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摩根大通:中国高学历待业青年和1200万新毕业生-未来去向哪里
摩根· 2025-06-26 14:09
Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for sectors benefiting from the influx of educated youth into the workforce, particularly in services, healthcare, financial services, high-tech industries, and hospitality & entertainment [66][69]. Core Insights - Youth unemployment in China has increased significantly, from approximately 10% in 2018 to around 21% in the summer of 2023, but this is viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat due to the unprecedented level of education among the youth entering the workforce [2][5][6]. - China is transitioning from an industrial policy-driven economy to a services-oriented economy, with a notable increase in the contribution of services to GDP, which has risen from 32% in 1990 to 55% in 2023 [4][53]. - The report highlights that the most educated cohort in China's history is entering the labor market, with tertiary education enrollment rates soaring from 3% in 1990 to 75% in 2023, indicating a well-prepared workforce [4][14][10]. Summary by Sections Youth Unemployment - Youth unemployment is currently misinterpreted as a threat, while it actually presents an opportunity for economic growth as the most educated population enters the workforce [6][13]. - The report emphasizes that the rise in youth unemployment should be viewed through the lens of potential service consumption growth [6][20]. Human Capital Development - China has rapidly upskilled its population, with 15,467 per 100,000 now holding a degree, a fourfold increase over the past 20 years [4][10]. - Investment in education has increased from 2.4% of GDP in 2005 to 4.0% in 2022, leading to a significant rise in STEM graduates [4][39]. Service Sector Growth - The services sector in China is expected to grow significantly, with the potential to reach levels comparable to the US, where services contribute 76% to GDP [53][55]. - Key sectors identified for growth include healthcare, financial services, high-tech industries, and hospitality & entertainment, which currently employ a lower percentage of the labor force compared to the US [62][66]. Investment Opportunities - The report lists specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in service consumption, including Trip.com, MGM China, NetEase, and Ping An Group, among others [66][69][88]. - The financial intermediation sector is highlighted as having substantial growth potential, particularly in health and protection products, with a noted lack of active CPAs in China compared to the US [70][69]. Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is poised for growth, with China now holding a 20% share of global PCT patent publications in biotechnology, second only to the US [76][81]. - The report identifies companies like Innovent and Akeso as potential beneficiaries of the expanding healthcare services market [76][81].