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KG: ISM Services "Stagflationary" & Why ENPH Soared After Earnings
Youtube· 2026-02-04 16:00
Economic Indicators - The S&P Global Composite Services PMI came in at 52.7%, exceeding expectations of 52.5% and showing improvement from the previous month [1][2] - The overall composite number was reported at 53, better than the anticipated 52.8% [2] - The ISM Services PMI headline number was 53.8%, slightly above the forecast of 53.5% [2] Price Trends - The prices component of the ISM report increased to 66.6%, surpassing the expected 65 and higher than the previous print of 65.1% [3] - Input prices are still rising, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in the services sector [3] New Orders and Employment - New orders in the services sector came in lower than expected at 53.1%, which may suggest stagflationary conditions [4] - The ADP private jobs report showed an addition of only 22,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations, with notable weakness outside the healthcare sector [8][9] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector remains a strong performer, adding jobs significantly, while manufacturing jobs continue to decline [9][10] - The overall job growth in 2025 is not meeting the levels seen in 2024, indicating a deceleration in employment growth [10] Company Earnings - Nphase reported a revenue of $343.3 million, exceeding the expected $334.6 million, and adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents, above the forecast of 54 cents [12][13] - The positive earnings were attributed to the ending of tax credits in the U.S., which boosted their domestic business performance [14] - Analysts are raising price targets and ratings for Nphase shares following the earnings report, indicating renewed investor interest [16] Geopolitical Factors - Crude oil prices are trading around $63 to $64, influenced by geopolitical tensions and military positioning in the Middle East [17][18] - Recent events, including a drone strike and naval encounters, are contributing to a risk premium in crude oil markets [18][19] - The transition from winter to summer blend for refiners may provide additional support for crude oil prices in the coming months [19][20]