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Advance Auto Parts is A Great Risk/Reward Play If EPS Delivers
MarketBeatยท 2025-09-22 17:23
Core Viewpoint - Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is positioned as a potential investment opportunity due to its current stock price being significantly lower than its historical highs, coupled with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth, making it an attractive risk-to-reward setup for investors [3][4][5]. Company Overview - Advance Auto Parts is a key player in the automotive supply chain, providing parts for both bulk and retail markets, which positions the company favorably in the current industry landscape affected by trade tariffs [5][6]. - The stock is currently trading at approximately 85% of its 52-week high, following a year-to-date rally of 28.2%, yet it remains below its peak of $244 per share in 2022 [6][11]. Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector has faced supply chain disruptions, particularly due to tariffs and the aftermath of COVID-19, leading consumers to turn to the used vehicle market, which in turn increases demand for aftermarket parts [7][8][10]. - As consumers maintain their current vehicles due to limited new vehicle availability, the demand for parts is expected to rise, supporting the EPS forecast of $1.05 by Q3 2025 [10]. Financial Performance - The most recent quarterly earnings reported an EPS of 69 cents, exceeding the consensus estimate of 59 cents, indicating that the anticipated industry dynamics may be materializing sooner than expected [11][12]. - Analysts project a 52% growth rate in EPS from the current figure, with a price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.3x suggesting that a significant portion of future growth is not yet reflected in the stock price [11][12]. Institutional Interest - Institutional investors, such as State Street, have increased their holdings in Advance Auto Parts by 13.5%, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects [13][14]. - The company's market capitalization of $3.6 billion allows for greater potential growth compared to larger firms, presenting a favorable risk-to-reward scenario for investors [14][15].