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快手科技-Kling 新模式势头渐起,2026 财年收入及估值或存上行空间;买入
2026-01-07 03:05
Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology - **Ticker**: 1024.HK - **Industry**: AI Video Generation Key Points Industry Dynamics - The AI video generation industry is in its early stages, with a Total Addressable Market (TAM) projected to grow from **US$1 billion in 2025** to **US$39 billion by 2033**, representing a **56% CAGR** [6][15] - The Professional (2P) segment of the TAM is expected to expand from **US$700 million in 2025** to **US$17 billion by 2033**, with a **49% CAGR** [6][15] - The Business (2B) segment is anticipated to grow from **US$400 million in 2025** to **US$22 billion by 2033**, outpacing the Professional segment with a **66% CAGR** [6][15] Company Performance - Kuaishou's share price increased by **11%** on January 5, 2026, attributed to the strong performance of the Kling AI model and positive sentiment towards AI applications [1] - Revenue forecasts for Kuaishou are now **US$140 million+ for 2025** and **US$230-240 million for 2026**, with potential upside due to the popularity of the Kling AI 2.6 Motion Control feature [7][16] - The current share price implies a **10X PE** for Kuaishou's main platform and **25X P/S** for Kling, suggesting a valuation of **US$5-6 billion** [7][21] User Adoption and Growth - Kling AI has seen a significant increase in user engagement, with daily grossing rising **113%** from December 27, 2025, to January 3, 2026, and weekly grossing increasing **64%** [2] - The Motion Control feature of Kling AI has gone viral, particularly in markets like Korea and the US, contributing to its rapid growth [2][5] Competitive Positioning - Positive user feedback highlights Kling AI's realistic motion and lifelike facial expressions, positioning it favorably against competitors like Runway [5] - Despite a **60%+ increase in pricing** for the new models compared to previous versions, Kling AI remains competitive against overseas peers [5][20] Future Outlook - Upcoming releases of new functions and versions of video models are expected to enhance production efficiency and broaden use cases [8] - Enterprise clients now account for **40% of Kling's revenue**, indicating a growing demand for professional video usage [8] Risks and Considerations - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected recovery in advertising budgets, weaker monetization of Kling, and lower profitability [24] - The company maintains a **Buy** rating with a 12-month price target of **HK$83**, indicating a potential upside of **12.8%** from the current price [26] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology is positioned to capitalize on the expanding AI video generation market, with strong user adoption and innovative features driving growth. The company faces risks but maintains a favorable outlook supported by robust revenue forecasts and competitive positioning.