Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, core earnings per share were reported at $0.02, while the full-year core loss per share was $0.35 [13] - Total expenses for 2025 were $438 million, a decrease of nearly 50% compared to 2023, with Q4 total core operating expenses at $88 million, a 40% improvement year-over-year [24][26] - The adjusted tangible equity ratio stood at 9.1% [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnest achieved its highest-ever refi loan origination volume of $634 million in Q4 2025, bringing full-year refi originations to $2.1 billion, more than doubling from the previous year [8][15] - In-school lending originated $401 million in new loans in 2025, marking a significant increase [9] - Consumer lending segment net income for Q4 was $25 million, down from $37 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower outstanding balances [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The delinquency rate for private loans increased from 2.48% in Q3 to 2.24% in Q4, while 31+ day delinquency rates rose from 6.1% to 6.3% [19] - The total delinquency rate for federal education loans improved slightly from Q3, declining from 18.1% to 17.5% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is targeting total loan originations of $4 billion in 2026, representing a growth of approximately 60% over 2025 [9][26] - A shift towards a holding company management structure is underway, with a focus on reducing central costs and improving operational efficiency [11][12] - The company continues to invest in capabilities at Earnest and aims to leverage existing capital for growth [8][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects for 2026, citing strong momentum in loan origination and improved capital efficiency [12][17] - The macroeconomic environment remains a concern, with management noting a deterioration in the economic outlook impacting delinquency rates [32][69] Other Important Information - The company completed its fourth securitization of the year in Q4 2025, totaling nearly $2.2 billion in term ABS financing [25] - Share repurchases totaled 2.1 million shares at an average price of $12.67, with a total of $41 million returned to shareholders through repurchases and dividends [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What prompted the increase in reserves for the private legacy portfolio? - Management indicated that a comprehensive review of assumptions regarding life of loan cash flows led to adjustments, with a significant portion of the provision related to the macroeconomic scenario and delinquency trends [30][32] Question: What is the outlook for the personal loan product? - The personal loan product is still in a pilot phase, with initial results being encouraging, but it is not expected to impact financials significantly in 2026 [41] Question: What are the macro assumptions underpinning the guidance? - The guidance reflects consensus macroeconomic assumptions for unemployment and interest rates, which will be provided offline [62] Question: What is driving the deterioration in the private legacy portfolio? - Management noted that various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and borrower challenges, have contributed to the higher delinquency rates in the legacy portfolio [68][69]

Key Takeaways AFRM upgraded underwriting by adding real-time bank balances and cash flow signals to credit decisions.The approach is live for card users and opt-in banking links, helping thin credit profiles.AFRM says the richer view can lift purchasing power and credit quality.Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) recently upgraded how it evaluates credit risk by embedding richer real-time financial signals into its underwriting process, like up-to-the-minute bank account balances and cash flow trends. Instead of r ...

Core Viewpoint - Medallion Financial Corp. will participate in the Sidoti Conference on January 21-22, 2026, providing opportunities for one-on-one meetings with investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is a specialty finance company that originates and services a diverse portfolio of consumer and mezzanine loans across various industries, including recreation and home improvement [3]. - The company offers loan products and services through fintech strategic partners, with key industries served including towable RVs, marine, replacement roofs, swimming pools, and windows [3]. - Medallion Financial Corp. is headquartered in New York City, NY, with its largest subsidiary, Medallion Bank, located in Salt Lake City, Utah [3].

Core Insights - Both retail and institutional investors are optimistic about fintech stocks in 2026, while interest in crypto stocks is declining [1][2] - The survey by Mizuho indicates a bullish sentiment towards fintech, with retail investors showing a 3.1x attractiveness ratio and institutional investors a 2.7x ratio compared to 2025 [3] Fintech Sector - Investors are particularly excited about the consumer lending space, highlighting companies like SoFi Technologies, Affirm Holdings, and Upstart [4] - Retail investors show enthusiasm for payment and checkout stocks such as PayPal, while institutional investors prefer payment networks like Visa and Mastercard [4] Crypto Sector - There is a bearish sentiment among institutional investors regarding crypto treasury companies, with notable declines in stock prices, such as a 50% drop for Strategy [5] - Both retail and institutional investors are uncertain about the future of crypto in 2026, with 53% of retail and 58% of institutional investors expecting an improvement over 2025, but lacking a clear direction [6] - Retail investors have mixed feelings about crypto/retail exchanges, ranking them as both the best (19%) and worst (16%) sectors [7]

Core Insights - The fintech sector is undergoing significant transformation driven by innovations in digital payments, credit underwriting, and user experience, with Block, Inc. and Upstart Holdings emerging as key players due to their disruptive business models and strategic growth initiatives [2][3]. Block's Case - Block is developing a comprehensive fintech platform through its Square, Cash App, and Afterpay ecosystems, providing end-to-end solutions across various financial services [4]. - In Q3 2025, Block's net revenues increased by 2.3% year-over-year, with gross profit rising by 18.3%, driven by Cash App's growth of 24.3% and Square's increase of 9.2% [4][9]. - New product introductions, such as Cash App Pools and enhancements to Square's AI assistant, are aimed at deepening user engagement and expanding service offerings [5]. - Block is aggressively investing in partnerships to enhance its market position, including collaborations with Thrive and Blackbird Bakery to improve service delivery [6]. - Despite its growth, Block faces challenges from shifts in consumer spending and increasing competition from peers like PayPal and Shopify [7]. Upstart's Case - Upstart operates as an AI-driven lending marketplace, connecting consumers with over 100 banks and credit unions, and reported a 71% revenue increase year-over-year in Q3 2025, with loan originations climbing by 80% [8][9]. - The company has diversified its offerings beyond personal loans into auto lending, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, which accounted for nearly 12% of total originations in Q3 2025 [10]. - Upstart's AI automation powered 91% of loans in Q3 2025, enhancing scalability and reducing approval times [12]. - The company continues to expand its lending partnerships, aiming to increase its market reach [11]. - However, Upstart's reliance on AI-driven models poses risks, particularly in economic downturns, though management has initiated upgrades to mitigate volatility [13]. Comparative Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Block's 2025 sales implies a modest growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 28.2% [14]. - In contrast, Upstart's 2025 sales are projected to grow by 62.8%, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [16][17]. Valuation and Performance - Over the past month, Block and Upstart shares have increased by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 [19]. - Block is trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.48X, while Upstart's P/S ratio stands at 3.64X, both below their one-year medians [19]. Conclusion - Block has a strong payments ecosystem but faces short-term challenges from consumer spending and competition, while Upstart shows clearer operating leverage and growth potential through AI-driven innovations [21].

