Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction market which brought attention to that entire segment of the industry last year, is preparing to formally relaunch in the U.S. as soon as November, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. Trading would begin with limited user access and a focus initially on sports-related markets. Polymarket officially shut off U.S. access in 2022 after settling  charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which fined the company $1.4 million for running an unregistered deriv ...

Kent Nishimura / Bloomberg via Getty Images Polymarket, which is partnering with New York Stock Exchange owner ICE, was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. KEY TAKEAWAYS New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange said it is investing up to $2 billion in Polymarket in a deal valuing the crypto-based prediction marketplace at around $8 billion. ICE said it will distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data and will partner with the prediction market on tokenization initiatives. New York Stock E ...

Core Insights - The paper argues that BTC settlement in prediction markets could provide superior economics for users compared to stablecoin-denominated markets [1][2] - It critiques the current trend of using stablecoins, highlighting the opportunity cost for Bitcoin holders who miss out on potential BTC appreciation [2][3] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - Most on-chain prediction markets use stablecoins to avoid volatility, which forces Bitcoin holders to convert their assets, leading to opportunity costs [2][3] - The author suggests treating BTC as a deflationary settlement asset, similar to gold, to allow users to benefit from long-term appreciation [3] Group 2: Liquidity Bootstrapping Strategies - The paper explores three methods to bootstrap liquidity in BTC-based markets: cross-market making, DeFi redirection of trades, and automated market makers (AMMs) [3] - Each method is analyzed for its risk profiles, including exchange-rate swings and slippage, which impact users and liquidity providers [3] Group 3: Practical Applications of BTC Settlement - BTC settlement could be particularly beneficial for long-dated political events, allowing Bitcoin holders to maintain exposure while participating in prediction markets [4] - Crypto-native communities may prefer BTC settlement as it aligns with their belief in crypto as a value storage, avoiding the need to convert to stablecoins [4] - In regions with unstable fiat or regulatory issues surrounding stablecoins, BTC-settled markets could serve as a more reliable settlement asset [4] - Events with small payoff windows or during volatile periods may also benefit from BTC denomination, making it more relevant [4]

Core Insights - A new academic paper reveals that there is a consistent presence of "free money" on Polymarket, with traders capitalizing on mispriced markets [1] - The study analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025, identifying thousands of instances of market price discrepancies [1][5] Market Inefficiencies - In certain markets, the prices of "Yes" and "No" shares did not sum to one dollar, creating risk-free profit opportunities for quick traders [2] - More subtle mispricing was observed in logically related markets, allowing savvy traders to lock in profits regardless of outcomes [3] Profit Potential - Researchers estimate that over $40 million in profits have been extracted from the system by arbitrageurs, indicating a viable business model [4] - The study identified more than 7,000 markets with measurable mispricing, highlighting the prevalence of these opportunities [5] Broader Implications - The findings raise questions about whether these inefficiencies are unique to Polymarket or indicative of prediction markets as a whole [5] - Continuous peer-to-peer trading platforms, whether on crypto or regulated venues, are subject to similar structural inefficiencies [6] Market Dynamics - In traditional finance, inefficiencies are quickly arbitraged away by algorithmic market-makers, a trend now seen in prediction markets as well [7] - Sophisticated traders, often using bots, monitor multiple markets to exploit inconsistencies, which helps realign prices after they take their profits [7]

Core Insights - Chainlink's price reached approximately $25 on September 13, marking a 15% increase over the week, driven by Polymarket's adoption of Chainlink's data feeds for price-related wagers [1] - The integration allows for secure, real-time prediction markets across numerous crypto trading pairs, reducing reliance on social voting and mitigating resolution risks [2] - Sergey Nazarov, Co-Founder of Chainlink, emphasized that the integration enhances the reliability of prediction markets by utilizing high-quality data and tamper-proof computation [3] Integration and Market Impact - The partnership enables low-latency, verifiable price reports and automated on-chain settlement, providing Polymarket with near-instantaneous resolution capabilities for deterministic outcomes like Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions [4] - Chainlink's open interest in derivatives is reported at $1.7 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.02% intraday, while trading volumes increased by 7.3%, indicating speculative activity focused on trimming LINK futures positions [5] Technical Analysis - The daily price chart for Chainlink shows a 15.9% rally over six sessions, bouncing from a support level of $22 to peaks around $25, with a Golden Cross signal formed at $24 [6] - A decisive close above $25 could target the next resistance level near $28, while failure to maintain above $24 may lead to a retest of the $23.30 support area, with further breakdown potentially targeting $20 [7]