Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The yield on the 10-year treasury is expected to remain in the low-to-mid 4% range in 2025, with the FOMC on track to reduce interest rates by approximately 2% over time, suggesting a similar decline in bond yields [1] Group 2: High-Yield Stocks - Mid-2025 is identified as an opportune time to invest in high-yield stocks, with companies like Verizon, Stanley Black & Decker, J.M. Smucker, and PepsiCo trading near historically low valuations and offering yields of at least 4% [2] - Verizon's dividend yield is projected to be 6.5% in mid-2025, supported by a mid-single-digit equity gain and a modest single-digit growth pace expected in 2025 [4][5] - Stanley Black & Decker's shares have hit a decade low, presenting a generational buying opportunity, with a dividend yield of 4.42% and a strong dividend increase track record of 58 years [7] - J.M. Smucker Company has a dividend yield of 3.96%, with a solid balance sheet and a share price expected to rebound strongly in the latter half of the year [10][12] - PepsiCo's dividend yield is substantial at 3.91%, with a diversified growth strategy that has allowed it to maintain a healthy balance sheet while covering capital returns [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Stanley Black & Decker due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.38 per share, reflecting a decline of 65.1% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $3.99 billion, down 0.9% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.5% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Stanley Black & Decker is higher than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +18.80%, indicating a likely earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Stanley Black & Decker exceeded the expected earnings of $0.68 per share by delivering $0.75, achieving a surprise of +10.29%. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [12][13]. Investment Considerations - While the potential for an earnings beat exists, other factors may influence stock performance, making it essential to consider the broader context beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Core Insights - Snap-On Inc. reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 results, with net sales of $1.179 billion, a flat year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.16 billion. EPS for the quarter was $4.72, down from $5.07 YoY, but above the consensus of $4.67 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly net sales reached $1.179 billion, flat year-over-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.16 billion [1]. - EPS for the quarter was $4.72, down from $5.07 YoY, but above the consensus estimate of $4.67 [1]. Management Commentary - The CEO expressed encouragement regarding the second-quarter results, highlighting the return of sales growth in the U.S. Tools Group and resilient gross margins despite ongoing uncertainties and trade turbulence [2]. - The company is focusing on product development and marketing to align with customer preferences, aiming to regain positive momentum [2]. Future Outlook - Snap-On anticipates continued growth in 2025, expanding its professional customer base in automotive repair and adjacent markets, with projected capital expenditures of $100 million [2]. - The company expects a full-year 2025 effective income tax rate between 22% and 23% [2]. Stock Performance - Snap-On shares gained 7.9% to close at $337.80 following the earnings announcement [3]. - Analysts have adjusted their price targets post-earnings, with Baird maintaining a Neutral rating and raising the target from $329 to $347, while B of A Securities maintained an Underperform rating and raised the target from $265 to $285 [3][8].

Core Insights - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, with projected revenues of $2.16 billion, reflecting a 4.1% year-over-year growth [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $2.44, indicating a 10.9% increase from the previous year [2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG's second-quarter revenues is $2.16 billion, showing a 4.1% growth compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The earnings estimate has increased by 0.4% over the past 60 days, with the current EPS estimate at $2.44 [2] - The Packaging segment is expected to generate revenues of $1.99 billion, representing a 4.2% increase year-over-year [7] Performance Metrics - PKG's earnings surprise history shows that the company has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.4% [3][4] - The company is projected to see a 2.7% increase in packaging volume, while the Paper segment is expected to experience a 6.9% decline in revenues [6][8] Segment Analysis - The Paper segment is anticipated to report revenues of $140 million, down 6.9% year-over-year, but with a significant 75% increase in operating income to $46 million due to better pricing and mix [8] - The Packaging segment's operating income is estimated to be $291 million, reflecting a 4% growth from the prior year [7] Stock Performance - Over the past year, PKG shares have increased by 7.7%, outperforming the industry average decline of 7.1% [9]

Core Insights - Snap-on Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 results with earnings and revenues exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, although earnings declined 3.9% year-over-year and revenues remained flat compared to the prior year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share were $4.72, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61, but down from $4.91 in the same quarter last year [3]. - Net sales reached $1.179 billion, flat year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.154 billion, with an organic sales decline of 0.7% offset by favorable foreign currency translation [3]. - Gross profit was $595.5 million, a decrease of 0.3% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 50.5%, down 10 basis points from the previous year [4]. - Operating earnings before financial services totaled $259.1 million, down 7.6% year-over-year, with operating earnings as a percentage of sales contracting to 22% [5]. - Consolidated operating earnings, including financial services, were $327.3 million, down 6.6% year-over-year, with operating earnings as a percentage of sales contracting to 25.5% [6]. Segment Analysis - Sales in the Commercial & Industrial Group decreased 6.5% year-over-year to $347.8 million, primarily due to weaker performance in Asia Pacific and Europe [7]. - The Tools Group segment saw sales increase by 1.9% year-over-year to $491 million, driven by stronger demand in the U.S. [8]. - Sales in the Repair Systems & Information Group improved 3% year-over-year to $468.6 million, supported by increased activity with OEM dealerships [9]. - The Financial Services business reported a revenue increase of 1.2% year-over-year to $101.7 million [10]. Financial Position - As of the end of the second quarter 2025, Snap-on had cash and cash equivalents of $1.46 billion and shareholders' equity of $5.7 billion [11]. - The company anticipates capital expenditures of $100 million for the full year 2025 [11]. Future Outlook - Management expects resilience in markets and operations against uncertainties, aiming to advance core growth strategies and expand into new markets and industries [12]. - The effective tax rate is projected to be between 22-23% for 2025 [12].

