丙烯日报 | 2025-11-28 主力下游开工回落，关注成本端扰动 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5798元/吨（-22），丙烯华东现货价5995元/吨（-5），丙烯华北现货价6050元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差197元/吨（+17），丙烯华北基差179元/吨（-43）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR192美元/吨（+18），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR67美元/吨（+11），进口利润-354元/吨（-86），厂内库存48970吨 （+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-310元/吨（+55）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-263元/吨（+66）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润72元/吨 （+118）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润444元/吨（+4）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-443元/吨（+21）； 酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，镇海炼化裂解装置重启，中化泉州、 ...

Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Chemicals: Wave of Industry Restructuring Sweeping Across Asia Simplified Version) l Petrochemical majors (industry view: Attractive): Expecting continued weak petrochemical demand and ethylene utilization rates, but in addition to China's anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in South Korea; believe the overall mood is improving. Asia petchem prices and spreads unlikely to fall further, but probably lack recovery momentum. Added i ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market conditions for most bulk and diversified chemical producers remain challenging, despite some signs of recent demand improvement in polymer production [1] - Long-term issues of oversupply and cost-cutting persist in the industry [1] Group 2: Polyolefins Market Performance - LyondellBasell reported an adjusted net income of $330 million, up from $202 million in the second quarter, driven by strong polyethylene (PE) sales and lower ethylene costs [2] - LyondellBasell noted that while PE profit margins improved due to cost reductions, polypropylene margins and sales remain weak; however, PE sales in the U.S. and Europe have begun to recover [2] - ExxonMobil also contributed to the positive performance in the polyolefins market, although specific figures were not detailed [2] Group 3: Company Financials - LyondellBasell's sales decreased by 10% to $7.73 billion, with a net income of -$890 million [3] - Nutrien's sales increased by 13% to $5.735 billion, with a net income of $464 million [3] - Mosaic reported a 25% increase in sales to $3.452 billion, with a net income of $411 million, a 237% increase [3] - Braskem's adjusted net income was $1.7 million, recovering from a loss of $89 million in the previous quarter, attributed to cost-cutting and a focus on higher-value sales [5]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. acquired 17.9 million shares of Alphabet Inc., valued at approximately $4.9 billion, representing 0.31% of outstanding shares [1] - Berkshire's cash reserves reached a record $382 billion, prompting investments in Occidental Petroleum Corp. and UnitedHealth Group Inc. [2] - Berkshire reduced its Apple stake by 15%, now valued at $60.7 billion, while still holding nearly 25% of its equity portfolio in Apple [3] - The company sold 37.2 million shares of Bank of America, maintaining a 7.7% stake in the firm [3] - Berkshire exited its position in D.R. Horton Inc., a US home builder [3]

The collaboration aims to achieve up to 100,000 tonnes of textile-recycled polyethene terephthalate (PET) spinning capacity per year. Indorama Ventures said that this move will strengthen the “resilience and transparency” within the international textile supply chain, while also improving the value provided by both partners to the industry. The completion of the joint venture is contingent upon receiving the necessary regulatory approvals. Indorama Ventures fibres business executive president Diego Boer ...

Core Insights - Brazilian engineering group Novonor is nearing an agreement to sell a significant portion of its controlling stake in the petrochemical company Braskem to IG4 Capital [1] Group 1 - The transaction involves the sale of most of Novonor's controlling interest in Braskem, indicating a strategic shift for the company [1] - Sources indicate that the deal is in advanced stages, highlighting the urgency and importance of this transaction for both parties involved [1] - The potential sale reflects ongoing consolidation trends within the petrochemical industry, as companies seek to optimize their portfolios and focus on core operations [1]

AGENDA This presentation was updated as of September 30, 2025, and Braskem does not assume any obligation to update it in light of new information and/or future developments. Braskem undertakes no liability for transactions or investment decisions made based on the information in this presentation. 2 | PUBLIC EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL 3 RD QUARTER 2025 N O V E M B E R 1 1 , 2 0 2 5 DISCLAIMER REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 3Q25 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL This presentation may contain forward-looking stat ...

