南方财经记者郭晓洁实习生王泽楠广州报道 截至2025年末，中国本外币绿色贷款余额44.77万亿元，全年增加7.72万亿元，在高基数基础上同比实现超过20%的增长，金融 支持绿色发展的力度持续加码，成为推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要力量。 回顾2025年，中国绿色金融发展迈入标准统一、创新深化、开放协同的全新阶段。从顶层制度的持续完善到市场产品的多元突 破，从国内区域的差异化实践到国际领域的深度接轨，金融"活水"精准滴灌绿色低碳发展的脉络清晰可见。 这一年，绿色金融作为"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型"的重要支撑，被纳入多项重大战略部署。国家层面陆续出台新版绿色 金融支持项目目录、金融机构气候信息披露准则等制度文件；绿色金融对外开放迈出关键步伐，绿色外债试点、境外绿色主权 债券发行，中国绿色金融深度融入全球市场。 同时，行业创新实践实现多方位突破，绿色债券市场量价齐升，创新产品层出不穷，转型金融在各省市多点开花，为高碳行业 低碳转型注入金融动能，生物多样性金融、绿色保险从理念走向规模化实践，科技赋能让绿色金融数字化平台建设提速。 我们梳理了2025年度绿色金融十大关键词，记录金融助力美丽中国建设的关键探索与坚 ...

As stated in paragraph 6 in General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds, the Government Debt Management offered the equivalent of 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction 23. January, at the price of accepted bids. SeriesRIKB 28 1115RIKS 37 0115ISINIS0000028249IS0000033793Additional issuance (nominal)260,000,0000Settlement date01/28/2026 Total outstanding (nominal)129,667,301,51972,262,600,000 ...

GOAL KICKSTART Back to Bullish – Risk Appetite Indicator at highest levels since 2021 Our Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) remained elevated despite more policy and geopolitical uncertainty last week and reached new highs of 1.09 on Thursday (Exhibit 1). This is the highest level since 2021, the 98th percentile since 1991. The risk-on repricing YTD has been broad, with 17 out of the 27 inputs of the RAI above 0.8 in z-score terms (Exhibit 2). The most bullish components have been the Small vs. Large cap, EM vs ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures experienced a decline while global government bond yields increased as traders anticipate the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for December [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock futures slipped, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors ahead of key economic data [1] - Global government bond yields rose, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding inflation and interest rates [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China FX and rates markets**, tracking developments in foreign exchange and interest rates, including valuations, policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals [4][5][34]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: China's economy is projected to achieve approximately **5% year-on-year growth in 2025**, with a forecast of **4.8%** for 2026, surpassing the market consensus of **4.5%**. This outlook is based on strong exports and fiscal easing estimated at **1.2 percentage points of GDP** [4][5]. 2. **Policy Easing Approach**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on medium-term growth rather than short-term cyclical issues. A lower growth target range of **4.5-5%** may indicate a higher tolerance for growth slowdown and reduced willingness for policy easing [4][5]. 3. **CNY Exchange Rate Dynamics**: The USD/CNY spot rate fell below **7.0** by the end of 2025, driven by broad USD weakness and year-end FX settlement demand. A gradual appreciation of CNY is anticipated, although a sharp appreciation could negatively impact exporters' profitability [4][5]. 4. **Interest Rate Cuts**: The PBOC is expected to implement two **10 basis points** cuts in the policy rate in 2026, reducing the **7-day OMO rate** to **1.2%** by the end of the year. This is part of a strategy to facilitate government bond issuance and manage liquidity [5][34]. 5. **Long-term CGB Yields**: Increased supply of long-term Chinese government bonds (CGBs) due to fiscal easing may lead to upward pressure on long-term yields, although weaker domestic demand could pose downside risks [5][34]. 6. **Trade Balance Improvement**: China's trade balance has improved, with a significant increase in the goods trade surplus. Travel exports reached about **200%** of 2019 levels, while travel imports were around **97%** of 2019 levels as of November 2025 [39][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Liquidity Management**: The PBOC has been active in liquidity management through open market operations (OMO) and repo transactions, with net liquidity injections noted in December [76][81]. 2. **Bond Issuance Trends**: Net issuance of central government bonds was approximately **RMB 335 billion** in December 2025, with local government bond issuance also showing significant activity [85][88]. 3. **Foreign Investor Activity**: Foreign investors continued to sell negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) in November, indicating a cautious stance towards the Chinese bond market [116]. 4. **Market Expectations**: Rising market expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut around the Lunar New Year holiday suggest a proactive approach to stimulate credit extension to major projects [5][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, policy strategies, and market dynamics relevant to the China FX and rates markets.

