You can find original article here WealthManagement. Subscribe to our free daily WealthManagement newsletters. How a Total Portfolio Approach Can Improve the 60/40 Portfolio “The appeal is straightforward. The goal isn’t to chase higher returns at all costs, but to build a portfolio that behaves more predictably when markets get rough. That kind of predictability matters because portfolios that hold up closer to expectations make it easier for investors to stay invested through tough periods, which is ofte ...

What do an employee at a dental imaging company, an English Premier League soccer player, and a saver with an account at BlackRock all have in common? They're all quietly connected to Wall Street's hottest investment class: private credit.The debt that most Americans have dealt with — from credit cards to mortgages — has been upfront: there are bills to pay, balances that are visible, and credit ratings that assess a borrower's creditworthiness. Private credit, or loans made to companies by private investor ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the private credit industry in 2025 Core Insights - Direct lending volume decreased in Q4 2025, marking it as the weakest quarter of the year with $56.6 billion across 189 deals, the lowest volume in two years and the lowest transaction count since Q3 2023 [4] - For the full year 2025, direct lending volume was estimated at $247 billion, down 11% from 2024, with 842 transactions, a 16% decrease from the previous year, yet it was the second-busiest year in at least eight years [4][12] - Buyout financing in Q4 2025 was estimated at $18.2 billion, down from $25.1 billion in Q3, with only 46 transactions, the lowest since Q3 2023 [4] - Private credit/middle-market CLO issuance reached a record of $43.1 billion for the year, despite a quarterly drop to $10.3 billion in Q4 [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests strengthening M&A activity and improved market sentiment, with expectations for higher transaction volumes [4] - Refinancing activity was robust, with $34.1 billion of direct-lender loans refinanced in the broadly syndicated loan market, an 18% increase from 2024 [4] - Credit spreads remained steady in Q4 2025, with a median of S+475, and 48% of buyout deals fell into the 450-499 bps range, up from 18% in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Direct Lending Volume & Counts - Q4 2025 saw a decline in direct lending volume and deal count, with the lowest figures recorded since Q3 2023 [4][8] - The annual direct lending volume for 2025 was $247 billion, down 11% from 2024, while the deal count decreased by 16% [12] Buyout Financing - Buyout financing volume reached $81.4 billion for the full year, the highest in at least eight years, despite a decline in deal count to 214 from 248 in 2024 [4] CLO Issuance - Private credit/middle-market CLO issuance set an annual record of $43.1 billion, although Q4 issuance fell to $10.3 billion [4] Market Outlook - The 2026 outlook indicates a strengthening M&A environment and increased transaction volumes, supported by stable financial markets and corporate focus on long-term growth [4] Refinancing Activity - Direct lenders refinanced $36.9 billion of syndicated loans, the highest level in four years, while $34.1 billion of direct-lender loans were refinanced in the syndicated market [4] Credit Spreads - Credit spreads in Q4 2025 held steady, with a median of S+475, and a significant portion of buyout deals fell within the 450-499 bps range [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investor interest in private credit remains strong despite warnings about looser loan approval practices and rising borrower stress [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The troubles at First Brands Group highlighted risks in private credit, showcasing aggressive debt structures built during years of easy financing [2] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that private credit risks are "hiding in plain sight," suggesting that issues may surface as economic conditions worsen [3] - Despite over $7 billion in withdrawals from major private credit firms like Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone, capital continues to flow into private credit funds [5] Group 2: Fundraising and Demand - KKR raised $2.5 billion for its Asia Credit Opportunities Fund II, while TPG closed over $6 billion for its third flagship Credit Solutions fund, exceeding its target [6] - Neuberger Berman's fifth flagship private debt fund closed at $7.3 billion, surpassing its original target due to strong demand from global institutional investors [7] - Granite Asia raised over $350 million for its first dedicated pan-Asia private credit strategy, indicating solid investor demand in the region [8] Group 3: Structural Forces - Demand for private credit is supported by persistent financing needs among middle-market companies and infrastructure developers, despite loosened underwriting standards [9] - Private credit has evolved into a multi-trillion-dollar market, becoming a core allocation for institutional investors like pension funds and insurers [10] - Regulatory reforms post-2008 financial crisis have led traditional banks to retreat from riskier loans, allowing private credit firms to fill the gap [13] Group 4: Signs of Strain - High interest rates have increased borrowing costs, with around 15% of borrowers unable to fully service interest payments [14] - Morningstar warned of deteriorating credit profiles among borrowers as higher interest rates impact balance sheets [15] - Concerns about leverage and borrower stress vary across regions, with U.S. and European markets showing more strain compared to the less saturated Asian market [16][17]

Key TakeawaysSyria's conflict intensifies with reports of the Damascus government violating agreements and attacking QSD fighters with tanks, while the Syrian Army advances on critical military airports.Private credit markets face significant headwinds as investors have pulled a substantial $7 billion from Wall Street's largest funds, indicating a potential shift in alternative investment strategies.Automakers are strategically targeting the US electric vehicle (EV) market with new models priced below $35,0 ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Ares Capital Corporation on R. Dennis’s Substack by OppCost. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ARCC. Ares Capital Corporation's share was trading at $20.48 as of January 13th. ARCC’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.31 and 10.73 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 15 biggest private equity firms in the world Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) stands out as a premier player in private credit, managing a $30+ billion portfolio across 587 companies ...

