June 5, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Insurance - Property & Casualty | North America Loss Reserving: Tariff Impact Should Introduce More Volatility While the ultimate impact from tariffs remains unknown, these uncertainties could introduce more volatility to reserving in the near term. Specifically, we believe that insurers are likely to see a wider range of reserving outcomes within the property lines. Tariffs introduce more unknowns to reserving, potentially impacting companies that rely on favorable property reserv ...

Industry Overview - The property and casualty insurance industry is expected to grow despite an increase in catastrophic activities, focusing on personalized offerings and digitalization to enhance customer experience [1] - Insurers are experiencing solid retention, exposure growth across business lines, and improved pricing, which are driving higher premiums and maintaining profitability [1] Factors Affecting Progressive Corporation (PGR) - PGR is a leading auto insurance group and is expanding into homeowners and commercial insurance, with a focus on auto bundles and risk management [3] - The company has embraced digital transformation, utilizing AI technologies to support personalized pricing and improve customer retention [4] - PGR's average combined ratio has remained under 93% over the past decade, indicating strong underwriting discipline [5] - The net margin has improved by 950 basis points in the last two years, driven by rising demand for personal auto insurance [6] - PGR's return on equity stands at 33.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.8% [7] Factors Affecting Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) - TRV has a strong market presence in auto, homeowners', and commercial property-casualty insurance, with net written premiums growing over 70% to over $43 billion in the past eight years [8] - The company has maintained high retention levels and improved pricing, although it anticipates a gradual moderation in renewal premium changes [9][10] - TRV's net margin improved by 170 basis points over the last two years, reflecting prudent underwriting [11] - The company has seen rising debt levels, with a debt of $8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, which has increased interest expenses [12] Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's 2025 revenues and EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of 16.5% and 12.2%, respectively [13] - In contrast, TRV's 2025 revenue estimate implies a 5.4% increase, while EPS is expected to decline by 14.8% [16] - PGR's price-to-book multiple is 5.67, above its five-year median of 4.72, while TRV's is 2.15, above its median of 1.74 [17][18] Conclusion - PGR is focused on increasing auto and home-bundled households and investing in mobile applications to drive growth, while TRV benefits from strong renewal rates and retention [19] - PGR has a higher return on equity compared to TRV, with a VGM Score of A versus TRV's B [20] - Year-to-date, PGR shares have gained 17%, outperforming the industry, while TRV has gained 11.3%, underperforming the industry [20]