Michael Burry, the investor who famously called the 2008 financial crisis, has quietly added an unusual pick to his portfolio that has nothing to do with tech or healthcare. Scion Asset Management disclosed a new position in SLM Corporation (SLM), better known as Sallie Mae, the student loan giant that has been flying under the radar while most investors chase AI stocks. The timing is notable given the ongoing debates around student debt relief and higher education costs in America. Sallie Mae specializes ...

Core Insights - The private markets are increasingly becoming accessible to the public, with asset managers exploring ways to package private assets into retirement accounts like 401(k)s [6][7][8] - Major banks reported strong earnings, with Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America being standout performers due to a robust IPO and M&A market [1][2][3] - Investment banking activity is experiencing significant growth, with M&A deal values in September up over 110% year-over-year and a 239% increase in Q3 compared to the previous year [2][3] Banking Sector Performance - All major banks exceeded earnings expectations, with notable growth in investment banking fees, particularly for Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, which saw increases of 43% and 44% year-over-year respectively [1][2] - Wells Fargo's stock rose 10% post-earnings, with management projecting 17-18% returns on tangible common equity, a revision from previous estimates [1][3] - Bank of America reported a surprising decline in credit loss provisions, indicating a positive outlook for the bank's financial health [1][3] Investment Banking Trends - The investment banking market is described as "red hot," with significant increases in M&A activity and IPOs anticipated as market conditions improve [2][3] - JP Morgan's CFO noted that there are IPO deals ready to launch, reflecting a favorable environment for investment banking [2] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism for the next 3-5 years in the investment banking sector, indicating a sustained positive trend [2] Private Credit Concerns - Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan raised concerns about the state of private credit, particularly in light of recent bankruptcies among private companies [3][4] - There is a perceived fragility in the current economic environment, contrasting with the strong performance reported by banks [4] - The auto lending industry, especially subprime loans, is viewed as a potential risk area, warranting close monitoring [4] Private Assets in Retirement Accounts - The trend of making private assets available in retirement accounts is gaining traction, with potential benefits and risks for individual investors [6][7][8] - There are concerns about high fees associated with private asset investments, which could undermine the advantages of increased investment choices [6][7] - The discussion around deregulation and access to private assets highlights the need for investor education to mitigate risks [7][8] Company Highlights - TripAdvisor is highlighted for its potential value, particularly through its brand Viator, which could be worth more than TripAdvisor's current market cap if spun off [12] - Empire State Realty Trust is noted for its strong performance and potential undervaluation in the New York City office market [13] - SLM Corp (Sallie Mae) is recognized for its solid credit quality in student loans, presenting a hidden investment opportunity [14]

Core Viewpoint - Sallie Mae (SLM) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Sallie Mae's quarterly earnings is $0.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 55.9%. Revenues are projected to be $375.13 million, which is a 0.8% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 19.04% higher, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Sallie Mae is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.47%. This indicates a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Sallie Mae was expected to post earnings of $1.19 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of $1.40, resulting in a surprise of +17.65%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, Sallie Mae does not appear to be a compelling candidate for such an outcome, and investors should consider other factors when making investment decisions [17].

Core Viewpoint - Sallie Mae (SLM) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, particularly influenced by institutional investors [4][6]. - For Sallie Mae, the recent increase in earnings estimates suggests an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to a higher stock price [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - Sallie Mae is projected to earn $3.12 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 1.6% over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, with only the top 20% of stocks receiving a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating, indicating superior potential for market-beating returns [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Sallie Mae (SLM) shares have recently declined by 5.5% over the past two weeks, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests potential support and a possible trend reversal in the future [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a potential bottoming out, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting [2][5]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, typically occurring during a downtrend, signaling that bears may be losing control [4][5]. - The success of bulls in preventing further price declines indicates a potential trend reversal when the hammer pattern appears at the bottom of a downtrend [5]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for SLM are viewed as a bullish indicator, correlating strongly with near-term stock price movements [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 0.1% over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' agreement on improved earnings potential [8]. - SLM holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9][10].

Summary of SLM (Sallie Mae) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sallie Mae (SLM) - **Event**: 2025 Conference held on June 10, 2025 Key Points Company Evolution and Strategy - Sallie Mae has adopted a hybrid growth and capital return strategy, aiming for modest balance sheet growth post-CECL phase, with a target of mid- to high single-digit organic earnings growth and double-digit earnings per share growth over time [4][6] - In 2024, Sallie Mae achieved a 10% year-over-year growth in originations, exceeding initial expectations, and grew the balance sheet by approximately 3% [5][6] - The company exited a low-yielding legacy portfolio, resulting in a more significant growth in the PSL balance, estimated at around 5% [6] Federal Student Loan Reform - Anticipation of federal student loan reform is high, with expectations for meaningful changes that could impact the private lending market [9][30] - Sallie Mae believes that the current federal program allows excessive borrowing without proper underwriting, leading to unsustainable debt levels for students [9] - The company is preparing for potential reforms and is optimistic about the opportunities they may present [9][30] Competitive Landscape - Sallie Mae maintains a competitive edge with over 2,000 college relationships across the U.S., which is expected to continue benefiting both undergraduate and graduate loan segments [12] - The graduate loan market is currently limited, primarily due to competition from the federal PLUS program, which offers unlimited borrowing without underwriting [16][22] Credit Quality and Underwriting - The credit profile of graduate borrowers is generally stronger than that of undergraduates, as they typically have established credit histories [12][18] - Sallie Mae follows a risk-based pricing methodology and expects to maintain a low annualized net charge-off rate in the high ones to low 2% range [19][37] - Recent changes in underwriting practices are expected to yield benefits over time, particularly as newer cohorts enter repayment [45][46] Capital Markets and Loan Sales - Sallie Mae executed a $2 billion loan sale earlier in the year, achieving strong execution with nearly 10% returns [21] - The company plans to continue its loan sale strategy, which has been critical for managing balance sheet size and capital [22][25] - Market conditions have changed, leading to increased uncertainty, but there remains broad demand for the asset class [25] Strategic Priorities - The company has outlined four key strategic priorities: executing the core strategy, preparing for federal reform, exploring alternative funding sources, and optimizing education services to create additional revenue streams [30][52] - Sallie Mae is committed to meeting its guidance for the year and exceeding its five-year framework, with a focus on operational readiness for potential reforms [51][52] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company is observing trends in the education market, including a shift towards nontraditional education programs, which are being evaluated for their return on investment [48][49] - Sallie Mae is optimistic about the potential for growth in the graduate loan market and the overall education financing landscape as reforms are anticipated [30][49] Additional Insights - The company has a low exposure to international students, as its programs require borrowers or cosigners to be U.S. citizens or legal residents [20] - The management is focused on creating a more resilient capital structure that is less dependent on market conditions, which could enhance earnings stability [31][52]