Core Insights - KKR has successfully completed a fundraising of US$2.5 billion for its Asia Private Credit Fund, indicating strong investor interest in private credit opportunities in the Asian market [1] Fundraising Details - The US$2.5 billion raised will be utilized to provide private credit solutions to companies across Asia, reflecting a growing demand for alternative financing options in the region [1] - This fundraising effort is part of KKR's broader strategy to expand its private credit platform in Asia, which has seen significant growth in recent years [1] Market Context - The completion of this fundraising comes at a time when traditional lending sources are tightening, making private credit an attractive option for businesses seeking capital [1] - KKR's Asia Private Credit Fund aims to capitalize on the increasing need for flexible financing solutions among Asian companies, particularly in sectors that are underserved by traditional banks [1]

Company Overview - Stewards Inc. (OTC: SWRD) is a diversified platform focusing on private credit, real assets, and digital finance, aiming for responsible growth through disciplined underwriting and technology-driven analytics [5] - The company provides scalable financing and structured credit solutions to small and mid-sized businesses across the United States, while also building a portfolio of income-producing real estate and digital treasury assets [5] Event Participation - Stewards Inc. will present at the Sequire Investor Summit 2026, scheduled for January 22-23, 2026, at the Condado Vanderbilt Hotel in San Juan, Puerto Rico [1] - The summit aims to connect funds, public companies, and investors for presentations and one-on-one meetings, facilitating direct engagement with the investment community [1][4] Strategic Insights - At the summit, Stewards Inc. plans to share insights into its strategy, governance framework, and long-term growth objectives, particularly in relation to its planned uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market [3] - The company emphasizes building a disciplined and resilient financial platform through its participation in the summit [4] Industry Context - Puerto Rico is becoming increasingly attractive for family offices, investment funds, and high-net-worth investors due to its favorable tax environment, which supports capital and investment activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are withdrawing significant amounts from private credit vehicles due to lower returns and concerns over credit quality in the $1.7 trillion asset class [1][3]. Withdrawal Trends - In the fourth quarter, investors in BDCs holding over $1 billion requested to withdraw more than $2.9 billion, a 200% increase from the previous period [2]. - Despite the withdrawal requests, many funds are still attracting more cash than they are losing, with fund managers honoring all redemption requests [2]. Investor Sentiment - The increase in withdrawals indicates a decline in sentiment towards private credit, driven by fears of lower returns and rising stress signs [3]. - The current environment is seen as a significant test for the non-institutional client base of many funds since the onset of COVID-19 [3]. Specific Fund Performance - Blackstone's BCRED saw withdrawal requests of about $2.1 billion, approximately 4.5% of its net assets [4]. - Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. allowed withdrawals of up to 17% of its net assets, totaling about $685 million [5]. - Ares' non-traded BDC experienced redemption requests exceeding 5% of its net assets in the fourth quarter [6]. Historical Context - Historically, redemption rates have been around 2% of a fund's net assets, indicating the current surge is notable [6]. - Blue Owl, Ares, and Blackstone reported record fundraising for private wealth products last year, with minimal losses reported across non-traded vehicles [9]. Market Dynamics - Concerns are rising regarding underwriting quality and covenant standards, prompting investors to seek liquidity and reallocate their investments [11]. - If redemption requests persist at around 5%, non-traded BDCs could face approximately $45 billion in net outflows annually, although managers are expected to manage these redemptions effectively [12]. Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly cautious about "shadow defaults" in private credit, leading to a reevaluation of capital allocation strategies [14]. - There is a trend of reallocating capital from corporate direct lending to larger direct lending funds [14]. Future Outlook - Expectations indicate that flows into non-traded BDCs may slow as investors seek discounts on publicly traded vehicles [15]. - Firms are under pressure to find deals to deploy raised capital, which has been challenging due to a lack of mergers and acquisitions [16]. - Some funds have raised so much capital that they struggle to find enough loans to deploy, resulting in a significant portion of their portfolios being allocated to bank-syndicated loans [17].

Core Viewpoint - MidCap Financial has announced the signing of approximately $3.1 billion in senior unsecured notes and junior subordinated notes, marking a transformative milestone that enhances its balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, with an expected improvement in its Senior Unsecured credit rating to investment grade status [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Impact - The issuance of notes is expected to significantly improve MidCap's credit profile, expanding access to capital markets and reinforcing its ability to serve around 600 borrowers [2]. - The transaction diversifies funding sources, extends liability duration, and is anticipated to lower the cost of capital over time, enhancing competitive positioning and supporting growth across lending platforms [2][3]. Group 2: Management Statements - David Moore, Co-Founder and Vice Chairman, stated that this transaction fundamentally reshapes the balance sheet and accelerates the evolution into an investment-grade institution, validating the business model and long-term growth strategy [3]. - CEO Josh Groman emphasized that this inaugural investment-grade financing will fuel continued expansion as a leading diversified private credit platform, highlighting the team's achievements leading to this milestone [3]. Group 3: Financial Policies - MidCap is committed to a conservative financial policy, targeting an adjusted net leverage ratio below 2.5x, net secured debt to total assets below 30%, and net senior unsecured leverage below 1.5x, while maintaining at least $2 billion in liquidity [4]. Group 4: Company Overview - MidCap Financial is a middle-market focused specialty finance firm providing senior debt solutions across all industries, managing over $62 billion in commitments as of December 31, 2025 [5]. - The firm is managed by Apollo Capital Management, a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, which had approximately $908 billion in assets under management as of September 30, 2025 [5].