Core Insights - Americans' credit card balances are projected to increase by the smallest annual amount since 2013, with a forecasted growth of 2.3% in 2026, reaching $1.18 trillion [1] - The growth in credit card balances has cooled significantly from the spikes of 18.5% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2023, indicating a shift in consumer spending behavior [1] - Lenders have become more cautious in extending credit access following a surge in post-pandemic spending, leading to a stabilization of delinquencies [2][4] Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices and a challenging economic outlook, consumers are showing resilience, with household balance sheets appearing "broadly solid" [6] - The K-shaped economy is evident, where higher-income individuals are thriving while those with lower incomes and credit scores are struggling, resulting in a shrinking middle class [5] Delinquency Trends - Delinquencies for auto loans are expected to grow slightly for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, but at a slower rate compared to previous years [5] - Personal loan delinquencies may also see a slight increase next year, but not as dramatically as the surge observed in 2022 [5]

Market Performance - Market experienced a 5% pullback but has resettled [3] - Market is within 30 points of 6,900 [3] - VIX has a 15 handle [4] Sector Rotation - Benign rotational action occurred, with semis and Alphabet cooling off, while Meta stepped in [4] - Retail stocks are moving, indicating a reflation trade [5] - Banks are leading, and consumer lending companies are making new highs in share prices [5] Investment Themes - Market is positioning for a cyclical reacceleration [5] Business Activities - Brad Jacobs, author of "How to Make a Few More Billion Dollar," celebrated his book launch [1] - Brad Jacobs has done more than 500 acquisitions [2] - Mckenley Acquisition Corp did the honors [3]

Core Insights - Hardship loan activity is an early indicator of consumer financial stress, driven by increased borrowing from those with weaker credit profiles to cover unexpected expenses [2][4] - The lending landscape is sensitive to fluctuations in consumer demand, with many stakeholders adjusting risk-management strategies to ensure asset quality [3][5] Industry Overview - The demand for hardship loans is rising as households face budget pressures and restricted access to traditional credit, indicating a shift in the outlook for lenders like OneMain Holdings and Enova International [11][24] - The tightening of traditional credit channels has led to increased applications for hardship loans, as borrowers seek alternative financing options [4][7] Company Performance: OneMain Holdings - OneMain Holdings reported third-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion, a 9% increase, driven by higher portfolio yield, with adjusted EPS rising by 51% to $1.90 [12] - The total managed receivables base increased by 6% year-over-year to $25.9 billion, supported by $3.9 billion in new consumer-loan originations [13] - The net charge-off ratio for consumer loans fell to 6.67%, indicating improved credit performance and operational efficiency [13] Company Performance: Enova International - Enova International's third-quarter revenue rose by 16% year-over-year to $803 million, with adjusted EPS increasing by 37% to $3.36 [15] - Total originations reached $2.0 billion, reflecting consistent demand, while the receivables base grew by 20% year-over-year to $4.5 billion [16] - Enova's valuation metrics indicate a trailing Price-to-Earnings multiple around 12x, suggesting a focused approach on risk-adjusted yield [17] Market Outlook - The demand for hardship loans signals rising consumer stress, with OneMain Holdings and Enova International positioned to respond to borrower behavior and liquidity needs [24] - The addressable market for non-prime lenders remains unsaturated, providing opportunities for growth despite current challenges [25][23]

X Financial Digital Lending Marketplace Disclaimer | | Certain statements in this presentation, and other statements that the Company may m | | --- | --- | | | forward-lookingstatements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and | | | 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements reflect the | | | intent, beliefs or current expectations about the future. These statements can be recogn | | s or | use of words such as "expects," "plans," "will," "estimates," "projec ...

Core Insights - Figure, a blockchain-based consumer lending platform, has gained attention following billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's significant investment in the company [1][2][3] Company Overview - Figure operates a marketplace for tokenized consumer loan origination, utilizing blockchain technology to enhance the efficiency of loan packaging, verification, and settlement compared to traditional lenders [1] - The company went public in September 2025, positioning itself as the first large-scale consumer lending platform built on blockchain infrastructure [2][4] Investment Highlights - Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office acquired a stake worth $76.9 million in Figure, marking one of the largest early institutional investments in a blockchain-native consumer lending company [2][3] - Figure's IPO raised $663 million through the issuance of 23.5 million Class A shares and an additional 8 million shares sold by existing holders [7] Financial Performance - In its first quarterly results as a public company, Figure reported: - Revenue of $156.4 million, representing a 55% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $119.5 million [8] - Adjusted EBITDA of $86.4 million, yielding a 55.4% margin [8] - Net income growth of 227% year-over-year [8] - A significant increase in exchange revenue, with ecosystem and technology fees rising nearly fivefold to $35.7 million [8] - A 70% growth in consumer loan marketplace volume, reaching $2.47 billion in Q3 [8]