APi Group (NYSE:APG) Conference December 02, 2025 11:20 AM ET Company ParticipantsDavid Jackola - CFOAdam Fee - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsJosh Chen - Business Services AnalystOperatorReady to go.Josh ChenAll right. I think we're live. Good morning, everybody. I'm Josh Chen, Business Services Analyst here at UBS. We're pleased today to have the APi Group join us. They inspect, service, and install building systems such as fire, security, elevators, and HVAC. They also provide infr ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported revenues for Q3 2025 were $2.1 billion, a 14.2% increase compared to $1.83 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of approximately 10% [14] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.5%, representing a 50 basis point increase compared to the prior year [14] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% for Q3 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, a 10 basis point increase year-over-year [14] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.41, a 20.6% increase compared to the prior year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Safety Services segment reported revenues of $1.4 billion, a 15.4% increase compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with organic growth of 8.7% [15] - Specialty Services segment reported organic revenues of $683 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to $612 million in the prior year [16] - Adjusted gross margin for Safety Services was 37.3%, an 80 basis point increase, while Specialty Services had a gross margin of 19.3%, a 60 basis point decrease [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American safety business continued to show double-digit inspection revenue growth, contributing to the overall strong performance in the Safety Services segment [15] - The company is experiencing robust activity in various sectors, including data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, aviation, and healthcare, which are driving growth [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $10 billion in net revenues by 2028, with consistent mid-single-digit organic growth and a target of 16% plus adjusted EBITDA margin [8] - Investments in technology, including AI and market-leading systems, are intended to empower field leaders and improve operational efficiency [6][8] - The company is focused on disciplined customer and project selection, pricing, and selective business pruning to enhance margins and growth [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the strategy and deliver on 2025 targets, citing strong momentum in inspection, service, and monitoring business [12][23] - The company anticipates continued strong free cash flow generation and a robust pipeline for M&A activity, with a focus on North America [11][12] - Management acknowledged the challenges of balancing growth with margin expansion but remains optimistic about achieving long-term margin goals [48][49] Other Important Information - The company completed four bolt-on acquisitions in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 11, with plans to deploy approximately $250 million in M&A at attractive multiples [11][12] - The adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $248 million, representing a conversion rate of 88% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the organic growth in Safety Services? - Management noted robust activity in the data center space and other sectors, with data centers expected to account for 9-10% of total revenue [28][29] Question: How is the M&A pipeline progressing? - Management stated they are on track with M&A activity, focusing on North America, particularly in fire protection and electronic security [31][32] Question: What is the current status of the elevator and escalator segment? - The elevator business is experiencing high single-digit organic growth, with positive cross-selling opportunities developing [74] Question: How do you balance growth with margin expansion? - Management emphasized the importance of project size and complexity in driving margins, indicating a focus on maintaining a balance between growth and profitability [48][49] Question: What is the expected contribution from M&A to revenue next year? - Management indicated that approximately $1 of purchase price translates to about $1 in revenue over a 12-month period, with expectations for accretive contributions from acquisitions [81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported revenues for Q3 2025 were $2.1 billion, a 14.2% increase compared to $1.83 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of approximately 10% [13] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.5%, representing a 50 basis point increase compared to the prior year period [13] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% for Q3 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, a 10 basis point increase compared to the prior year [13] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.41, a 20.6% increase compared to the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Safety Services segment, revenues for Q3 2025 were $1.4 billion, a 15.4% increase compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with organic growth of 8.7% [15] - Adjusted gross margin for Safety Services was 37.3%, an 80 basis point increase compared to the prior year [16] - Specialty Services reported organic revenues of $683 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to $612 million in the prior year [16] - Adjusted gross margin for Specialty Services was 19.3%, a 60 basis point decrease compared to the prior year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth in inspection, service, and monitoring revenues, with double-digit inspection growth in North America for the 21st consecutive quarter [9] - The company continues to see robust activity in various sectors, including data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, aviation, and healthcare [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $10 billion in net revenues by 2028, with consistent mid-single-digit organic growth and a 16% plus adjusted EBITDA margin [8] - Investments in technology, including AI and market-leading systems, are intended to empower field leaders and improve operational efficiency [5][6] - The company is focused on disciplined customer and project selection, pricing, and selective business pruning to enhance margins and growth [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategy and deliver on its financial targets despite evolving macroeconomic conditions [21] - The company anticipates continued strong free cash flow generation and a robust pipeline for M&A activity [11][12] Other Important Information - The company completed four bolt-on acquisitions in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 11, with plans to deploy approximately $250 million in M&A at attractive multiples [11] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 2.0 times, below the long-term target, providing flexibility for capital deployment [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the organic growth in Safety Services? - Management noted robust activity in the data center space, with expectations for data centers to account for 9-10% of total revenue, alongside strong growth in semiconductor and healthcare sectors [26] Question: How is the M&A pipeline progressing? - Management confirmed they are on track with M&A activity, with a focus on North America in fire protection and electronic security, while also exploring international opportunities [28] Question: What is the current status of the elevator and escalator segment? - The elevator segment is experiencing high single-digit organic growth, with positive cross-selling opportunities developing [66] Question: How do you balance growth with margin expansion? - Management emphasized the importance of project size and complexity in driving margins, stating that they are confident in achieving their margin expansion goals while pursuing growth [41][42] Question: What is the expected contribution from M&A to revenue next year? - Management indicated that approximately $1 of purchase price typically translates to about $1 in revenue over a 12-month period, with expectations for deals to be accretive to margins [77]

