Core Insights - Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. has experienced a cybersecurity incident affecting customer personal information [1][2] - Lynch Carpenter, LLP is investigating claims related to the data breach at Figure [1] Company Overview - Figure is a financial technology company that offers consumer loans, including home equity loans [1] - The company has faced unauthorized access to its systems, potentially compromising personally identifiable information (PII) such as names, dates of birth, addresses, and phone numbers [2][4] Legal Implications - Lynch Carpenter, LLP is a national class action law firm with a focus on data privacy matters and has represented millions of clients over the past decade [3] - Individuals whose information may have been impacted are encouraged to seek legal counsel for potential compensation [2]

Core Insights - The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) is expected to clarify the accounting treatment of stablecoins, potentially classifying them as cash or cash equivalents instead of intangible assets [2][4] - Macrina Kgil, a seasoned CFO, emphasizes the need for consistent accounting standards for stablecoins, reflecting her frustrations with current ambiguities [3][4] - Figure Technology Solutions, where Kgil is currently CFO, has a market value of approximately $8.7 billion and focuses on consumer loans, particularly home equity loans [5][6] Company Overview - Figure Technology Solutions was founded in 2018 and aims to create a marketplace for consumer loans, utilizing blockchain technology to enhance transparency and speed in loan processing [6] - The company has developed an interest-bearing transferable stablecoin named $YLDS, which is registered with the SEC, indicating its commitment to regulatory compliance [4] - Figure's home equity loans can be closed in as little as five days, significantly faster than the industry average of 45 days, showcasing the efficiency brought by blockchain technology [6] Industry Context - The potential reclassification of stablecoins by FASB could have significant implications for the accounting practices within the financial services industry, particularly for companies dealing with digital assets [2][4] - The ongoing evolution of accounting standards for digital currencies reflects the broader trend of integrating blockchain technology into traditional financial systems [3][4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved GAAP net income of $34 million and operating cash flow of $80 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of $238 million in the previous year [5][30] - For the full year 2025, revenues reached $1.3 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $371 million, up 76% year-over-year, and GAAP net income of $81 million, an improvement of $483 million compared to 2024 [5][23][30] - The fourth quarter revenue was $335 million, with a 29% adjusted EBITDA margin, and FRLPC (Fee Revenue Less Production Costs) was $131 million, up 12% year-over-year [24][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal loans accounted for approximately 65% of total network volume, growing 10% year-over-year, while auto and point-of-sale (POS) represented 19% and 16% of quarterly network volume, respectively [24] - The company reported a total network volume of $2.7 billion for Q4, up 3% year-over-year, with full-year network volume at $10.5 billion, up 9% [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has diversified its funding sources, creating almost $3 billion of revolving capacity through ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) structures across personal loans and point-of-sale [12][33] - The capital markets environment remains supportive, with strong demand from insurance funds and traditional asset managers, despite increased volatility in private credit [19][55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainable, profitable growth, emphasizing prudent risk management over short-term gains, and aims to build a B2B2C platform that integrates into the U.S. financial ecosystem [6][13][14] - Future growth is expected to come from deepening existing partner relationships and onboarding new partners, with a robust pipeline of new partnerships [9][10][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while consumer performance remains strong, there is increased uncertainty in the market, prompting a cautious approach to credit exposure [6][19][60] - The guidance for 2026 reflects a cautious outlook, with expected GAAP net income ranging from $100 million to $150 million, and a focus on maintaining profitability while managing risk [39][46] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in data and risk infrastructure, enhancing its ability to manage credit risk effectively [21][22] - The fourth quarter saw proactive steps taken to reduce exposure to higher-risk segments, which impacted network volumes but did not affect profitability targets [20][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the decision to move away from variable outcomes? - Management emphasized the importance of prudent risk management over short-term growth, highlighting the ability to proactively manage risk based on data from multiple lenders [39][40] Question: How is the funding environment affecting your outlook for 2026? - The company noted strong demand for its products and a more disciplined private credit market, which is beneficial for its funding strategy [55] Question: What specific actions were taken to pull back on credit exposure? - The company indicated that the pullback was across