So I think my 'Sell' view has been accurate so far as my ratings are always issued based on my view relativeProviding alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis. But first and foremost, I encourage readers to judge me on my performance.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceiv ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that for most companies, interest rate risk is a concern when rates increase, but for Business Development Companies (BDCs), the opposite is true; they tend to suffer when interest rates decrease [1] Group 2 - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on helping top-tier corporates with financial strategies and large-scale financings [2] - He has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance liquidity in pan-Baltic capital markets [2] - His work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks for channeling private capital into affordable housing [2] - Berzins holds a CFA Charter and an ESG investing certificate, and has experience with the Chicago Board of Trade [2]

Group 1 - BDCs (Business Development Companies) are characterized as high-risk assets due to their reliance on providing capital to companies that lack access to affordable financing from traditional banks [1] - The inability of certain companies to secure financing from traditional banks is a significant factor contributing to the high-risk nature of BDCs [1] Group 2 - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, focusing on helping top-tier corporates with financial strategies and large-scale financings [1] - Berzins has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance the liquidity of pan-Baltic capital markets [1] - His policy-level work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks for channeling private capital into affordable housing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated decline in book value for mortgage REITs during Q1 2025, indicating a negative trend in the sector [1][4][6] - Two Harbors is highlighted as a significant underperformer among agency mortgage REITs, facing legal challenges that could further impact its book value [4][5] - The overall volatility in the mortgage REIT market is contributing to the decline in book values, with most companies projected to see decreases ranging from 1.4% to 14.5% [6][7] Mortgage REITs - The article notes that volatility in the market, including tariff issues and bond market fluctuations, is detrimental to mortgage REITs [6] - Most mortgage REITs are expected to experience declines in book value per share, with only one REIT estimated to have a slight increase of less than 1% [7] - ARMOUR Residential REIT is mentioned as one of the larger projected losers in terms of book value [8] Business Development Companies (BDCs) - In contrast to mortgage REITs, BDCs are showing more stability in book value, with gains of about 1% for the top performers and declines of around 2% for the worst performers [9] Legal and Management Issues - Two Harbors' management faced criticism for their performance during the pandemic, leading to a legal battle that may result in significant financial losses for shareholders [4][5] - The potential legal loss for Two Harbors could allow the former external manager to collect approximately $140 million, raising concerns about corporate governance and accountability [4][5] Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes a preference for lower-risk shares due to the current volatility in the market, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in mortgage REITs [10]

ADS Analytics is a team of analysts with experience in research and trading departments at several industry-leading global investment banks. They focus on generating income ideas from a range of security types including: CEFs, ETFs and mutual funds, BDCs as well as individual preferred stocks and baby bonds.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NCDL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinio ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of in-depth research on various investment vehicles including REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1] - It highlights the positive feedback from users, with 438 testimonials, most rated 5 stars, indicating a strong user satisfaction [1] - The article references a chart from John Authers' piece titled "Moody's Blues Comes for U.S. Sentiment," suggesting a focus on U.S. market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure regarding the author's long position in PEP shares, indicating a personal investment interest [1] - It clarifies that the opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, emphasizing the independent nature of the analysis [2] - The article notes that Seeking Alpha's analysts are third-party authors, which may include both professional and individual investors without formal licensing [2]

