The US market for sustainable bonds is being crowded by foreign companies this year more than ever https://t.co/EP9amef9Gr ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a detailed forecast for various asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and a mixed sentiment for fixed income and commodities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant declines in equity indices, with the S&P 500 expected to drop by 20.7% in a bear scenario, while the MSCI Europe is projected to decline by 22.3% [2]. - The report notes that the AAII survey for Net Bulls has reached a six-month high, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. - US Quality metrics have fallen to their lowest levels since 2001, suggesting deteriorating market conditions [6][9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from 4,900 to 7,200, with a base case return of 4.7% [2]. - MSCI Europe shows a similar trend with a forecast range of 1,610 to 2,620 and a base case return of 7.3% [2]. - Topix is projected to decline by 23.3% in a bear scenario, with a base case return of 5.0% [2]. Fixed Income - UST 10-year yields are forecasted to range from 2.85% to 4.35%, with a base case return of 12.1% [2]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit is expected to yield excess returns of -0.1% in a bear scenario [2]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is projected to have a bear case return of -23.6%, with a base case return of -8.3% [2]. - Gold is expected to decline by 20.6% in a bear scenario, with a base case return of -6.5% [2]. Market Sentiment - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflects a negative sentiment shift, with various indicators showing increased volatility and negative positioning [55][62]. - The report indicates a significant divergence in positioning among asset managers, hedge funds, and dealers across different markets [62]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The report notes that cross-asset correlations have increased, with equities showing a correlation of 71% and credit at 82% [73]. - The correlation between equity and rates is notably negative at -7%, indicating a potential decoupling of these asset classes [73].

Money is quite literally flowing into the MUN bond market, according to our next guest, who says there's an outstanding $300 billion in revenue in water and sewer bonds across the country. And as more infrastructure becomes necessary, those bonds are quickly becoming perhaps one of the best MUN plays out there. Who else brings you this kind of content.Dan Close is head of munis at New. So just kind of walk it back for us again knowing MUN's had kind of a choppy start to the year. people might be going, okay ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the convertible bond market is experiencing a bull market driven by policy support, supply-demand imbalance, and capital allocation needs, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high since June 2015 [1] - Since September 24, 2024, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has accumulated over a 20% increase, entering a technical bull market phase [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is a key driver of the bull market, with the market's outstanding scale shrinking from over 870 billion yuan at the beginning of 2024 to below 680 billion yuan currently [1] Group 2 - The median conversion premium rate in the convertible bond market is close to 30%, with some bonds exceeding 100%, indicating a high valuation state driven by supply-demand imbalance and capital [2] - Investors may not continue to allocate convertible bonds at high premiums if the equity market is extremely weak, as both conversion and holding to maturity could lead to losses [2] - The ongoing bull market in convertible bonds raises the risk of forced redemption, as companies often include redemption clauses that can be triggered under certain conditions [2] Group 3 - Overall, the valuation compression space for convertible bonds is limited under the current institutional capital allocation and supply contraction backdrop, while investors need to be cautious of forced redemption risks [3] - It is advisable to select convertible bonds with good credit quality and avoid those with potential rating downgrades [3] - Despite a noticeable decrease in the number of delistings in the convertible bond market this year, caution is still warranted for bonds with weak credit quality [3]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 23 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 2205 亿元，中标量 2205 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2420 亿元逆回购和 1000 亿元国库现金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 资金面整体偏宽，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，但仍位于 1.37% 附近，七天质押式回购利率则上行超 1 个 bp 。 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | ЗУ | | ટેત્ર | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国債 | 1.3550 0.00 | 71 | 1.3725 0.15 | 62 | 1.4000 0.25 | 43 | 1.4820 0.45 | 266 | 1.5700 0.30 | 282 | 1.6400 0.20 | 805 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

