JGB futures edged higher early Tokyo trade as investors assess Japan’s 1st estimate of 4Q GDP data released earlier. https://t.co/d1gUZmqhul ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of the U.S. labor market as indicated by the January non-farm payroll data, which exceeded market expectations and impacted market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3] - The January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly above the market expectation of 70,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% [3] - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees rose by $0.15 to $37.17, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, also surpassing market expectations [3] Group 2 - The strong non-farm payroll data led to a rapid decline in the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March dropping from 19.6% to 6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94% [3] - Following the release of the non-farm data, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 50,121.40 points, down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.16% [4] - Concerns regarding the AI industry and the cooling of rate cut expectations contributed to the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, with technology stocks particularly affected [4] Group 3 - In contrast to the pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, precious metals such as gold and silver saw a V-shaped reversal, with gold prices rising from a low of $5,020.07 per ounce to $5,089.36 per ounce [5] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to safe-haven demand amid ongoing AI industry concerns and a retreat in the U.S. dollar, despite the cooling rate cut expectations [5] - The oil market exhibited a volatile pattern, with Brent crude oil reaching nearly $70 per barrel before retreating due to global demand concerns and a strengthening dollar, ultimately closing at $69.40 per barrel [5] Group 4 - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. CPI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials to further assess the direction of monetary policy, while ongoing dynamics in the AI industry and geopolitical issues in the Middle East continue to influence market sentiment [6] - The sustained pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, the momentum of gold and silver prices, and the potential for oil prices to break out of their current volatility remain to be validated by future data and events [6]

Group 1: Money Market Performance - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [2] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [2] - The year-end balance of interbank lending was 1.0 trillion yuan, while the balance of bond repurchase was 12.0 trillion yuan [2] - The weighted average interest rate for overnight pledged repos (DR001) was 1.46%, down 19 basis points from 2024 [2] Group 2: Bond Market Performance - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 250 billion yuan from 2024 [3] - Net financing for corporate bonds was 240 billion yuan, an increase of 48.23 billion yuan from 2024 [3] - The bond market's custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [3] - The trading volume in the cash market was 425.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.4% from 2024 [3] Group 3: Derivatives Market Performance - The transaction volume in the interbank RMB derivatives market was 58.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.6% from 2024 [4] - The transaction volume in the government bond futures market was 9.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% from 2024 [4] - The year-end closing price for the 10-year government bond futures main contract was 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from 2024 [4] Group 4: Bill Market Performance - In 2025, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 42.7 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 33.9 trillion yuan [5] - The acceptance balance of commercial bills was 21.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% from the end of 2024 [5] - The discount balance was 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% from the end of 2024 [5] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% from the end of 2024 [6] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% from the end of 2024 [6] - The average daily trading volume in both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% from 2024 [6] Group 6: Interbank Bond Market Holder Structure - By the end of 2025, there were 3923 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [7] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total, mainly concentrated in state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [7] - The top 200 investors accounted for 84.5% of the holdings [7]

Global investors swarmed into Indonesian debt just before the market turned against them https://t.co/NpWccJvct9 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened up by 1.5% [1] - The Seoul Composite Index opened up by 4.1% [1] - Spot gold rose to approximately $5040, increasing by 1.6% during the day [1] - Spot silver surpassed the $80 mark, with a daily increase of over 3% [1] Group 2 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds increased by 6.5 basis points, reaching 3.615% [1]

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2025, China's green loan balance in both domestic and foreign currencies is expected to reach 44.77 trillion yuan, with an annual increase of 7.72 trillion yuan, achieving over 20% growth year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to supporting green development and facilitating a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society [1] Group 1: Green Bond Market - In 2025, China's green bond market experienced significant growth, with 647 bonds issued and a total issuance scale of 10,784.33 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 35.64% and 58.26% respectively [4] - The cumulative issuance of green bonds in the domestic market exceeded 3,000 bonds, with a total issuance scale of approximately 5.24 trillion yuan, showcasing high-quality development through innovative products and record-breaking first issuances [4] Group 2: Green External Debt Pilot - In 2025, a pilot program for green external debt was launched in 16 cities, allowing green external debt projects to occupy less of the total cross-border financing risk-weighted balance, thereby expanding the financing scale for green development projects [5] - The pilot program facilitates the introduction of low-cost international funds into domestic green projects, establishing a rapid channel for financing [5] Group 3: New Green Finance Support Project Directory - The People's Bank of China and regulatory authorities released the 2025 version of the Green Finance Support Project Directory, which includes new categories such as green trade and green consumption, and enhances alignment with national economic sectors [6] - The directory aims to unify standards for green finance products and provide clear guidelines for financial institutions, supporting emerging areas like green trade and consumption [6] Group 4: Financial Institutions' Disclosure Rules - In 2025, a new climate disclosure standard was introduced, requiring companies to disclose climate-related risks and opportunities, which will serve as a foundation for financial institutions in managing climate risks and identifying qualified transition financing clients [8] - The standardization of climate information disclosure will enhance the risk management capabilities of financial institutions and drive resources towards green and low-carbon sectors [8] Group 5: Transformation Finance Practices - In 2025, various provinces implemented transformation finance guidelines for industries such as construction materials and textiles, leading to the launch of the first transformation loans in multiple regions [9] - The collaboration between transformation finance and green financial tools effectively addresses the financing bottlenecks faced by high-carbon industries transitioning to low-carbon operations [9] Group 6: Development of Green Insurance - Green insurance evolved from single product innovation to a systematic development phase, with new products introduced to cover climate risks and support ecological value transformation [10] - The implementation of a high-quality development plan for green finance by regulatory authorities emphasizes the optimization of insurance products related to climate risks [10] Group 7: Biodiversity Financial Products - In 2025, financial support for biodiversity transitioned from concept to practice, with innovative products linking financing to biodiversity protection metrics [11] - These products aim to convert ecological value into tangible assets, broadening financing pathways for ecological protection projects [11] Group 8: Digitalization of Green Finance - The integration of technology into green finance has accelerated, with the establishment of digital platforms aimed at improving service models and addressing information asymmetries [12] - Initiatives such as blockchain-based platforms and digital financing projects are enhancing the efficiency and precision of fund allocation for green projects [12] Group 9: Differentiated Financial Support for Beautiful China - In 2025, action plans for key regions like the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta included green finance as a critical support for ecological protection and low-carbon transitions [13] - The differentiated deployment of green finance in these regions is expected to create replicable experiences for building a multi-layered green finance system nationwide [13] Group 10: Issuance of Green Sovereign Bonds - In 2025, the Ministry of Finance successfully issued the first green sovereign bonds worth 6 billion yuan in London, achieving record low interest rates for offshore RMB bonds [14] - The issuance attracted significant international interest, demonstrating China's commitment to utilizing international capital markets for green transformation [15]

