The inflation story has been one of the defining narratives for U.S. markets in recent years. Though the Fed has put in a lot of effort trying to tame it, the challenge has grown potentially even more complex. Tariff impacts are still unfurling for the broader economy, potentially pushing prices higher. What's more, the Fed's dual obligation of economic support and taming inflation saw the bank cut rates last month, potentially reinflating prices. An inflation ETF, then, could intrigue as a contrarian play, ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue estimated at $10.7 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [1][10] - The earnings consensus has slightly decreased to $2.10 per share, indicating a nearly 10% rise compared to the previous year's quarter [2][10] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The revenue estimate of $10.7 billion represents an 8% increase from the prior-year quarter [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $2.10 suggests a growth of almost 10% from the same quarter last year [2] Key Growth Drivers - Continued momentum in PM's smoke-free product portfolio, particularly with IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, is expected to drive growth [3][10] - Management anticipates double-digit volume growth in smoke-free products for the second half of 2025, supported by a multicategory strategy aimed at converting users from combustible products [3] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - PM is on track to achieve $2 billion in gross cost savings through its 2024-2026 program, focusing on manufacturing productivity and overhead optimization [4] - Despite investments in marketing and brand equity potentially impacting profitability, operational efficiency and pricing initiatives are expected to protect profit margins [4][10] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for PM, as it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of -0.66% [5]

Group 1 - The focus is on income-producing asset classes such as REITs, ETFs, Preferreds, and 'Dividend Champions' that target premium dividend yields up to 10% [1] - iREIT®+HOYA Capital is highlighted as a premier income-focused investing service that offers sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [2] - Corteva, Inc. is undergoing a division into two companies, which introduces uncertainty in investment decisions [3]

Core Insights - BASF Agricultural Solutions Canada has launched the Fields of Purpose program aimed at enhancing rural impact through community-led initiatives that support Canadian growers and retailers [1][2] - The program focuses on donating 100% of crops grown by local growers to benefit rural communities and organizations, emphasizing the importance of community involvement [1][3] Financial Contributions - In 2025, BASF contributed $100,000 in seed and crop protection products to support charitable fields, ensuring maximum yield and crop quality [2] - The program supported 36 initiatives across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario, showcasing BASF's commitment to community engagement [2] Community Engagement - The Leduc & District Growing Project, which has been active for 20 years, exemplifies the program's impact, with all inputs and labor for seeding and harvesting donated [3] - Funds generated from the sale of crops are directed to the Canadian Food Grains Bank, highlighting the program's role in addressing food security [3] Company Overview - BASF Agricultural Solutions Canada employs over 625 individuals across three production facilities and several research farms, positioning itself as a leader in agricultural research and product development [5] - The division generated sales of €9.8 billion in 2024, reflecting its significant role in the agricultural sector [6] Sustainability Commitment - BASF is dedicated to integrating sustainability into its business decisions, investing €919 million in R&D in 2024 to develop innovative agricultural solutions [6] - The company aims to combine economic success with environmental protection and social responsibility, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable agriculture [8]

Market Overview - Wall Street remains largely unfazed by the U.S. government shutdown, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 20 points, and the Nasdaq composite increasing by 0.3% [1] - The bond market saw a significant drop in Treasury yields, influenced by disappointing employment data [2][11] Employment Data - The ADP Research survey indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs outside the government, with the Midwest particularly affected, and a downward revision of August's employment figures from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000 [2][4] - The upcoming Labor Department report is expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown, increasing uncertainty in the job market [4][5] Company Performance - Peloton Interactive's stock fell by 8.6% following a lukewarm reception to its new AI and computer vision system [6] - Corteva's shares dropped 8.3% after announcing a split into two companies, one focusing on seeds and the other on crop protection [7] - Cal-Maine Foods experienced a 2.4% decline as its quarterly profit and revenue fell short of analysts' expectations [7] - Conversely, Nike's stock rose 4.9% after exceeding profit expectations, driven by strong apparel sales in North America [8] - Lithium Americas saw a significant stock increase of 26.1% after the U.S. government approved a $2.26 billion loan, with the Department of Energy taking an ownership stake [9] Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.11% from 4.16%, reflecting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to weaker-than-expected payroll and manufacturing data [11]

