注入 了贵质养升的底气 东莞外贸的进阶,不仅在于AEO认 证企业数量的积累,更在于政策落地的 "精度"与"深度"。黄埔海关推出的"关 长送政策上门"一企一策"服务,针对性 解决企业痛点。在全国率先试点的出口 危化品、竹木草"检验批"监管模式改革, 将检验检疫比例大幅降低。地方政府与 金融机构的协同发力同样关键:省农 ...

刘镇源（左二）与乌兹别克斯坦当地官员讨论项目建设情况。 本文配图均由受访者提供 近年来，中国与中亚国家关系焕发出勃勃生机和旺盛活力。日夜兼程的中欧班列、不绝于途的货运 汽车、往来不歇的空中航班……热火朝天的经贸往来新图景正是生动写照。在这其中，深耕中亚国家多 年的侨商们感触尤深。随着中国—中亚合作的"双向车道"不断拓宽、日益通畅，他们见证新发展，迎来 新机遇，更有干劲，也更有奔头。 在第二届中国—中亚峰会举行前夕，本报采访了生活在哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等 中亚国家的多名侨商，听他们讲述近年来亲历的变化以及对未来的期待。 韩东起（右二）与赴塔吉克斯坦调研的中国一所职校负责人座谈。 何诚（左二）向哈萨克斯坦友人介绍中国剪纸。 更让何诚欣喜的是，在哈萨克斯坦，"家"的感觉越来越浓。从路上行驶的"中国车"，到日常使用的 手机、家电等"中国造"，再到陆续出现在大街小巷的拉面、肉夹馍、火锅等"中国味"……何诚感叹 道："如今，哈萨克斯坦不仅仅是刮起了'中国风'，而是处处都能看到'中国印记'。'中国好物'赢得越来 越多哈萨克斯坦消费者的青睐，当地许多民众甚至不再满足于在中国电商平台上网购，而是选择周末组 团去 ...