Market Overview - The bond market showed consolidation on May 22, with government bond futures mostly stable and interbank bond yields fluctuating within a narrow range of 0.5 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 90 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates continuing to decline [1][5] Yield Movements - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.04% to 119.520, while the 10-year futures rose by 0.01% to 108.815 [2] - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.74%, while the yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.9115% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 11.56 basis points to 4.605% [3] - Japanese bond yields also saw an uptick, with the 10-year yield rising by 6 basis points to 1.575% [3] - Eurozone bond yields increased, with the 10-year French bond yield rising by 4.9 basis points to 3.308% [3] Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank of China issued a 1-year fixed-rate bond with a winning rate of 1.2094%, achieving a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.23 [4] - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5274% and 1.6676%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.21 and 5.03 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 154.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate falling by 4.4 basis points to 1.465% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that while April real estate data showed marginal weakness, the impact of interest rate cuts on bank interest margins is expected to be limited [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan projected that increased government bond supply in Q2 and Q3 will create opportunities for banks to allocate bonds, particularly in local and national bonds [7] - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that the flattening of the deposit curve could provide more room for long-term interest rate declines, potentially leading to a bull steepening of the yield curve [7]

Market Overview and Macro Environment - The report highlights the transformation of China's economic growth model, with consumption becoming the largest driver of economic development. The financial market scale ranks among the top globally, and the interbank bond market is thriving, accounting for 88.0% of the total bond market by the end of 2024. The diversity of investor types and the continuous improvement in trading activity are also noted [1][2]. Reform of Operating Mechanisms - The report emphasizes the market-oriented promotion of the registration system reform, optimizing the registration and issuance management mechanisms. An information disclosure system is being established, and an innovative "regular issuance plan" mechanism is enhancing efficiency. The issuance pricing is being standardized, and self-regulation is being strengthened. Additionally, various investor protection tools are being provided to improve market liquidity [1][2]. Diversification of Product Supply - The interbank bond market offers a rich array of products categorized by issuer type, including government, financial institutions, and corporate credit bonds. The green bond market is developing robustly, with a continuously improving standard system. Bonds themed on sustainable development are rapidly growing, and technology innovation bonds are aiding financing for tech enterprises. Asset securitization is supporting inclusive finance and innovating financing models for private small and micro enterprises [1][2]. Diverse Risk Hedging Tools - The rapid development of the interbank derivatives market includes interest rate, exchange rate, and credit derivatives. The repo market and bond lending market are also being improved, facilitating risk hedging for foreign institutions [2]. Self-Regulation and Market Openness - The trading association is enhancing self-regulation through various means to standardize the market. The level of openness in the bond market is expanding, with the Panda bond market providing financing channels for foreign issuers. Mechanisms are continuously optimized to offer diverse services and a favorable business environment for foreign investors and intermediaries [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects that under the impetus of reforms, China's bond market will have more refined operating mechanisms, a richer product offering, and a higher degree of openness, thereby better serving the real economy and enhancing its influence in the global financial market [2].

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行 4 月 29 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3405 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.50% ，投标量 3405 亿元，中标量 3405 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2205 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 1200 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行超 5 个 bp ，后者因跨月原因上行超 3 个 bp 。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.33% 。 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.76% 附近，较上日变化不大。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | ЗУ | | SY | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国債 | 1 ...

新华财经北京4月28日电 债市周一（4月28日）延续暖势，国债期货主力合约多数上涨，银行间现券收 益率震荡回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放1030亿元，月末前流动性基本无虞，资金利率普遍延续下 行。 机构认为，随着基本面走弱和货币渐趋宽松，收益率后续尚存在向下突破可能。从投资策略来看，中长 端久期仍有保持的机会、长债依然占优，长端收益率有望创新低。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍小幅下行，10年期国开债"25国开05"收益率下行0.5BP至1.709%，10年期 国债"25附息国债04"收益率下行0.85BP至1.649%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.54%，报419.91点，成交金额482.30亿元。其中，普利转债、飞凯转债、华翔 转债、京源转债、银轮转债跌幅居前，分别跌18.13%、10.18%、6.97%、6.92%、5.86%。华医转债、博 瑞转债、易瑞转债、阿拉转债、天源转债涨幅居前，分别涨2.72%、2.39%、1.86%、1.54%、1.43%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间4月25日，美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌5.94BPs报3.7377%，3年 期美债收益率跌7 ...