Group 1 - ArcelorMittal (MT.US), Europe's largest steel group, saw a pre-market increase of 3% to $53.51 [1] - The company's French subsidiary plans to restart the No. 1 blast furnace at the Fos-sur-Mer plant by June 2026, creating a dual-furnace production setup alongside the currently operating No. 2 furnace [1] - The Fos-sur-Mer plant is a key steel production base for ArcelorMittal in Europe, with full production capacity expected to be restored in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 2 - ArcelorMittal has officially announced a €30 per ton increase in the ex-works price for hot-rolled coils (HRC) in Europe, indicating a continued recovery in confidence within the flat steel market [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,120.00 | -1↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 870166 | -30886↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -35320 | +23515↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -29 | -4↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 99613 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 167 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,260.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,344 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,440.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,200.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 140.00 | +1↑ 杭州 ...

Group 1: Energy and Industrial Production - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of March 26, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% for the year[3] - The operating rate of national blast furnaces recorded 79.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points[3] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 2.019 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%[5] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction resumption rate of 10,692 sites nationwide was 62%, a month-on-month increase of 19.5 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.62 percentage points[5] - The average cement dispatch rate was 24.4%, a month-on-month increase of 4.9 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%[6] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - The average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a 28.0% decline in February[8] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from March 1 to 22 decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, an improvement from a 25.4% decline in the previous month[10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Economic Indicators - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) recorded 137.9 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.1 percentage points[6] - The average daily number of domestic flights was 13,400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not yet peaking. Last week, the increase in production was relatively slow, with an increase of 30,000 tons in hot metal production and stable production of the five major steel products. The increase in the production of off - balance - sheet steel products was also not significant, and the production increment may have flowed more to steel billets. The apparent demand has increased, and the increase in apparent demand is greater than that in production, so the inventory continues to decline. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the environmental protection - related production cuts of steel mills in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is acceptable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. From the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, there is insufficient upward driving force, and the upward elasticity of steel prices mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut of BHP has made raw materials stronger, which supports steel prices [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undetermined, and the resumption of hot metal production is the focus of future iron ore trading. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on the shipment of some Australian ports. On the demand side, the hot metal production has increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and the situation of steel exports is acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East being offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the inventory aspect, the inventories of steel mills and ports have both decreased slightly. With the recent decline in the arrival volume and the high - level continuous port clearance under the resumption of production of steel mills, the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain unchanged. Looking forward to the future, under the influence of factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changeable market sentiment, the resumption of production of steel mills, and the undetermined BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 780 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first - round price increase on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for the coke price increase, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, the sharp increase in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses, and the coking operation starts to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, the steel price has rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined, and the coke futures had fully anticipated the coke price increase before, and now there is an expectation of a peak - to - decline. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the auction transactions of Shanxi spot have started to decline, and the Mongolian coal quotation has followed the futures down. After the price increase, the restocking demand has weakened, and downstream enterprises with low profits are more resistant to high - priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight decline recently. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory has started to show a change of active restocking by downstream enterprises. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined. It is necessary to focus on the macro - impact and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the ferrosilicon production decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the production area's operating rate also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the repair of manufacturers' profits, but Qinghai and Gansu still have serious losses. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period. The ferrosilicon export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards. Pay attention to the settlement electricity price changes in the production areas in March. The cost side of ferrosilicon has certain support. Looking forward to the future, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in a balanced state. Pay attention to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the main silicomanganese contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the silicomanganese supply continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks. The production pressure in the southern region is still relatively high, and the loss amplitude has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern production area is on the verge of profit and loss, but the manganese ore cost of manufacturers is mostly the ore at the previous low price, so the profit should be better than the calculation. Pay attention to the implementation of silicomanganese production cuts in the future. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may become marginally looser in the near future. With the increase in arrivals and the expected contraction in demand, the port inventory has started to increase. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on the comprehensive costs of shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may run at a high level. In general, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. There is an expectation of silicomanganese production cuts, which may weaken the demand for manganese ore. Pay attention to the supply change of silicomanganese in April. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800 [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 14 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar increased by 11 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The production of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.0%. The rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.7%, among which the electric - furnace production decreased by 1.5 tons to 32.7 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.3%, and the converter production decreased by 4.0 tons to 165.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 1.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 10.4%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, with a growth rate of 2.2%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, with a growth rate of 1.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Coking Fine, PB Fine, etc. decreased to varying degrees, and the 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5, with a decrease rate of 2.3%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.0 to 17.5, with a decrease rate of 10.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased to varying degrees, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, with a growth rate of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, with a decrease rate of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 18.4% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 6072.2 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 6817.7 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 52 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 3.0% and 3.0% respectively [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 0.0% and 1.5% respectively. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 66 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.1%. The production of raw coal decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.64%, and the production of clean coal decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6% [5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.2 tons to 90.1 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.4%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5 tons to 691.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, with a growth rate of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 216.1 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - The closing price of the fer

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoint - The steel price is currently oscillating and weakening, mainly dragged down by coking coal on the raw material side. The steel price is temporarily following the changes in the raw material side, and the subsequent focus is on the downstream demand situation [2][3] Summary by Related Catalog Industry Data - In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In March, the actual production of tube billet steel mills was 1.3393 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 107,600 tons. The estimated output in April is 1.3542 million tons [2] - On March 31, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,410 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 86 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 21 yuan/ton [2] Industry Events - On March 30, the UK Trade Remedies Authority announced an anti - absorption review of the anti - dumping measures applicable to imported excavators from China to decide whether to maintain or adjust the current anti - dumping duty rate [2]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/04/01 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/03/25 | 2214 | 2286 | 2081 | 2252 | 2237 | 2135 | | 2026/03/26 | 2214 | 2286 | 2081 | 2252 | 2237 | 2135 | | 2026/03/27 | 2207 | 2281 | 2081 | 2250 | 2239 | 2135 | | 2026/03/30 | 2203 | 2278 | 2077 | 2251 | 2238 | 2145 | | 2026/03/31 | 2203 | 2278 | 2077 | 2247 | 2245 | 2145 | | 环比 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结 ...

