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Sabre(SABR) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-05 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of $715 million, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, consistent with guidance for low to mid-single-digit growth [16][17] - Normalized adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $150 million, up 23% year-on-year, with the normalized adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 340 basis points to 21% [18][9] - Pro forma free cash flow was $13 million, with an expectation of approximately $70 million for the full year 2025 [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total distribution bookings grew by 3% year-on-year, with air distribution bookings increasing by more than 2% [7][8] - Hotel distribution bookings grew by 6% in the quarter, and the attachment rate to air bookings increased over 100 basis points year-on-year [8] - IT solutions revenue remained flat at $140 million year-on-year, as growth from passengers boarded was offset by a decrease in license fee revenue [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced softness in July air bookings, but saw improvement in September, which finished strong with a 7% year-on-year increase [7][8] - The GDS industry air distribution bookings declined approximately 1 percentage point year-on-year, impacting the company's air booking mix [8] - The company noted that U.S. military and government travel represented about 4% of global air distribution volumes, which is a minor component of current trading volumes [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce net leverage by approximately 50% by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2023, focusing on generating free cash flow and deleveraging the balance sheet [6][20] - Innovation is central to the company's strategy, with recent announcements including agentic APIs for travel and a continuous revenue optimizer within the Sabre Mosaic platform [6][10] - The company is transforming its platform into a modern, open travel marketplace, with 41 live NDC integrations enhancing its competitive position [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to drive air distribution bookings growth, despite challenges from the government shutdown impacting October bookings by approximately 3 percentage points [15][21] - The outlook for Q4 anticipates air distribution bookings growth of between 6% and 8%, with a full-year expectation of near the low end of the previously provided range of 0.5%-3.5% [21][22] - Management highlighted that leisure demand is positive year-on-year, while corporate demand remains mixed, with expectations for low single-digit passenger growth globally [38][39] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its capital structure, paying off over $1 billion of debt this year, including approximately $825 million from the sale of the Hospitality Solutions business [19][20] - The payments business is scaling rapidly, processing over $20 billion in annual transactions, with quarterly gross spend growing over 40% year-on-year [11][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you run through the updated FY25 guidance and explain the changes in EBITDA and free cash flow? - Management noted that the $20 million reduction in EBITDA is primarily due to a $10-$12 million impact from the government shutdown, along with lower margin from FX and product sales [23][24] Question: What is the impact of the government shutdown on travel? - The impact is mainly on travel by government employees and U.S. military, with a high concentration of this business affecting overall volumes [28][29] Question: What is the current NDC mix? - The NDC mix remains in the low single digits, between 2% and 3% of air distribution volumes, but is expected to grow rapidly [30] Question: How does the company expect to recover from the government shutdown? - Management anticipates a phased recovery back to normalcy, likely in the first quarter following the resolution of the shutdown [32] Question: Can you elaborate on the payments business strategy? - The payments business is scaling at a 40% top line rate, with significant growth opportunities identified, although specific revenue and margin details have not been disclosed yet [32]