Core Viewpoint - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. is expected to report a decline in first-quarter revenues while showing an increase in adjusted earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenues is $3.73 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.6% year-over-year [1]. - The Tools & Outdoor segment is anticipated to generate revenues of $3.2 billion, down 2% year-over-year, influenced by strong performance in the Engineered Fastening business but offset by weakness in the DIY market and power tool demand [3]. - The Industrial segment is expected to see revenues decline by 16% year-over-year to $489.3 million, impacted by softness in the automotive market and the divestiture of the infrastructure business [4]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings is 68 cents per share, indicating a 21.4% increase from the previous year [1]. - The earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 30 days, with the company having a history of outperforming consensus estimates in the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 16.2% [2]. Margin Performance - The company is expected to benefit from a cost-reduction program, with an anticipated adjusted gross margin of 30.5%, representing an expansion of 150 basis points year-over-year [5]. Foreign Exchange Impact - The company's operations are subject to foreign exchange headwinds, with a stronger U.S. dollar likely affecting overseas business performance [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -3.02%, suggesting that the odds of an earnings beat are low this time [7][8].

Group 1: Company Performance - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) is experiencing strong performance in the Tools & Outdoor segment, with organic revenues increasing by 3% to $3.2 billion in Q4 2024, driven by the DEWALT business and a solid holiday season [1] - The Industrial segment, however, faced challenges, with revenues declining by 15.4% year over year to $492.9 million due to softness in the automotive end market and constrained capital expenditure [6] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Profitability - The company is implementing a multi-year global cost-reduction program aimed at achieving pre-tax run-rate cost savings of $2 billion by the end of 2025, with a long-term adjusted gross margin target of over 35% [2] - Of the $2 billion savings, $1.5 billion is expected to come from four core supply-chain transformation initiatives [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - In 2024, the company paid out $491.2 million in dividends, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.8%, and repurchased shares worth $17.7 million [3] - The quarterly dividend was increased by a penny to 82 cents per share in July 2024 [3] Group 4: Financial Health - The company has a highly leveraged balance sheet, with long-term debt at $5.6 billion and current maturities of long-term debt totaling $500.4 million as of the end of 2024 [7] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $290.5 million, which is considered low given the high debt level [7]