2026 年 4 月 1 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪偏弱，震荡反复 热轧卷板：市场情绪偏弱，震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 期货研究 商 品 研 究 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） 3,121 | 涨跌（元/吨） -15 | 涨跌幅（%） -0.48 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,294 | -11 | -0.33 | | | | 昨日成交（手） | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动（手） | | | RB2605 | 477,403 | 901,052 | -75,389 | | | HC2605 | 310,343 | 773,076 | -73,740 | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | 上海 杭州 | 3220 32 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand of finished products is in a weak balance, with limited price drivers. The previous rebound was mainly driven by the expected increase in raw material costs. After the basis convergence, the upward momentum has slowed. The market is in a stage of cost - demand game, lacking trend - upward momentum. Short - term trading should follow a volatile approach and be cautious [3]. Group 3: Summary of Key Data Futures Data - On March 31, 2026, RB2605 was at 3121 (down 18 from March 30), RB2610 at 3146, RB2701 at 3168 (down 20 from March 30); HC2605 was at 3294 (down 14 from March 30), HC2610 at 3310 (down 13 from March 30), HC2701 at 3312 (down 11 from March 30) [1]. - Night - session: RB2605 closed at 3124, RB2610 at 3149, HC2605 at 3294, HC2610 at 3312. The spread between RB05 and RB10 was - 25 yuan, the spread between HC05 and HC10 was - 18 yuan. The spread between HC05 and RB05 was 170 yuan, and between HC10 and RB10 was 163 yuan [2]. Spot Data - On March 31, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel was 3190 yuan (down 10 from March 30), Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan (down 10 from March 30) [1][2]. Other Data - From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2737 billion tons, a decrease of 120,700 tons from the previous period [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - On March 31, the iron ore transactions at major ports in China were 1.173 million tons, a 98.5% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 86,000 tons, a 17.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with about 210 independent coking enterprises and 90 steel - mill - supporting coking enterprises, and the total coke production capacity is about 570 million tons [2]. - In mid - March, the output of key coal - monitoring enterprises was 67.56 million tons, a 4.8% increase from early March and a 3.9% increase year - on - year; the cumulative output in early and mid - March was 132 million tons, a 2.6% increase year - on - year [2]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - Adopt a volatile trading strategy [3]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The March PMI returned to expansion, indicating a recovery in supply and demand, influenced by seasonal factors and a positive outlook from the National People's Congress [5] - The rise in the raw material purchase price index suggests a potential shift in PPI from negative to positive, but this may pressure corporate profit margins if the increase outpaces factory prices [5] - The first quarter GDP growth is expected to be at least 4.8%-5%, indicating a strong start to the year despite geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2: Energy Sector - China Shenhua (601088.SH) reported a 2025 revenue of 294.9 billion yuan, a 13.2% decline, with a net profit of 52.8 billion yuan, down 5.3% [11] - Huaneng International (600011.SH) achieved a revenue of 229.29 billion yuan, a 6.62% decline, but net profit increased by 42.17% due to reduced fuel costs [13] - New Energy (600956.SH) is expected to see revenue growth driven by efficient wind power operations, with projected revenues of 223.01 billion yuan in 2026 [24] Group 3: Consumer Goods - Midea Group (000333.SZ) reported a revenue of 458.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 12.08% increase, with a net profit of 43.945 billion yuan, up 14.03% [16] - Anqi Yeast (600298.SH) achieved a revenue of 119.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10.1% increase in its main business, indicating strong sales growth [22] - East Peak Beverage (605499.SH) reported a revenue of 208.75 billion yuan, a 31.80% increase, with a net profit of 44.15 billion yuan, up 32.72% [30] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - The sportswear sector is expected to see steady growth in 2025, with Anta Sports reporting a revenue of 80.22 billion yuan, a 13.3% increase [8] - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 30.99 billion yuan, an 8% increase, but net profit declined by 7% [29] Group 5: Technology and AI - Longxin Technology (300682.SZ) reported a revenue of 4.517 billion yuan, a 0.84% increase, with net profit rising by 141.94% [18] - Baoxin Software (600845.SH) experienced a revenue decline of 19.59% to 10.972 billion yuan, but is expected to benefit from AI trends [28]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not peaking yet. The increase in production last week was relatively slow, and the increase in apparent demand was greater than that in production, leading to inventory depletion. The demand for hot-rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, but the domestic demand outlook remains weak, and export orders are stable. Due to the environmental protection production cuts in steel mills in the first quarter, although demand is weak, inventory depletion is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant. The upward drive for steel prices is insufficient, and the elasticity for upward breakthroughs mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut by BHP has made raw materials stronger, providing support for steel prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures contracts all declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3230 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 contract price fell from 3168 yuan/ton to 3146 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton. The profits of hot-rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees, while the profit of rebar in North China improved from -18 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.4%. The production of five major steel products remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, a decline of 2.7%, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, a rise of 1.8% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, a decline of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, a decline of 1.7% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, a rise of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, a rise of 2.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, a rise of 8.3%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, a rise of 1.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undecided, and pig iron production is recovering. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased significantly this period, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on some Australian ports. