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Lamar's Outlook Bolstered By Recent Data
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-05-27 20:46
Company Overview - Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ:LAMR) issued guidance for 2025, projecting approximately 4% growth in Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share over 2024 [1][2] - The company reported 1Q25 earnings on May 8, 2025, and reaffirmed its guidance during the earnings call, indicating that it is on track to meet its previously provided AFFO per share guidance [5][6] Market Concerns - There are macroeconomic concerns affecting advertising spend, with key advertisers potentially pulling back due to uncertainties in supply chains and consumer spending [2] - MAGNA revised its forecast for media advertising revenues, projecting a growth of 4.3% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 4.9% [2] Performance Insights - As of May 2025, 75% of ad space is already contracted, which provides a solid revenue base for the company [6] - The growth is expected to be back-end loaded, with sequential strength anticipated as the year progresses [6] Industry Dynamics - The out-of-home (OOH) advertising industry has shown resilience, with billboards gaining market share from traditional media like linear TV and radio [9][10] - The industry benefits from limited new supply due to regulatory constraints, creating a strong competitive moat for existing players [9][11] Financial Strategies - The company has engaged in share buybacks, repurchasing 1.223 million shares for a total of $131.6 million in April 2025, which is expected to be accretive to AFFO per share [12][13] - Lamar is also pursuing accretive acquisitions that should contribute positively to AFFO [13] Growth Outlook - Despite a projected slowdown to 4% AFFO per share growth, the underlying growth rate is believed to be closer to 6%+ due to challenging comparisons with 2024 [8][16] - The company is trading at 13.7X AFFO, which is considered opportunistic given its growth outlook of 4% to 8% over the next five years [16]