Core Insights - Brazilian petrochemical firm Braskem has agreed to pay 1.2 billion reais ($222 million) to the northeastern state of Alagoas as part of a compensation deal related to damages caused by its operations [1] Company Summary - The compensation amount of 1.2 billion reais ($222 million) reflects Braskem's ongoing efforts to address environmental and operational impacts in the region [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Chemical Sector Industry Overview - The conference focused on the transformation of China's chemical sector under the anti-involution policy, aiming for a domestic supply-demand balance by the end of the decade with over 90% of production consumed within China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Transformation and Upgrades**: China's chemical sector is undergoing significant changes driven by the anti-involution policy and the upcoming 15th Five Year Plan, focusing on upgrading existing assets and phasing out obsolete equipment to prioritize higher-value products [2][3]. 2. **Capacity Reductions**: Approximately 3 million tons per year (tpy) of capacity is being eliminated, particularly older naphtha cracking units, with impacts expected on supply-demand balances around 2028-2029 [3][4]. 3. **Producer Dynamics**: New ethylene and propylene capacities are concentrated among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and large private players, focusing on higher-margin derivatives. Shutdowns for private producers occur when margin losses exceed approximately 1,000 RMB/t for 2-3 years [4][11]. 4. **Global Implications**: The global petrochemical market may face risks as mid-cycle conditions could shift lower due to efficiency gains at the higher end of the cost curve. Current policies are favorable for companies rated as Buy, such as ALB and LAC, while EMN and MEOH could benefit from more aggressive reforms [5][33]. 5. **Ethylene Capacity Growth**: China's ethylene capacity is projected to reach 98 million tpy by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2024 and 9.8% from 2020. Domestic demand for ethylene is expected to grow by 64% by 2028 [7][8]. 6. **Propylene Market Dynamics**: China holds approximately 38% of the global propylene market, with domestic sufficiency at around 96%. The competition is more fragmented compared to ethylene, with the top five producers accounting for only about 15% of the market [11][12]. 7. **Policy Approach**: The government is adopting a more cautious policy approach towards new ethylene projects, emphasizing stability and gradual rationalization rather than abrupt cuts [9][10]. 8. **Strategic Risks**: Ethane sourcing remains a strategic risk, with most ethane for ethylene production still imported from the U.S., raising tariff concerns [17]. Additional Important Insights - The anticipated wave of new capacity additions in ethylene is expected to peak in 2026, with significant additions in derivatives like polyethylene (PE) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) through 2029 [8][12]. - The restructuring of the propylene sector is driven by policy measures and market forces, focusing on technology upgrades and consolidation rather than new entrants [14][15]. - The crude oil to chemicals (CTC) projects remain uncertain, with potential delays but expected to yield significant olefins and aromatics if realized [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the evolving landscape of China's chemical industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Core Insights - Warren Buffett believes the market is currently overvalued, leading Berkshire Hathaway to adopt a cautious investment strategy [1][9] - Berkshire Hathaway has sold more stocks than it has purchased for twelve consecutive quarters, with $6.4 billion in purchases and $12.5 billion in sales during the latest quarter [1][9] - The company has not repurchased its own shares for five consecutive quarters, despite a significant drop in stock price [2][3] Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway's operating profit increased by 34% to $13.5 billion in the third quarter [6] - Underwriting earnings surged from $750 million to $2.4 billion due to fewer claims [7] - The Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad division's earnings rose nearly 5% to $1.45 billion, while the utility portfolio saw a nearly 9% decline to $1.49 billion [8] Cash Position - Berkshire Hathaway holds a record cash balance of $381.6 billion, attributed to the lack of equity purchases and stock repurchases [4][10] - The stock is currently trading at approximately 1.5 times book value, down from 1.8 times earlier this year [3]