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month-on-month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel export orders are acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the future, the focus of iron ore trading will be on the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of inventory, the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased slightly month-on-month. Recently, the central value of arrivals has declined, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain stable. Looking ahead, affected by factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changing market sentiment, steel mill复产, and the undecided BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with the contract range referring to 780 - 830 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, including a 0.4% decline in the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines to 916.6 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis of some iron ore powders changed, with the 05 contract basis of Carajás fines increasing by 1.7 to 108.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Price and Price Index**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port decreased, such as a 0.9% decline in the price of PB fines to 777.0 yuan/wet ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged at 106.4 dollars/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45-port arrivals volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, a rise of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, a decline of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, a decline of 18.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The 45-port daily average desilting volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production and crude steel production both dropped to 0 [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The 45-port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0 days, a rise of 9.5% [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the coke and coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In terms of coke, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and with the significant increase in chemical product prices offsetting coke losses, coke oven operation has started to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, steel prices are rebounding at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is improving but resistant to high-priced raw materials. In terms of inventory, coke plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short-term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. In terms of coking coal, the spot coking coal market has cooled down and prices have declined. The demand for replenishment has weakened after price increases, and downstream enterprises with low profits are resistant to high-priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and coal daily production is gradually increasing. In terms of imports, port inventories continue to accumulate, and customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight recent decline. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, and coke production is also increasing. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is showing a change of downstream enterprises actively replenishing inventory. Strategically, due to Trump's statement that the war will end soon, which has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products, and the continuous conflict affecting macro sentiment, the coking coal spot market has cooled down and prices have declined. The coke futures had fully anticipated the price increase in the early stage and are now expected to peak and decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The reference range for the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800, and the reference range for the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased, such as a 3.0% decline in the coke 05 contract price to 1702 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coke was 52 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts also decreased, with a 5.4% decline in the coking coal 05 contract price to 1149 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coking coal was 47 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, a decline of 0.64%, and the clean coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, a decline of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, a rise of 4.2%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, a rise of 1.1% [5]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of silicon manganese, the supply decreased continuously last week, and the operating rate has been declining for several weeks. The production pressure in the South is still relatively high, and the loss has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern region is at the break - even point, but the actual profit of manufacturers may be better than the calculation because of the lower - priced ore purchased earlier. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of silicon manganese production cuts. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may be marginally relaxed in the near future, and the port inventory has begun to increase due to the expected increase in arrivals and contraction in demand. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on comprehensive costs such as shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may remain at a high level. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts, there is a production cut expectation for silicon manganese, which may reduce the demand for manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the supply change of silicon manganese in April, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800. In terms of silicon iron, the production decreased slightly last week, and the operating rate in the production areas also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the profit recovery of manufacturers, but the losses in Qinghai and Gansu are still serious. On the demand side for steelmaking, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. On the non - steel demand side, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period, and it is not easy to inquire about goods at low prices. The silicon iron export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards, and attention should be paid to the settlement electricity price change in the production areas in March. There is certain support on the cost side of silicon iron. Looking ahead, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in balance. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range, with the reference range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts decreased, with the silicon manganese main contract closing price dropping from 6588 yuan/ton to 6444 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closing price dropping from 5874 yuan/ton to 5630 yuan/ton. The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit decreased by 770.6%. The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit increased [6]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.2 tons, a decline of 2.2%. The manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 30.9 tons to 63.8 tons, a decline of 32.6% [6]. - **Demand**: The silicon iron demand decreased by 0.6%, and the silicon manganese demand decreased slightly. The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.4 tons to 5.5 tons, a decline of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.2 tons to 37.3 tons, a decline of 3.1% [6].