Group 1 - The Government Debt Management offered 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction on January 23 at the price of accepted bids [1] Group 2 - The additional issuance of RIKB 28 1115 is 260,000,000 [2] - The total outstanding nominal value for RIKB 28 1115 is 129,667,301,519 [2] - The total outstanding nominal value for RIKS 37 0115 is 72,262,600,000 [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI)**, which has reached its highest levels since 2021, indicating a strong risk-on sentiment in the market [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - The RAI reached **1.09**, marking the highest level since 2021 and the **98th percentile since 1991**. This indicates a broad risk-on repricing, with **17 out of 27 inputs** of the RAI above **0.8** in z-score terms [1][12]. - Key bullish components contributing to the elevated RAI include: - Small vs. Large cap equities - Emerging Markets (EM) vs. Developed Markets (DM) equities - Bonos spreads - AUD/JPY currency pair [1][12]. - The gold rally suggests a more cautious sentiment; excluding gold, the RAI would be nearly **1.2** [1]. - The **Global growth factor (PC1)** was identified as the main driver behind the increase in the RAI [1][42]. - Historically, elevated RAI levels have been associated with positive equity returns, particularly in the subsequent **12 months**, although returns tend to slow after about **6 months** [2][4]. - The most negative episode occurred in **May 2007**, while the most positive was in **2021**, which coincided with a prolonged period of RAI above **1** [2]. Additional Important Insights - Elevated RAI levels alone do not signal a bearish turn; a supportive macro backdrop is necessary for sustaining positive equity returns [3][4]. - The distribution of S&P 500 returns is influenced by the starting RAI level, with a higher likelihood of small corrections when starting from an RAI above **0.9** [3]. - The company maintains a **modestly pro-risk** asset allocation for **2026**, favoring equities while being underweight in credit [5][21]. - Selective options hedges are being considered for both downside and upside growth risks, with attractive spreads identified on Nasdaq/S&P 500 and call spreads on various indices [6]. Conclusion - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high risk appetite, supported by macroeconomic factors, which could lead to sustained positive equity returns. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on this environment while managing risks through selective hedging strategies.

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures experienced a decline while global government bond yields increased as traders anticipate the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for December [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock futures slipped, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors ahead of key economic data [1] - Global government bond yields rose, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China FX and rates markets**, tracking developments in foreign exchange and interest rates, including valuations, policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals [4][5][34]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: China's economy is projected to achieve approximately **5% year-on-year growth in 2025**, with a forecast of **4.8%** for 2026, surpassing the market consensus of **4.5%**. This outlook is based on strong exports and fiscal easing estimated at **1.2 percentage points of GDP** [4][5]. 2. **Policy Easing Approach**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on medium-term growth rather than short-term cyclical issues. A lower growth target range of **4.5-5%** may indicate a higher tolerance for growth slowdown and reduced willingness for policy easing [4][5]. 3. **CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics**: The USD/CNY spot rate fell below **7.0** by the end of 2025, driven by broad USD weakness and year-end FX settlement demand. A gradual appreciation of CNY is anticipated, although a sharp appreciation could negatively impact exporters' profitability [4][5]. 4. **Interest Rate Cuts**: The PBOC is expected to implement two **10 basis points** cuts in the policy rate in 2026, reducing the **7-day OMO rate** to **1.2%** by the end of the year. This is part of a strategy to facilitate government bond issuance and manage liquidity [5][34]. 5. **Long-term CGB Yields**: Increased supply of long-term Chinese government bonds (CGBs) due to fiscal easing may lead to upward pressure on long-term yields, although weaker domestic demand could pose downside risks [5][34]. 6. **Trade Balance Improvement**: China's trade balance has improved, with a significant increase in the goods trade surplus. Travel exports reached about **200%** of 2019 levels, while travel imports were around **97%** of 2019 levels as of November 2025 [39][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Liquidity Management**: The PBOC has been active in liquidity management through open market operations (OMO) and repo transactions, with net liquidity injections noted in December [76][81]. 2. **Bond Issuance Trends**: Net issuance of central government bonds was approximately **RMB 335 billion** in December 2025, with local government bond issuance also showing significant activity [85][88]. 3. **Foreign Investor Activity**: Foreign investors continued to sell negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) in November, indicating a cautious stance towards the Chinese bond market [116]. 4. **Market Expectations**: Rising market expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut around the Lunar New Year holiday suggest a proactive approach to stimulate credit extension to major projects [5][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, policy strategies, and market dynamics relevant to the China FX and rates markets.