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美银清洁能源研讨会 - 我们的收获_预期调整-BofA Cleantech Symposium - What we learned_ Estimate Change
美银· 2025-11-25 01:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for HA Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI) and a "Neutral" rating for Oklo, while NuScale Power is rated as "Underperform" [41][21][26]. Core Insights - The tone of the Cleantech Symposium improved due to reduced policy uncertainty and increased corporate interest in capitalizing on power growth themes [1]. - Data centers are projected to account for approximately 50% of the expected growth in U.S. power demand, with a forecast of 80-90 GW of incremental data center capacity by 2030 and a 20-25% rise in U.S. electricity demand by 2035 [2]. - Advanced nuclear technologies, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), are moving towards commercialization, with various companies targeting competitive costs and regulatory approvals [3][13]. - Utility-scale solar is expected to ramp up to 53.5 GW by 2027, although uncertainty in deployment is anticipated from 2028 to 2030 [4][12]. - The need for energy storage solutions is becoming critical, especially in light of supply chain constraints and the shift towards domestic manufacturing [5][11]. Summary by Sections Symposium Panel Takeaways - The Cleantech Symposium highlighted the accelerating U.S. power demand driven by AI/data-center loads and industrial electrification, with solar and storage dominating long-term additions [10][11]. - Interconnection challenges and FEOC compliance are significant factors affecting project bankability and capacity additions [11][12]. Advanced Nuclear - Companies like Oklo and Terra Innovatum are making strides in regulatory engagement and fuel flexibility, with Oklo's first reactor construction underway [21][22][13]. - NuScale's path to commercialization remains uncertain, hinging on key agreements and regulatory approvals [24][26]. Solar and Storage - The residential solar market is expected to see a reset in demand as the 25D ITC expires, but financing innovations may provide pathways for growth [15][17]. - T1 Energy is ramping up domestic module production, with a focus on reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains and increasing domestic content [19][45]. Grid and Energy Efficiency - HASI is expanding its investment pipeline, with a significant project in the SunZia Wind South onshore wind project, indicating strong growth potential in renewable energy investments [37][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chains and the need for compliance with FEOC regulations to ensure project viability [19][20].