Core Thesis - Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) is viewed as a mispriced quality compounder with potential for rebound following a period of inventory destocking [2][5] Business Transformation - The company has shifted from traditional hardware sales to a hybrid model that includes a high-margin, recurring service revenue stream, with monthly recurring revenue (MRR) from fire and intrusion radio communicators accounting for over 75% of gross profit and achieving 90% gross margins [2] - The connected radio base has expanded from approximately 200,000 units in 2017 to over 800,000 units currently, with growth expected from replacement demand, new installations, and market share gains [2] Financial Performance - Napco's free cash flow conversion exceeds 85%, and it demonstrates robust returns on invested capital [2] - The company holds a clean balance sheet with net cash representing about 8% of its market cap, supporting strong downside protection [3] Market Position and Growth Potential - Hardware sales are anticipated to recover as distributor inventories normalize, which could enhance near-term revenue [3] - Structural advantages such as nearshore manufacturing in the Dominican Republic and low tariff exposure bolster margins and market share [3] - The company trades at 19x EV/EBITDA on consensus estimates, comparable to industrial peers, but growth normalization and MRR compounding may lead to multiple expansion [3] Risks and Catalysts - Key risks include prolonged weakness in hardware sales, macroeconomic pressures, leadership transitions, and the success of new MRR initiatives [4] - Catalysts for re-rating include unexpected hardware revenue growth, stabilization of MRR growth at 10-12%, ongoing earnings compounding, and continued share buybacks [4] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit earnings CAGR over the next two years, presenting a compelling risk/reward opportunity for long-term investors [4]

Core Insights - NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighting a slight increase in net sales but a decrease in net income and earnings per share compared to the previous year [2][6]. Financial Performance - Net sales for Q4 2025 were $50.7 million, a 0.8% increase from $50.3 million in Q4 2024, while total net sales for the fiscal year were $181.6 million, down 3.8% from $188.8 million in the previous year [3][6]. - Gross profit for Q4 was $26.8 million, representing a gross profit margin of 52.8%, down from 55.3% in Q4 2024. For the full year, gross profit was $101 million with a margin of 55.6%, compared to 53.9% in the prior year [3][6]. - Net income for Q4 was $11.6 million, a 14.1% decrease from $13.5 million in Q4 2024, and for the full year, net income was $43.4 million, down 12.9% from $49.8 million [3][6]. - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 was $0.33, down 8.3% from $0.36, and for the full year, diluted EPS was $1.19, a decrease of 11.2% from $1.34 [3][6]. Recurring Service Revenue - Recurring service revenue (RSR) increased by 10% in Q4 to $22.4 million and by 14% for the full year to $86.3 million, maintaining a gross margin of 91% for both periods [5][6]. - RSR accounted for 44% of total revenue in Q4 and 48% for the full year, with a prospective annual run rate of approximately $94 million based on July 2025 figures [5][6]. Equipment Sales - Equipment sales for Q4 were $28.3 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year but a 27% increase sequentially from Q3. For the full year, equipment sales totaled $95.3 million, down 16% from the previous year [6][5]. - The company faced challenges in equipment revenue due to distributor destocking and project timing but is optimistic about future growth in equipment sales for fiscal 2026 [5][6]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash flows from operating activities for the fiscal year were $53.5 million, an 18% increase from $45.4 million in the previous year [3][6]. - The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, payable on October 3, 2025, to shareholders of record on September 12, 2025 [6][8]. Strategic Developments - The company introduced a new cloud-based MVP Access platform aimed at enhancing security management capabilities for users [6][7]. - NAPCO successfully reduced inventory levels by $8.6 million during fiscal 2025 and repurchased $36.8 million of its common stock [7][6].

Group 1 - SuperCom is a microcap electronic security solutions provider that is rapidly gaining market share in the electronic monitoring systems market [1] - The company has closed over 20 U.S. contracts in the past year, indicating strong growth and demand for its services [1]