证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 聚焦政策预期博弈 ——每周高频跟踪 20251129 （1）动力煤：煤价由涨转跌。终端企业采购以长协煤兑现为主，下游对高 价煤炭接受度偏低，本周电厂日耗小幅下降。产地煤炭提涨，进口煤优势显 现，港口价格环比转跌。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅收窄。螺纹钢（HRB400 20mm）现货价格环 比+1.2%。前期供给强势，叠加螺纹钢市场进入需求淡季，周产量环比下 滑，推升表观需求改善，去库相对加快。 （3）铜：价格环比止跌回升。美联储 12 月降息概率上升，风险偏好回升推 动大宗商品价格上涨。国内铜库存保持去库，供给偏紧支撑铜价维持高位震 荡。 2、地产：（1）新房成交环比延续上行。11 月 21 日-11 月 27 日，30 城新房成 交面积 212.7 万平方米，环比+9.5%，同比-21.6%。（2）二手房成交进一步回 落。本周环比-0.5%，同比-15.2%。 ❖ 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售维持负增长 1、汽车：11 月 1-23 日，全国乘用车市场零售 138.4 万辆，同比去年 11 月同 期下降 11%，较上月同期下降 2%，但较 2023 年仍有 14%左右正增长。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20251128 ❖ 市场概况：28 日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.68%、上证综指环比上涨 0.34%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.85%、创业板指环比上涨 0.70%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.09%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.06%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.44%、大盘价值环比下降 0.33%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.54%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.50%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.67%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.87%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 593.68 亿元，环比 增长 19.84%；万得全 A 总成交额为 15977.31 亿元，环比减少 7.28%；沪深两 市主力净流入 68.25 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 1.25bp 至 1.84%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 132.44 元，环比昨日上升 0.87%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 188.52 元，环比 上升 0.78%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 1 ...

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week

经济观察报采访过程中，多家钢铁企业、焦化企业均认为，氢 冶金是钢铁行业的未来，未来焦炭使用量势必减少，但焦炉煤 气中含有的氢气，反而可能成为钢铁企业的新需求点。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 曾经被用来"点天灯"的焦炉煤气，正被视为山西焦化业未来的增长点。 山西是焦化大省。山西焦化总产能约有1.42亿吨，已建成的焦炉产能达1.18亿吨。2024年山西焦 炭产量9211.6万吨，占全国18.8%，位居全国第一。这些焦炭绝大部分作为原料，供应给山西省 内及周边省份的钢铁厂。 但国内钢铁产量已趋于稳定。2021年全国粗钢产量约10.3亿吨，2024年产量约10.05亿吨。钢厂 利润持续走低，2021年热卷年均生产利润约800元/吨，2024年已不足100元/吨。 受钢铁行业下行影响，山西焦化行业增长承压。2024年，山西焦化行业工业增加值增速全年累计 下降0.4%，全行业实现营收2356亿元，同比下降12.1%，实现利润-69.3亿元，同比增亏30.9 亿元。 在此背景下，山西焦化企业将目光投向炼焦过程中的各类副产品——如煤焦油、焦炉煤气甚至余 热，试图通过延伸煤化工产业链寻求突破。 苗茂谦是太原理工大学教授、原太 ...

需求有所改善， 不锈钢止跌反弹 不锈钢周报 2025/11/29 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 | | 交易策略建议 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 单边 | 观望 | | | | | | | 套利 | 观望 | | | | | | 02 期现市场 期现市场 ◆ 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，11月28日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8500元/吨，环比-1.18%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价1236 ...

基本面中性，关注 会议表态 螺纹钢周报 2025/11/29 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应端: 本周螺纹总产量206万吨，环比-0.90%，同比-11.86%，累计产量10173.25万吨，同比-2.60%。长流程产量177万吨，环比-2. 45%，同比-13.67%，短流程产量29万吨，环比+9.52%，同比+0.86%。 本周铁水日均产量为234.68万吨，本周铁水回落幅度略超预期。螺纹产量小幅下降，供应端压力较低。利润方面，华东地区螺纹高炉利润 维持43元/吨附近，高炉利润上升明显；谷电利润为-19元/吨，电炉利润水平偏低。 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需228万吨，前值231万吨，环比-1.3%，同比+1.3%，累计需求10043万吨，同比-5.1%。 本周需求小幅回落，需求表现中性偏弱。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯10月进口3.0万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺 ...

1. 《信用 | 万 科 展 期 影 响 再 思 考 》 2025-11-28 2. 《估值有支撑，关注"更高阶"低估》 2025-11-26 3. 《城投 2026，风偏分化？》 2025- 11-25 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.29 高频｜ 地产销售依旧偏弱，电影票房明显回升 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周主要关注点：（1）本周 20 城新房销售环比略有回升，同比降幅继续走 阔，重点城市中，仅杭州新房销售高于去年同期，整体上地产销售依旧偏弱 （2）商品价格大多上行，开工率表现分化，生产保持平稳；（3）电影票房明 显高于季节性，热门电影上映，观影需求集中体现。 ❖ 本周新房销售同比降幅走阔。Wind20 城新房成交面积环比 3.08%、同比 -33.38%。具体来看，新房成交环比回落，同比降幅走阔，二线城市新房成 交面积稍弱于 ...

2020-2025年1-9月中国中厚宽钢带产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,首钢股份（000959）,华菱钢铁（000932）,太钢不 锈（000825）,马钢股份（600808）,包钢股份（600010）,柳钢股份（601003）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国中厚宽钢带行业市场研究分析及产业需求研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国中厚宽钢带产量为1827万吨，同比增长6.5%；2025年1-9月中 国中厚宽钢带累计产量为16947.8万吨，累计增长4.5%。 ...

领航级智能工厂 建设场景中智能渗透率超 80% 工业和信息化部相关负责人介绍，领航级智能工厂代表着我国当前制造业发展的最高水平，为行业持续探索未来发展新模式，对我国制造业转型升级有着 明显的标杆示范效应。 无论是传统制造业还是先进制造业，领航级智能工厂在各个领域都展现出"全流程智能决策"的核心能力，并且带动上下游共同发展不断突围。 目前，15家领航级智能工厂建设场景中，智能渗透率已经超80%，并持续向上下游高价值链环节加速渗透，为各家企业提供可复制的智能制造新模式。 来源：新闻联播 近日，我国公布了首批领航级智能工厂。记者从工业和信息化部了解到，截至目前，我国已建成先进级工厂7000余家、卓越级工厂504家，并遴选出15家 领航级工厂。 在南京钢铁股份有限公司，一 套全链路全流程数字孪生系统共汇聚26条产线，无论是来自国外的矿石，还是矿石成长为"钢筋铁骨"的过程，全都清晰可 见。每一件生产出的产品都有专属的"身份证号"。 这套数字孪生系统，相当于为每一件产品构建了详细的"物料血缘关系"，可以清晰追溯出生产环节中各项数据指标。 对于钢厂而言，库存的堆积一直是行业难以破解的"老大难"，原材料库存过高会导致占用巨额 ...

（来源：要钢网） 201方面，冷热轧弱稳且有价无市，刚需零星找货，买卖则僵持。其中J1四尺冷轧资源锡佛主流报至毛 边7650-7800区间，J2J5资源主流走至6850-7000附近。 综上，如今周末月末收尾，卖货的仍占主，买货少许多，量价窄幅起伏倒也没积极变化，且看次月初能 否转机迎来开门红的可能。 周五晚伦镍收跌20至14820美元/吨，沪镍主力合约收跌150至117010元/吨，上期所不锈钢期货主力合约 收平至12355元/吨，本周盘面几经交替，期镍内外尚处高位，不锈期货徘徊在12300上方，不锈市场难 得到强劲助力，各方寄希望于下周。 现货方面，进入周六市场，正处周末及月末双阶段，早间从锡佛两地了解，304民营四尺冷轧资源主流 报至毛边12200-12500区间，民营五尺热轧大板资源主流维持在12050-12100附近，两地部分报价稳中有 调，多见50幅度摇摆，或是为了在跨月前努力尝试促销。 来源：市场资讯 ...