Group 1 - CION Investment is categorized as a Business Development Company (BDC), which are high-risk, high-yield lenders similar to high-yield bonds and lower-rated CLOs [1] - The performance of BDCs has not been strong in the short term, indicating potential challenges in the current market environment [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a methodical approach to investing, focusing on analyzing earnings reports to identify potential growth opportunities [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment portfolio grew by approximately $300 million or 21% from $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion [4] - Weighted average leverage in the investment portfolio decreased to 3.5 times, with non-accruals at fair value reduced from 2.3% to 1.7% [4][9] - Pre-tax net investment income was $28.5 million or $0.56 per share, with adjusted pre-tax net investment income at $31.3 million or $0.61 per share [27] - Total investment income increased to $52.4 million from $52 million in the prior quarter [28] - NAV per share increased to $16.70 from $16.59 in the prior quarter [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The equity portfolio saw unrealized appreciation grow from $38.5 million or $0.85 per share to $53.2 million or $1 per share [4] - The credit portfolio ended the quarter at $1.6 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19% from $1.3 billion [17] - 100% of new portfolio company debt originations were first lien senior secured [17] - The credit portfolio had a weighted average yield of 11.7% and a weighted average leverage of 3.5 times EBITDA [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lower middle market remains competitive, with a significant number of private equity firms represented across the investment portfolio [20] - Approximately 93% of the credit portfolio is backed by private equity firms, providing guidance and potential junior capital support [18] - The company identified 7% of the debt portfolio as moderate risk due to tariff exposure, with only 1% having both moderate risk and a loan-to-value above 50% [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain dividend sustainability, strong credit performance, and continued access to capital from multiple sources [8] - The recent approval for a second FDIC license allows for an additional $175 million in debt capital to support the direct lower middle market platform [7] - The company plans to methodically raise secured and unsecured debt capital while maintaining a conservative balance sheet [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy changes have created short-term impacts on the lower middle market [11] - The company remains vigilant in underwriting standards due to ongoing economic uncertainties [12] - Management expressed confidence in the balance sheet's ability to endure market volatility, with no maturities until October 2026 [15] Other Important Information - The company raised over $300 million in new debt capital commitments during the year [5] - The regular dividend increased from $2.24 per share to $2.31 per share, with supplemental dividends totaling $0.23 per share [8] - The company has a robust liquidity position with approximately $384 million in cash and undrawn leverage commitments [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: How attractive is the current vintage of investments in the lower middle market? - Management indicated that the current deals are in industries of interest, with a focus on service industries, while cyclical deals are being delayed or pulled [37] Question: What were the main drivers of the net realized loss and markdown in the credit portfolio? - The realized and unrealized losses were primarily driven by restructurings of two companies on non-accrual [40] Question: When will the new SBIC subsidiary start injecting capital? - Capital injection is expected to begin in the next three months, with debenture draws anticipated shortly thereafter [43] Question: What is the outlook for spreads in the current market? - Management expects spreads to tighten slightly due to increased competition for non-tariff impacted industries, but does not anticipate material spread compression [72] Question: What is the comfort level regarding the UTI balance? - Management aims to maintain a UTI balance above $0.50 to support regular and supplemental dividends, with a focus on returning capital to shareholders [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross investment income for Q1 2025 was $11.9 million, down from $12.7 million in Q4 2024 [12] - Net investment income was $7.6 million or $0.34 per share, compared to $8 million or $0.35 per share in the previous quarter [13] - Net assets at the end of the quarter were $301 million, with NAV per share at $13.19 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has 31 portfolio companies, with 21% of the portfolio invested outside of cannabis [14] - The average debt position size is 3% of the debt portfolio, with 76% of the portfolio being floating rate [14] - The gross weighted average yield on company debt investments is approximately 16.6% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated $52.8 million in gross fundings since October 1, 2024, with $32.3 million committed and $20.8 million funded in Q1 2025 [8][16] - The pipeline includes approximately $590 million in potential debt transactions across 35 unique companies, with $462 million in cannabis opportunities and $128 million in non-cannabis investments [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on lending to cannabis companies and other underserved markets, aiming to deploy capital with differentiated risk-reward profiles [6][11] - The strategy includes maintaining a disciplined underwriting approach and being selective with borrowers to build durable investment portfolios [20] - The company plans to grow its dividend component as it scales its platform, with a current dividend of $0.34 per share [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the potential for federal regulatory changes, although the timing is unpredictable [10] - The company believes it is well-positioned for 2025, focusing on proven operators and strong markets [11] - Management emphasizes a long-term view of partnership building with operators, regardless of broader market conditions [24][26] Other Important Information - The company has no non-accruals compared to an industry average of 3.9% [8] - The company closed on a new $100 million credit facility during the quarter, providing ample liquidity for new investments [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: General macro outlook and deployment of $100 million in loans - Management views the U.S. cannabis industry as a collection of individual state markets, allowing for a more focused investment strategy [24][26] Question: Pipeline activity in cannabis vs. non-cannabis sectors - No significant difference in deployment ratios is expected; fluctuations are considered ordinary [28] Question: Flexibility to increase the credit facility - Management believes there is room to grow the senior secured credit facility and add modest unsecured notes in a disciplined manner [29] Question: Debt leverage threshold - The company expects to maintain leverage well below industry averages for the foreseeable future [30] Question: Dividend growth expectations - Management does not provide specific dividend guidance but emphasizes that nearly all income will be distributed by year-end [32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, total investment income was $35.4 million, and net investment income was $15.6 million, compared to $33.8 million and $14.6 million in Q4 2024, respectively [5][18] - The net asset value (NAV) per share decreased by 2.2% to $13.48 from $13.79 at the end of Q4 2024 [17] - The total investment portfolio's fair value decreased by 6.7% from $1.08 billion in Q4 2024 to $1 billion in Q1 2025 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The weighted average portfolio risk rating remained stable at 2.33, indicating consistent credit quality [16] - The loan portfolio is primarily composed of first lien senior secured loans, with 97% being floating rate assets [17][18] - The dollar-weighted average annualized yield on the debt portfolio increased to 15.4% in Q1 2025 from 14.7% in Q4 2024 [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company executed three investments in existing portfolio companies totaling $50.7 million in funded loans during Q1 2025 [6][16] - The company noted a cautious approach in the healthcare lending sector, reflecting broader market conditions [26][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize its portfolio and expand origination channels following its merger with BC Partners [5][7] - A strategic focus on credit-first underwriting practices is intended to ensure long-term shareholder value, even if it results in slower portfolio growth [8][9] - The company is positioned to benefit from a strategic focus that diversifies its portfolio and mitigates risk [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate ongoing market volatility and emphasized a focus on sustainable growth [12][61] - The management team highlighted a shift in venture-backed companies towards profitability and reduced cash burn, indicating a more cautious investment environment [11][12] - The company anticipates muted deal activity in 2025 but believes there will be a need for non-dilutive growth capital in the future [13] Other Important Information - The company extended its credit facility with KeyBank by three years and restructured its privately placed senior unsecured notes [20] - A new stock repurchase program of $25 million was approved, reflecting management's confidence in the company's valuation [22] - A regular distribution of $0.33 per share and a supplemental dividend of $0.02 per share were declared for Q2 2025 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on healthcare lending and its slowdown - Management noted that healthcare lending has been softer and slower, reflecting cautious market conditions [26][27] Question: Update on the investment pipeline - The pipeline is currently seeing a mix of refinances and new opportunities, with a focus on ensuring appropriate structure and pricing [29][30] Question: Trends in net investment income (NII) and dividend declaration - The supplemental dividend for Q2 is lower due to a strategic decision to build NAV rather than prioritize dividend payouts [35][36] Question: Impact of private credit market conditions on pipeline - There is an improvement in the structure of the pipeline, with lower asks in terms of leverage and maintenance of quality covenants [42][43] Question: Highlights of realized gains and unrealized portfolio depreciation - Realized gains were driven by the sale of Gynasonics, while depreciation was influenced by performance and market multiples [50][52]