Separation Overview - Corteva plans to separate into two independent public companies by October 1, 2025 [1] - The separation aims to create two market-leading entities with distinct market opportunities and tailored business models [16, 17, 21] - The transaction is expected to be completed in H2 2026, subject to customary conditions [24] New Corteva (Crop Protection) - 2025E Revenue is projected to be $78 billion [21] - 2025E Operating EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 17%, with $135 billion Operating EBITDA [21] - The company's business mix includes 49% Herbicides, 23% Insecticides, 15% Fungicides, 6% Biologicals, and 7% Other [29] - Differentiated products account for 65% in 2024A [31] SpinCo (Seed) - 2025E Revenue is projected to be $99 billion [21] - 2025E Operating EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 26%, with $26 billion Operating EBITDA [21] - The company holds approximately 8000 patents [40] - The company holds leadership positions across geographies, including 1 in Corn in North America, EMEA, and APAC [38] Financial Performance - Corteva has delivered $7 billion to shareholders through June 2025 [13] - Total Shareholder Return is approximately 200% through June 2025 [13] - Cumulative R&D Investment is $89 billion [13] - Operating EBITDA Growth CAGR is 11% [13] - Operating EBITDA Margin Improvement is over 700 bps [13]

Group 1: Intel and Semiconductor Industry - Intel's stock increased by 6.4% following reports of discussions with Apple regarding a potential stake purchase [3] - The rise in Intel's shares was also supported by Micron Technology's positive outlook for PCs and traditional servers, which are key markets for Intel [3] - Over the past month, Intel's stock has gained more than 25%, driven by significant investments from the U.S. government, SoftBank, and Nvidia [3] Group 2: Mining and Commodities - Freeport-McMoRan's shares fell by 17% after the company lowered its forecasts for quarterly copper and gold sales due to issues at its Indonesia unit [4] - The company declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine following a mud flow that blocked access and resulted in fatalities [4] Group 3: Law Enforcement Technology - Axon Enterprise's shares dropped by 10% after announcing the acquisition of Prepared, an AI-powered emergency communications platform [5] - Analysts from Needham maintained a "buy" rating on Axon stock, while Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a bullish "overweight" rating [5] Group 4: Energy Sector - Xcel Energy's shares rose by 6.7% after the company agreed to settle litigation related to the 2021 Marshall Fire for approximately $640 million [6] Group 5: Health Insurance - Centene's shares increased by 5.8% after its subsidiary Meridian Health paid $15 million in value-based care incentives, indicating improved health outcomes for Medicaid members [7] Group 6: Agricultural Chemicals - Shares of agricultural chemical companies Mosaic and CF Industries Holdings rose by 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively, following reports of bipartisan support for stabilizing fertilizer markets [9]

Core Viewpoint - Corteva is reportedly considering splitting into two separate companies, which has led to a rise in its shares during premarket trading [1][3]. Company Background - Corteva was established in 2018 as the agricultural division of the merged DowDuPont and became an independent entity in 2019 through a three-way spinoff involving Corteva, DuPont, and Dow [2]. - The company, along with Bayer, holds a dominant position in the U.S. corn and soybean seed market [2]. Strategic Considerations - The potential split may be motivated by a desire to mitigate risks associated with pesticide lawsuits, similar to those faced by Bayer regarding its Roundup weedkiller [2][3]. - Corteva shares have increased approximately 30% year-to-date, indicating positive market sentiment leading up to the potential announcement [3].

Group 1 - Corteva is considering a breakup to separate its seed and pesticide businesses into two distinct companies [1] - The decision is influenced by ongoing discussions and insights from individuals familiar with the matter [1] - This potential restructuring reflects a broader trend in the agriculture industry towards specialization [1]

Company Overview - FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) is a leader in insecticides, herbicides, plant nutrition, and fungicides with global operations [1] Current Stock Performance - The stock is currently trading at some of the worst levels in the past decade, indicating significant challenges for the company [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology, which provides a broad perspective on investment opportunities [1] Research Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, researching hundreds of different companies, with a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, as well as comfort in other industries like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]