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Beware Targeted IRRs: Public REITs Consistently Beat Private
Seeking Alpha· 2026-03-17 22:33
Core Insights - Publicly listed REITs have averaged returns of 9.72% from 1998 to 2023, outperforming private equity real estate funds, which averaged 7.79% during the same period [4][33]. - Private equity real estate funds often claim targeted returns of 15%, but actual returns are significantly lower, raising concerns about the realism of these targets [4][29]. - Public REITs benefit from lower overhead costs, more effective asset management, and the flexibility of being perpetual life vehicles, which allows for opportunistic buying and selling [38][40]. Performance Comparison - Publicly listed REITs have consistently outperformed private equity real estate funds, with a return difference of approximately 1.93% [35][41]. - The average targeted internal rates of return (IRRs) for private equity funds are between 14% and 17.9%, but actual returns fall short [2][4]. - Public REITs are currently trading about 15% below net asset value (NAV), providing a discount for investors compared to private equity funds, which are sold at or above NAV [42]. Leverage and Risk - Private equity funds often use excessive leverage to achieve high targeted returns, which can lead to increased risk and potential failure conditions [6][12]. - The relationship between leverage and return on equity (ROE) is exponential; higher leverage can significantly increase ROE but also introduces substantial risk [9][12]. - Negative leverage occurs when the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate, which has affected many developments initiated in a low-interest-rate environment [22][23]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider the underlying asset class and the feasibility of achieving high targeted IRRs when evaluating private equity real estate funds [30][29]. - Public REITs, such as the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (VNQ), offer a low-cost entry point into real estate investment with minimal fees [43]. - The effective management of assets and lower fees associated with public REITs contribute to their superior performance compared to private equity real estate funds [38][41].