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万国数据 - 2025 年第三季度前瞻:聚焦芯片组与 DayOne
2025-11-04 01:56
Summary of GDS Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GDS Holdings Ltd - **Industry**: Greater China Telecoms - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: US$54.00 - **Current Price**: US$35.70 (as of October 31, 2025) - **Market Cap**: Rmb50,238 million Key Financial Metrics - **3Q25E Revenue**: Rmb2,884 million, representing a 10.1% YoY growth - **3Q25E EBITDA**: Rmb1,231 million - **Adjusted EBITDA Margin**: 46.2% for 3Q25E - **2025 Revenue Forecast**: Rmb11,514 million - **2026 Revenue Forecast**: Rmb12,964 million Core Insights - **Revenue and EBITDA Growth**: GDS Holdings is expected to achieve 10-11% YoY growth in revenue and EBITDA for 3Q25E, despite a slight QoQ decline in revenue due to the de-consolidation of mature assets into REITs [1][10] - **Chipset Supply Dynamics**: The focus is on new NV chipset supply for China, with ongoing negotiations affecting Nvidia's shipments. This situation is expected to drive stock performance, as domestic GPU productivity is anticipated to meet future demand [3][4] - **Domestic Market Outlook**: New data center bookings in China have been muted since April 2025, with expectations for limited new orders in 3Q25. However, optimism remains for 2026 due to domestic GPU capacity expansion [4][9] - **DayOne Performance**: DayOne is projected to deliver strong order intake, particularly from global hyperscalers, which is expected to offset domestic market challenges [4][10] Market Positioning - **Valuation Metrics**: GDS China is trading at 10.6x 2025 EV/EBITDA, compared to 22x for its REITs assets, indicating a distressed valuation situation [4] - **Future Order Intake**: The market is forward-looking, with hyperscalers' tenders expected to be a significant driver for future growth. There is an upside risk to the forecast of 900MW bookings by the end of 2025, with expectations for continued growth into 2026 [4][10] Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: Risks include reduced capex from hyperscalers, intensified competition, and potential reversals in interest rate trends in China and the US [12] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain constraints affecting the semiconductor industry [3][4] Additional Insights - **Analyst Ratings**: GDS Holdings is rated as a top pick within the Greater China Telecoms sector, reflecting a positive outlook despite current challenges [7][66] - **Earnings Impact**: The likely impact on consensus EPS for the next 12 months is expected to remain largely unchanged, with potential upside surprises from DayOne orders [10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting GDS Holdings' financial performance, market dynamics, and future outlook.
摩根士丹利:中国铁塔-2025 年第一季度业绩速评
摩根· 2025-04-23 10:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Tower Corp Ltd is Overweight, with an industry view classified as Attractive [4][62]. Core Insights - The total revenue for 1Q25 was Rmb24.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [7]. - The tower business revenue decreased by 0.4% year-over-year, while the DAS business grew by 15.2% year-over-year [2][7]. - The smart tower and energy business saw a year-over-year increase of 17.9%, although it experienced a quarter-over-quarter decline of 18.5% [2][7]. - EBITDA increased by 4.2% year-over-year to Rmb17.3 billion, with a margin expansion of 0.6 percentage points [7]. - Net profit rose by 8.6% year-over-year to Rmb3 billion, with a margin increase of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Tower business revenue: Rmb18,877 million, down 0.4% YoY, up 0.5% QoQ [2]. - DAS business revenue: Rmb2,347 million, up 15.2% YoY, up 6.3% QoQ [2]. - Smart Tower and Energy business revenue: Rmb3,457 million, up 17.9% YoY, down 18.5% QoQ [2]. - Total revenue: Rmb24,771 million, up 3.3% YoY, down 2.2% QoQ [2]. - EBITDA: Rmb17,295 million, up 4.2% YoY, margin at 69.8% [2][7]. - Profit before taxation: Rmb4,006 million, up 8.6% YoY, margin at 16.2% [2]. - Net profit: Rmb3,024 million, up 8.6% YoY, margin at 12.2% [2]. Market Position - Current market capitalization is US$24.8 billion, with an enterprise value of US$33.99 billion [4]. - The average daily trading value is US$71 million [4].