Consolidated Results - Net sales remained unchanged at $1,179.4 million, with a 0.7% organic sales decline offset by a 0.7% favorable currency translation[10] - Gross profit was $595.5 million, representing a gross margin of 50.5%, a decrease of 10 bps from the previous year's 50.6%[10] - Operating earnings were $327.3 million, resulting in an operating margin of 25.5%, a decrease from 27.4% in the prior year[10] - Diluted EPS decreased by 6.9% to $4.72[10] Segment Performance - **Commercial & Industrial:** Sales decreased by 6.5% to $347.8 million, with a 7.6% organic sales decline[11] - **Snap-on Tools:** Sales increased by 1.9% to $491.0 million, driven by a 1.6% organic sales increase[12] - **Repair Systems & Information:** Sales increased by 3.0% to $468.6 million, with a 2.3% organic sales gain[13] - **Financial Services:** Revenue increased by 1.2% to $101.7 million, while operating earnings decreased by 2.8%[14] Financial Position - Gross finance portfolio totaled $2,540.8 million[15] - Net debt was $(254.6) million, resulting in a net debt to capital ratio of (4.7)%[17] Cash Flow - Net cash provided by operating activities was $237.2 million[16] - Free cash flow was $191.1 million[16]

Investor Presentation V e r s i o n 5 . 1 3 . 2 0 2 4 Contents | | . | | --- | --- | | | . | | | . | | | . | | | . | | | . | | Contacts | | --- | Dennis Lange Vice President, Investor Relations 860-827-3833 dennis.lange@sbdinc.com Christina Francis Director, Investor Relations 860-438-3470 christina.francis@sbdinc.com Christopher Capela Director, Investor Relations 860-827-5556 christopher.capela@sbdinc.com 1000 Stanley Drive New Britain, CT 06053 investorrelations@sbdinc.com | SWK Overview | Pages 4 – | 13 ...

Investor Presentation V e r s i o n 8 . 9 . 2 0 2 4 Contents | SWK Overview | Pages 4 – | 13 | | --- | --- | --- | | Tools & Outdoor | Pages 14 – | 23 | | Industrial | Pages 24 – | 28 | | Appendix | Pages 29 – | 36 | Contacts Dennis Lange Vice President, Investor Relations 860-827-3833 dennis.lange@sbdinc.com Christina Francis Director, Investor Relations 860-438-3470 christina.francis@sbdinc.com Christopher Capela Director, Investor Relations 860-827-5556 christopher.capela@sbdinc.com 1000 Stanley Drive Ne ...

Core Insights - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) has underperformed in operational performance, facing challenges from business weaknesses, high debt, and rising operational expenses [1][8]. Group 1: Business Performance - The company is experiencing significant weakness in its Engineered Fastening segment, particularly in the automotive market, leading to a 20.7% year-over-year revenue decline to $463.7 million in Q1 2025 [3][8]. - The divestiture of the infrastructure business has negatively impacted sales in the Engineered Fastening segment, although there is some strength in aerospace and general industrial markets [3]. Group 2: Cost and Expenses - Stanley Black & Decker is facing escalating costs, with SG&A expenses rising 1.8% year-over-year to $867 million, and as a percentage of net sales, it increased by 120 basis points to 23.2% [4]. - The cost of sales also increased, up 130 basis points to 29.9% of net sales, indicating pressure on margins and profitability [4]. Group 3: Financial Position - The company's long-term debt stands at $4.8 billion, with current maturities totaling $849.4 million, raising concerns about financial obligations and profitability [9]. - Cash and cash equivalents are low at $344.8 million, which is not sufficient given the high debt levels [9]. Group 4: Market Impact - Foreign currency translation negatively impacted revenues by 2% in Q1 2025, highlighting the risks associated with global operations [10]. - Earnings estimates have been revised down significantly, with the 2025 consensus estimate dropping from $5.14 to $4.36 per share due to seven downward revisions [11].

Company Performance - Stanley Black & Decker reported positive results in Q1, highlighting organic year-over-year growth and margin expansion [5] - The company achieved above-market growth for DEWALT for another consecutive quarter, indicating strong brand performance [5] - The transformation process is on track for completion by the end of the year, establishing a solid foundation for future growth [5] Conference Context - The discussion took place at the Wolfe Research 18th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference, transitioning from a focus on transportation to industrial topics [1] - Chris Nelson, COO, and Dennis Lange, Head of Investor Relations, represented Stanley Black & Decker during the conference [2]