the entire portfolio, with a focus on personal and auto loans due to the growth seen in POS [63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, core earnings per share were reported at $0.02, while the full-year core loss per share was $0.35 [13] - Total expenses for 2025 were $438 million, a decrease of nearly 50% compared to 2023, with Q4 total core operating expenses at $88 million, a 40% improvement year-over-year [24][26] - The adjusted tangible equity ratio stood at 9.1% [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnest achieved its highest-ever refi loan origination volume of $634 million in Q4 2025, bringing full-year refi originations to $2.1 billion, more than doubling from the previous year [8][15] - In-school lending originated $401 million in new loans in 2025, marking a significant increase [9] - Consumer lending segment net income for Q4 was $25 million, down from $37 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower outstanding balances [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The delinquency rate for private loans increased from 2.48% in Q3 to 2.24% in Q4, while 31+ day delinquency rates rose from 6.1% to 6.3% [19] - The total delinquency rate for federal education loans improved slightly from Q3, declining from 18.1% to 17.5% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is targeting total loan originations of $4 billion in 2026, representing a growth of approximately 60% over 2025 [9][26] - A shift towards a holding company management structure is underway, with a focus on reducing central costs and improving operational efficiency [11][12] - The company continues to invest in capabilities at Earnest and aims to leverage existing capital for growth [8][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects for 2026, citing strong momentum in loan origination and improved capital efficiency [12][17] - The macroeconomic environment remains a concern, with management noting a deterioration in the economic outlook impacting delinquency rates [32][69] Other Important Information - The company completed its fourth securitization of the year in Q4 2025, totaling nearly $2.2 billion in term ABS financing [25] - Share repurchases totaled 2.1 million shares at an average price of $12.67, with a total of $41 million returned to shareholders through repurchases and dividends [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What prompted the increase in reserves for the private legacy portfolio? - Management indicated that a comprehensive review of assumptions regarding life of loan cash flows led to adjustments, with a significant portion of the provision related to the macroeconomic scenario and delinquency trends [30][32] Question: What is the outlook for the personal loan product? - The personal loan product is still in a pilot phase, with initial results being encouraging, but it is not expected to impact financials significantly in 2026 [41] Question: What are the macro assumptions underpinning the guidance? - The guidance reflects consensus macroeconomic assumptions for unemployment and interest rates, which will be provided offline [62] Question: What is driving the deterioration in the private legacy portfolio? - Management noted that various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and borrower challenges, have contributed to the higher delinquency rates in the legacy portfolio [68][69]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has upgraded its credit risk evaluation by incorporating real-time financial signals into its underwriting process, enhancing the accuracy of credit assessments [1][9] - The new method is currently available for Affirm Card users and will soon be accessible to a broader audience who opt to link their banking data [2] - This approach allows Affirm to assess creditworthiness based on current financial health rather than outdated credit histories, potentially increasing consumer purchasing power [4] Group 1: Affirm's New Underwriting Process - Affirm's upgraded underwriting now includes real-time bank account balances and cash flow trends, moving away from static credit reports [1][9] - The new system aligns credit decisions with real-life financial situations, improving risk assessment and promoting responsible lending [3] - Early results indicate that this richer view of consumer finances can significantly enhance purchasing power [4] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - The upgrade is expected to improve Affirm's credit quality by reducing default risk and expanding its consumer base, leading to increased approvals and revenue growth [5] - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Value rose 42% year over year in Q1 of fiscal 2026, reaching $10.8 billion [5] - Affirm's shares have increased by 25.2% over the past year, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal and Block, Inc. are also expanding their BNPL services, with PayPal's total payment volume increasing by 8% to $458.1 billion and Block's BNPL gross merchandise volume climbing 17% to $9.7 billion [6] - The competition in the digital consumer lending space is intensifying, highlighting the need for innovative approaches like Affirm's [6] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Affirm's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 55.42X, significantly higher than the industry average of 31.72X, indicating a premium valuation [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 560% surge in Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings year over year, followed by a 56.8% increase in the subsequent year [11]

