Key Takeaways Annaly holds $7.4B in assets for financing, supporting liquidity and dividend stability.Arbor Realty cut its dividend by 30.3% in May 2025 amid weak liquidity and high debt.NLY trades at a discount, with sales and earnings estimates trending higher, unlike ABR.Both Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) are mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) offering high dividend yields and operating in the leveraged mortgage-backed securities space. Yet they differ signific ...

Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) shares have increased by 10.3% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry growth of 5.1% and its peers AGNC Investment (7.6% growth) and Arbor Realty Trust (17.8% decline) [1][7]. Company Overview - Annaly is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily owns, manages, and finances a portfolio of real estate-related investment securities, utilizing a diversified capital allocation strategy to navigate market fluctuations [2][3]. Portfolio Composition & Strategy - Annaly's investment portfolio totals $89.5 billion as of June 30, 2025, with $79.5 billion in a highly liquid Agency portfolio, which helps lower volatility and interest rate sensitivity while generating attractive risk-adjusted returns [3][4]. - The company is focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to enhance its MSR business, which tends to increase in value as interest rates rise, offsetting declines in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [5][10]. Financial Performance - Net interest income (NII) surged to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from $47.1 million in the same period the previous year, driven by improving loan demand [7][18]. - Annaly's dividend yield stands at 13.6%, higher than the industry average of 12.5%, with a payout ratio of 99% [11][14]. Market Position & Outlook - The company has a strong liquidity position with $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency MBS, providing a competitive edge in adverse market conditions [15]. - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 upward, indicating a bullish outlook with expected year-over-year growth of 7% and 2.5%, respectively [21]. Valuation Metrics - Annaly is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 1.07X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.01X, suggesting a premium valuation compared to peers [24].

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management offers a high dividend yield of 13%, but it is not a reliable income investment and should be considered as part of a diversified portfolio focused on total returns rather than income generation [2][10]. Group 1: Dividend Yield and Investment Reliability - Annaly Capital's dividend yield is significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% and the average REIT's 3.9% [2]. - The volatility of Annaly's dividend and its stock price tends to move in tandem, indicating that long-term investors may end up with reduced income and capital [4]. - The nature of Annaly as a mortgage REIT complicates its income reliability, as the yield is affected by mortgage repayments and market dynamics [5]. Group 2: Total Return Focus - Annaly Capital aims for attractive total returns rather than consistent income, making it essential for investors to reinvest dividends to benefit fully [7]. - The total return of Annaly is comparable to that of the S&P 500 over time, but with a different return profile, making it a valuable addition to a diversified asset allocation portfolio [8]. - Including Annaly in a portfolio can provide returns that are not directly correlated with stock market performance, enhancing overall portfolio returns [9]. Group 3: Investment Complexity - Annaly is more complex than traditional property-owning REITs, which may deter income-focused investors despite its high dividend yield [10].

