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湾流:股价短期上涨空间有限,但长期增长潜力不变-20250523
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 00:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for BayCurrent, reflecting its long-term growth potential despite limited short-term upside [1][4]. Core Insights - The price target for December 2025 has been raised from ¥8,000 to ¥8,600, indicating a 5% upside as of May 22 [1][10]. - The consulting market is experiencing significant growth, and BayCurrent's recruitment efforts are expected to stabilize project assignments [1][9]. - The company is projected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of at least 40% from FY2026, supported by a new capital policy that includes a dividend payout ratio of 40% and a total return ratio of about 60% [1][6]. Financial Estimates - For FY2025, revenue is forecasted to grow by 25% year-over-year to ¥144.6 billion, with operating profit increasing by 23% to ¥52.3 billion [6][8]. - The three-year compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for sales and operating profit are expected to be around 20%, with consultant headcount growth at 17% [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 53.7% and an EBITDA margin of 36.8% for FY2026 [8][15]. Market Position and Client Trends - BayCurrent's core clients include major companies like Nissan and Honda, which together accounted for approximately 11% of sales in FY2024 [6][9]. - The report notes that concerns regarding investment by Japanese exporters due to potential US tariffs have eased, which may positively impact BayCurrent's business [6][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from synergies with NTT Group, potentially leading to increased sales contributions [6][9].