Core Viewpoint - Medallion Financial Corp. will participate in the Sidoti Conference on January 21-22, 2026, providing opportunities for one-on-one meetings with investors [1][2]. Company Overview - Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: MFIN) is a specialty finance company that originates and services a diverse portfolio of consumer and mezzanine loans across various industries, including recreation and home improvement [3]. - The company offers loan products and services through fintech strategic partners, with key industries served including towable RVs, marine, replacement roofs, swimming pools, and windows [3]. - Medallion Financial Corp. is headquartered in New York City, NY, with its largest subsidiary, Medallion Bank, located in Salt Lake City, Utah [3].

Core Insights - Both retail and institutional investors are optimistic about fintech stocks in 2026, while interest in crypto stocks is declining [1][2] - The survey by Mizuho indicates a bullish sentiment towards fintech, with retail investors showing a 3.1x attractiveness ratio and institutional investors a 2.7x ratio compared to 2025 [3] Fintech Sector - Investors are particularly excited about the consumer lending space, highlighting companies like SoFi Technologies, Affirm Holdings, and Upstart [4] - Retail investors show enthusiasm for payment and checkout stocks such as PayPal, while institutional investors prefer payment networks like Visa and Mastercard [4] Crypto Sector - There is a bearish sentiment among institutional investors regarding crypto treasury companies, with notable declines in stock prices, such as a 50% drop for Strategy [5] - Both retail and institutional investors are uncertain about the future of crypto in 2026, with 53% of retail and 58% of institutional investors expecting an improvement over 2025, but lacking a clear direction [6] - Retail investors have mixed feelings about crypto/retail exchanges, ranking them as both the best (19%) and worst (16%) sectors [7]

Core Insights - The fintech sector is undergoing significant transformation driven by innovations in digital payments, credit underwriting, and user experience, with Block, Inc. and Upstart Holdings emerging as key players due to their disruptive business models and strategic growth initiatives [2][3]. Block's Case - Block is developing a comprehensive fintech platform through its Square, Cash App, and Afterpay ecosystems, providing end-to-end solutions across various financial services [4]. - In Q3 2025, Block's net revenues increased by 2.3% year-over-year, with gross profit rising by 18.3%, driven by Cash App's growth of 24.3% and Square's increase of 9.2% [4][9]. - New product introductions, such as Cash App Pools and enhancements to Square's AI assistant, are aimed at deepening user engagement and expanding service offerings [5]. - Block is aggressively investing in partnerships to enhance its market position, including collaborations with Thrive and Blackbird Bakery to improve service delivery [6]. - Despite its growth, Block faces challenges from shifts in consumer spending and increasing competition from peers like PayPal and Shopify [7]. Upstart's Case - Upstart operates as an AI-driven lending marketplace, connecting consumers with over 100 banks and credit unions, and reported a 71% revenue increase year-over-year in Q3 2025, with loan originations climbing by 80% [8][9]. - The company has diversified its offerings beyond personal loans into auto lending, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, which accounted for nearly 12% of total originations in Q3 2025 [10]. - Upstart's AI automation powered 91% of loans in Q3 2025, enhancing scalability and reducing approval times [12]. - The company continues to expand its lending partnerships, aiming to increase its market reach [11]. - However, Upstart's reliance on AI-driven models poses risks, particularly in economic downturns, though management has initiated upgrades to mitigate volatility [13]. Comparative Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Block's 2025 sales implies a modest growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 28.2% [14]. - In contrast, Upstart's 2025 sales are projected to grow by 62.8%, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [16][17]. Valuation and Performance - Over the past month, Block and Upstart shares have increased by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 [19]. - Block is trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.48X, while Upstart's P/S ratio stands at 3.64X, both below their one-year medians [19]. Conclusion - Block has a strong payments ecosystem but faces short-term challenges from consumer spending and competition, while Upstart shows clearer operating leverage and growth potential through AI-driven innovations [21].

Core Insights - Americans' credit card balances are projected to increase by the smallest annual amount since 2013, with a forecasted growth of 2.3% in 2026, reaching $1.18 trillion [1] - The growth in credit card balances has cooled significantly from the spikes of 18.5% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2023, indicating a shift in consumer spending behavior [1] - Lenders have become more cautious in extending credit access following a surge in post-pandemic spending, leading to a stabilization of delinquencies [2][4] Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices and a challenging economic outlook, consumers are showing resilience, with household balance sheets appearing "broadly solid" [6] - The K-shaped economy is evident, where higher-income individuals are thriving while those with lower incomes and credit scores are struggling, resulting in a shrinking middle class [5] Delinquency Trends - Delinquencies for auto loans are expected to grow slightly for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, but at a slower rate compared to previous years [5] - Personal loan delinquencies may also see a slight increase next year, but not as dramatically as the surge observed in 2022 [5]

Market Performance - Market experienced a 5% pullback but has resettled [3] - Market is within 30 points of 6,900 [3] - VIX has a 15 handle [4] Sector Rotation - Benign rotational action occurred, with semis and Alphabet cooling off, while Meta stepped in [4] - Retail stocks are moving, indicating a reflation trade [5] - Banks are leading, and consumer lending companies are making new highs in share prices [5] Investment Themes - Market is positioning for a cyclical reacceleration [5] Business Activities - Brad Jacobs, author of "How to Make a Few More Billion Dollar," celebrated his book launch [1] - Brad Jacobs has done more than 500 acquisitions [2] - Mckenley Acquisition Corp did the honors [3]