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - FBRT reported GAAP earnings of $24.4 million or $0.21 per fully converted common share for Q2 2025, with distributable earnings of $29 million or $0.27 per fully converted share [16] - The average risk rating at quarter end was 2.3, with 137 of 145 positions rated two or three, and watch list loans represented only 5% of the total portfolio [9][12] - The company's liquidity position was $5.1 billion, including $77 million in unrestricted cash [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated $61 million in new loan commitments, primarily in multifamily assets, which was a deliberate reduction to maintain a higher cash balance ahead of the NewPoint acquisition [6][7] - FBRT sold three multifamily assets totaling $56 million, which was above the principal basis at the time of foreclosure [10] - The core portfolio ended the quarter at $4.5 billion across 145 loans, with multifamily making up 74% of the portfolio [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The multifamily fundamentals are improving, with new supply slowing and rent growth reemerging in certain markets [28] - The company noted that credit markets are flush with liquidity, indicating a strong demand for shorter duration credit [26] - The average cost of debt on the core portfolio is SOFR plus 2.3%, with 77% of financing coming from CLOs [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of NewPoint is seen as a significant milestone, expanding FBRT's platform within multifamily lending and enhancing income stability [12] - The company aims to grow distributable earnings through calling CLOs, reinvesting equity from the REO portfolio, and contributions from NewPoint [17][18] - FBRT's stock is trading at a discount to book value, attributed to concerns over dividend coverage and asset quality [13][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the legacy portfolio, stating that losses near the implied $450 million level are highly unlikely [38] - The company anticipates a period of acceptance in the market, where investors will recognize the need to mark loans appropriately [78] - Management expects NewPoint's earnings contribution to grow significantly over time, correlating with agency and FHA origination volume [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress on its REO portfolio, with 10 out of 19 properties sold above the principal balance at the time of foreclosure [33] - The migration of servicing for FBRT's loans to NewPoint is expected to yield savings and additional servicing revenue [81] Q&A Session Summary Question: Have you resumed originations and at what pace since the closing of NewPoint? - Management confirmed that originations have resumed and are expected to grow quarter over quarter, targeting a portfolio size of around $5 billion to maximize dividend coverage [41][44] Question: What are you seeing in terms of spreads compared to a year ago? - Management noted that spreads are tighter by 100 to 125 basis points compared to a year ago and 25 to 50 basis points tighter than 60 to 90 days ago [46] Question: Do the CLOs need to be replaced with other debt? - Management indicated that calling the CLOs would allow for leveraging back up to optimal levels, freeing up cash for more originations [50][52] Question: What is needed for NewPoint to ramp origination activity? - Management stated that expanding the net spread across the country and increasing the origination staff would drive volume growth [75] Question: Is there a savings related to migrating FBRT's loans over to NewPoint's servicer? - Yes, management confirmed that there would be savings from cutting out markups and benefiting from float on cash reserves [81][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a loss of $0.29 per share in Q2 2025, compared to income of $0.18 per share in Q1 2025. Excluding realized and unrealized losses, net income was $0.16 per share, unchanged from Q1 [5] - Book value decreased from $7.94 per share at the end of Q1 to $7.21 at the end of Q2. Total return for the quarter was negative 4.66%, compared to positive 2.6% in Q1 [5] - The company maintained dividends of $0.36 in both quarters [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the quarter increased to $6.9 billion from just under $6 billion in Q1. The leverage ratio decreased from $7.8 billion at the end of Q1 to $7.3 billion at the end of Q2 [6] - Prepayment speeds increased to 10.1% in Q2 from 7.8% in Q1, while liquidity rose to 54% from 52% [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced significant volatility due to reciprocal tariffs and the passage of a major bill, impacting the overall market outlook [8][9] - The U.S. Treasury curve has been steepening, which is significant for levered MBS investors as it makes hedging positions using swaps more attractive [13][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting its portfolio strategy towards a more concentrated production coupon bias, moving away from a barbell approach. This strategy has been beneficial in the current steepening yield curve environment [36] - The company expects the investment environment for Agency RMBS to remain attractive, with production coupon spreads at historically wide levels [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the economy despite challenges such as tariffs and high mortgage rates. They anticipate continued strong economic performance driven by government deficits and spending [26][99] - The company expects refinancing activity to remain low due to high mortgage rates and affordability issues, which could make higher coupon assets attractive [24][70] Other Important Information - The company raised $140 million in new equity during the quarter, which was deployed into higher coupon specified pools [45] - The funding environment remains stable, with ample liquidity and no issues in adding repo counterparties [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Increase in shares and capital raising strategy - Management confirmed an increase in shares due to a capital raise and indicated that future capital raising would depend on stock price and market conditions [54][56] Question: Premium risk in high coupon pools - Management acknowledged the premium risk but noted that the prepayment experience on lower pay-up pools has been favorable, suggesting a cautious but optimistic approach [57][59] Question: Updated book value - Management provided an estimate of a 3-cent decline in book value quarter-to-date, indicating ongoing market fluctuations [65] Question: Outlook for prepayment speeds - Management expects prepayment speeds to remain muted in the third quarter, with seasonal factors influencing the outlook [68][70] Question: MBS spreads and interest rate expectations - Management discussed the potential for MBS spreads to widen or tighten based on economic conditions and emphasized the resilience of the mortgage market despite challenges [91][96]

Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $0.29 per share for Q2 2025, compared to a net income of $0.18 per share in Q1 2025 [11] - Book value decreased from $7.94 in Q1 2025 to $7.21 in Q2 2025 [11] - Average MBS balances increased from $5,996 million in Q1 2025 to $6,866 million in Q2 2025 [15] - Economic leverage ratio remained constant at 7.8 in both Q1 and Q2 2025 [15] - Liquidity increased from 52.2% in Q1 2025 to 54.0% in Q2 2025 [15] Portfolio & Hedging - The company increased its allocation to 30yr 5.5%, 6.0%, and 6.5% coupons by $555 million, $145 million, and $86 million, respectively, while decreasing allocation to 30yr 4.0% and 5.0% by $334 million and $137 million, respectively [47] - Total notional balance of hedge positions was $(4,881.8) million [59] - Interest rate swaps had a notional balance of $(3,843.3) million with a weighted average pay fix rate of 3.30% [59] - The company's hedge positions covered 58% of its repo funding liability [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic return for the quarter was negative 4.8%, consisting of a $0.34 dividend per common share and a $0.76 decline in book value per common share [7] - The debt to equity ratio decreased from 7.1x at the end of March to 6.5x at the end of June, indicating a more defensive posture due to elevated near-term uncertainty [7] - As of July 18, 2025, the estimated book value per common share is between $7.99 and $8.31, reflecting a slight recovery in performance [8][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency RMBS portfolio decreased by 15% quarter over quarter as the company managed risk amid trade policy uncertainty [18] - The allocation to Agency CMBS increased from 15% at the end of Q1 to just over 17% as of June 30, 2025, due to the decline in the Agency RMBS portfolio [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest rates declined across the front end of the Treasury yield curve during Q2, while long-term rates increased, reflecting expectations for accommodative policy from the FOMC [6][11] - The two-year Treasury yield declined by 16 basis points, while the thirty-year yield increased by 20 basis points, leading to the steepest two-thirty spread in nearly 3.5 years [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a cautious near-term outlook but is optimistic about the long-term demand for Agency mortgages due to attractive valuations and stabilization in interest rate volatility [8][25] - The focus remains on specified pools with predictable prepayment behavior, particularly in lower loan balance collateral [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that financial conditions were volatile in Q2 but ended modestly accommodative, with expectations for two rate cuts by year-end and additional cuts in 2026 [5][25] - The company believes that further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and a decline in interest rate volatility, supporting long-term demand for agency mortgages [25] Other Important Information - The company’s liquidity position is strong, providing a cushion for potential market stress while allowing for capital deployment as the investment environment improves [25] - The financing market for Agency CMBS remains robust, with no concerns about deterioration during a widening event [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the relative risk versus reward for high coupon RMBS? - The company believes that spreads reflect the risk accurately and has reduced exposure to higher coupon RMBS due to their sensitivity to interest rate volatility [29][30] Question: What is the company's comfort level on leverage? - The company is comfortable with its current leverage, which is lower than in Q1, and does not feel the need to increase leverage to meet return goals [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for swap spreads and the mix of hedges? - The company anticipates that swap spreads will widen, which would be beneficial, and is currently at maximum allocation to interest rate swaps [37][38] Question: What are the views on core earnings and dividends? - The company expects ROEs to remain attractive, supporting the current dividend without significant changes in the near term [41][45] Question: How does the company feel about CMBS spreads when the Fed cuts rates? - The company is comfortable with the financing market for Agency CMBS and expects spreads to tighten as the Fed cuts rates [60][62]

The most eye-catching feature of Annaly Capital Management's (NLY 2.28%) stock is its 14%+ dividend yield. There are some strong reasons to consider buying the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). And yet there's a caveat here that income investors specifically will want to know before buying this stock like there's no tomorrow. Here are three reasons to like Annaly and one very big reason to avoid it. The third reason to jump on Annaly's stock is interest rates. It seems increasingly likely that i ...

Annaly Capital (NLY 0.66%) has a huge dividend yield that approaches 15%. And the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) just increased its dividend at the start of 2025. But don't get lured in by the yield if you are looking for a reliable dividend stock. The big problem with Annaly Capital Annaly Capital actually achieves what it sets out to do, so it isn't a bad mortgage REIT. The problem is the mortgage REIT model, which involves buying mortgages that have been pooled into bond-like securities. Th ...