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摩根士丹利:中国市场洞察-在美国大幅提高关税的形势下如何进行投资布局
摩根· 2025-04-06 14:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight (EW) stance on MSCI China within the global EM/APXJ framework [9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates higher near-term market volatility due to the US imposing additional tariffs on China, raising the total tariff rate to up to 65% [2][4]. - The A-share market is viewed as better positioned for hedging and diversification compared to the offshore market, as A-share investors are less sensitive to tariff changes [3]. - The direct impact on earnings from the tariffs is expected to be smaller than the overall drag on macroeconomic growth, with the MSCI China universe generating only 13% of its total revenue from markets outside China, and less than 3% from the US [7]. Summary by Sections Market Volatility - The report highlights that the recent tariff hikes could lead to elevated market volatility as the market adjusts to the potential economic impacts [2][4]. A-Share Market Positioning - The A-share market is recommended for investors seeking stability, as it has shown lower correlation with global markets and less volatility compared to offshore markets [3]. Earnings Impact - The report suggests that the overall drag on equity market earnings will be less severe than the impact on macro growth, primarily due to the limited revenue exposure of listed Chinese companies to the US market [7]. Companies with High US Revenue Exposure - A list of 30 companies with the highest revenue exposure to the US market is provided, indicating potential negative impacts on these companies in the near term [8]. Key Indicators to Monitor - The report advises monitoring the USDCNY exchange rate, signs of US-China negotiations, and any significant policy easing measures to stabilize domestic growth [9].