Market Overview - The stock market opened strong, returning to 4000 points, while the bond market showed signs of stress with rising yields [6][7] - The central bank conducted a 135 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan due to 4823 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [4][6] Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8615%, reflecting a significant upward trend [6][7] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.26% and DR007 at approximately 1.43% [4][6] Redemption Regulations - New redemption regulations were officially released, easing previous restrictions for individuals to 7 days and institutions to 30 days, which is a notable change from the draft [6][7] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The trading volume for various repo codes showed significant activity, with RO01 at 65977.61 million yuan and R007 at 7306.10 million yuan, indicating a robust trading environment despite the bond market's challenges [5][6]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.14% [1] - December E-mini S&P futures are up +0.11%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures are up +0.10% [1] Economic Indicators - The October JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose by +12,000 to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected decline to 7.117 million [3] - The September leading indicators fell by -0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a -25 basis point cut in the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75% following the FOMC meeting [4] - There is a 90% chance of another -25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting [5] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 495 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [5] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above the expected +7.2% year-over-year [5] Upcoming Reports - The Q3 employment cost index is expected to increase by +0.9% [4] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are projected to rise by +29,000 to 220,000 [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity markets and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting - The current environment is characterized by a resilient risk appetite despite headwinds from interest rates Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: US equity markets closed higher last week, supported by dovish expectations from the Fed. The Risk Appetite Indicator reached 0.66, marking the largest two-week increase since May [1][7] 2. **Mixed Macro Data**: - ISM manufacturing index fell for the ninth consecutive month - ADP reported the largest one-month drop in employment since March 2023 - ISM services index showed improvement - Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.83% year-over-year - Initial jobless claims decreased to 191k, below expectations [1] 3. **Upcoming Economic Reports**: Key data releases include the JOLTS report and the employment cost index, with expectations of 7,100k and a 0.8% increase respectively [1] 4. **Volatility in Q4**: Following a 'Goldilocks' backdrop of growth optimism and dovish Fed expectations, markets have experienced increased volatility in Q4, particularly in tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq [2] 5. **Bond Yields**: There has been upward pressure on bond yields, especially in Japan and Germany, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching 3.4%, a rise of approximately 110 basis points year-to-date [2][9] 6. **Central Bank Divergence**: The dispersion in G10 central bank pricing has widened, with more banks now anticipating rate hikes in 2026 [2][13] 7. **Investment Strategy**: The company maintains a modestly pro-risk stance into 2026, favoring equities over bonds, commodities, and cash, while underweighting credit [3][6] 8. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market is pricing in a 55% probability of more than two rate cuts in the next 12 months [6][17] Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: Growth-sensitive segments, particularly cyclicals and the Russell 2000, have shown strong performance recently [2][15] - **Global Economic Sentiment**: The sentiment indicators suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook among investors, with a notable focus on diversification and hedging strategies [3][27] - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: The report includes specific asset allocation recommendations, indicating overweight positions in equities and underweight in corporate bonds [20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US equity markets, macroeconomic indicators, and strategic investment insights.

Market Trends - Foreign investors are entering Japan's government bond market [1] - This exposes the world's second-largest sovereign debt pool to volatility [1] Potential Risks - Volatility can be triggered by traders from thousands of miles away [1]

Bond traders in India are positioning for the central bank to resume buying government debt in the coming months, a decision they say will spur gains as the current easing cycle approaches its end. https://t.co/8upfhI8Yxh ...