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Lumentum vs. Amphenol: Which AI Connectivity Stock is the Better Buy?
ZACKS· 2026-03-20 16:15
Core Insights - Lumentum (LITE) and Amphenol (APH) are key suppliers in the AI data center ecosystem, benefiting from increased hyperscaler capital expenditure and demand for high-speed connectivity solutions [1][9] Lumentum (LITE) - Lumentum plays a foundational role in the AI data center supply chain, manufacturing optical and photonic components essential for high-speed networks [3] - The company’s product suite includes Electro-absorption Modulated Laser chips (EML), cloud transceivers, optical circuit switches (OCS), and co-packaged optics (CPO), which are critical for large-scale AI workloads [3] - The transceiver business is a near-term catalyst, with a ramp in 800G products and an accelerated transition to 1.6T, leading to higher margins and revenue growth [4] - Lumentum's fiscal second-quarter revenues reached $665.5 million, a 65.5% year-over-year increase, with third-quarter guidance of $780 million to $830 million [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects LITE's fiscal 2026 EPS at $7.7, indicating a year-over-year growth of 273.79% [6] Amphenol (APH) - Amphenol provides diversified interconnect solutions, including electronic and fiber optic components for power delivery and data transmission across AI data centers [7] - The IT datacom segment is a near-term catalyst for Amphenol, driven by sustained hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure [8] - The acquisition of CommScope's connectivity business is expected to contribute approximately $4.1 billion in revenues by 2026, although it may impact near-term profitability [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects APH's 2026 EPS at $4.32, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29.34% [10] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, LITE shares have surged 370%, while APH has seen a modest return of 5.8%, indicating Lumentum's stronger revenue momentum and market recognition [11] - LITE trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 12.95x compared to APH's 5.02x, reflecting higher growth expectations for Lumentum [13] - Lumentum's premium valuation is attributed to its structural relationships with hyperscalers and a product portfolio that adds compounding revenue layers [13] Conclusion - Lumentum is positioned as a pure-play beneficiary of the AI optical connectivity buildout, with significant growth catalysts ahead [15] - Amphenol's diversified business model offers stability and consistent execution across market cycles, making it a resilient holding for investors [15] - Lumentum is rated as a more compelling investment option compared to Amphenol at this time [17]