Core Viewpoint - Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has seen its stock value decline by 62% since its peak last June, primarily due to falling Bitcoin prices and investor concerns about its financial structure [2][9]. Company Overview - Strategy went public in June 1998 at $10 per share, reaching a peak of approximately $320 before experiencing significant declines due to the dot-com bubble and accounting issues [3]. - The company rebranded to Strategy last year, focusing on Bitcoin development and holding about 3.2% of the total Bitcoin supply, equating to over 672,000 BTC [4]. Financial Performance - The value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings surged from $1.9 billion in March 2021 to $23.9 billion by the end of 2024 [4]. - In the first half of 2025, $8.1 billion of the company's earnings were attributed to Bitcoin price appreciation, but the value of its Bitcoin holdings dropped by $17 billion in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Debt and Liabilities - The company has significant financial obligations, owing $21 billion to lenders and preferred shareholders, with over $844 million due to investors in the next year [6]. - The stock's decline reflects a loss of premium over its Bitcoin holdings, with the multiplier-to-net asset value decreasing from over 2.4 in late 2024 to around 1.1 in January 2026 [6]. Market Sentiment and Stock Valuation - The stock's performance is closely tied to Bitcoin's price movements, with analysts suggesting a potential upside of 153% if Bitcoin appreciates [8]. - Investor fear has led to a significant drop in the company's net asset value multiplier, contributing to the stock's decline [14]. Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for Strategy's stock are outlined: - Status Quo: If Bitcoin remains between $85,000 and $100,000, the stock could trade between $150 and $250 [15]. - Optimistic: If Bitcoin rises to between $100,000 and $150,000, price targets could reach between $450 and $474 [15]. - Pessimistic: If Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the stock could drop below $100 due to financial constraints [15].