Cloud Data Management and Cybersecurity
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Buy or Sell Rubrik Stock At $86?
Forbesยท 2025-12-08 12:40
Core Viewpoint - Rubrik Inc. has reported strong Q3 results with record net new subscription ARR and significant free cash flow generation, leading to a stock price increase to over $85 per share, although the current valuation appears high for new investors [2][5][13]. Recent Performance Highlights - RBRK stock has increased following robust Q3 results, with quarterly revenue growth of 51.2% year-over-year, reaching $310 million [8][10]. - The company has achieved a 3-year average revenue growth of 47.7% annually, with the last 12 months showing a revenue surge from $733 million to $1.1 billion [10]. Valuation Analysis - Key valuation metrics indicate a significant premium, with a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 18.9x compared to 3.2x for the S&P 500, and a Price-to-Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) ratio of 112.7x versus 20.5x for the S&P 500 [9]. - These ratios suggest that the market has already priced in high growth expectations, leaving limited room for error and minimal potential upside in the near to mid-term [5][13]. Growth Profile - Rubrik demonstrates strong revenue growth driven by robust market demand for its data security and management platform, particularly in the context of increasing focus on ransomware protection and cloud data resilience [6]. Profitability - Despite strong revenue growth, Rubrik is still in an investment phase, with troubling profitability metrics, but it has positive operating cash flow of $211 million, indicating improving unit economics [7]. Financial Stability - The company has a very strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.6%, cash and equivalents of $1.5 billion, and total debt of $1.1 billion against a market cap of $14 billion [11][12]. - This financial stability provides flexibility to finance operations and growth strategies without immediate liquidity concerns [12]. Investment Thesis Summary - Strengths include exceptional revenue growth momentum, record additions to subscription ARR, a very strong balance sheet, and expanding market opportunities in cyber resilience and data security [16]. - Concerns revolve around extremely high valuation multiples, substantial GAAP losses, and the stock's current price reflecting several years of strong execution [16].