Labor data sources not affiliated with the government have become invaluable this year. The White House recently announced that there will likely be no October Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report due to the government shutdown, and the previously reported blowout positive September data have been called into question. Largest private U.S. employers: Walmart: 1.6 million employees Amazon: 1.1 million employees UPS: 443,000 employees Target: 427,346 employees Home Depot: 418,000 employees Source: R ...

Core Message - The IMF World Bank annual meetings highlight that geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly due to trade tariffs, is impacting global growth [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The current effective tariff rate from the US is slightly under 20%, down from an earlier projection of around 25%, indicating some adaptation in the private sector [4][3]. - Growth projections for 2025 remain stable at 3.2%, with a slight expected slowdown to 3.1% next year, supported by strong tech investments and accommodating financial conditions [5]. Trade Relations - Ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and China, pose risks to the global economy, with potential declines in global output by 0.3% if tensions escalate [6][7]. - The need for clear and transparent trade agreements is emphasized to restore stability and allow businesses to plan effectively [7][11]. Regional Perspectives - Australia advocates for more trade rather than trade barriers, expressing concerns about the global economic impact of current trade tensions [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies is seen as detrimental to economic stability, with no clear winners in the ongoing trade disputes [15][16]. Data Interpretation Challenges - Current trade data is volatile, making it difficult to assess the full impact of trade conflicts, with some effects potentially delayed [17][19]. - The first quarter saw significant import frontloading in anticipation of tariffs, complicating the interpretation of trade figures [20][21].

Core Points - Swiss efforts to secure a more favorable trade relationship with the U.S. are ongoing [1] - Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter made the statement following a meeting between Swiss corporate leaders and U.S. President Donald Trump [1] Summary by Category Trade Relations - Switzerland is actively working to improve its trade relationship with the United States [1] - The discussions are part of broader efforts to enhance economic ties between the two countries [1] Government Actions - Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter is leading the initiatives to strengthen trade relations [1] - The recent meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump involved Swiss corporate executives, indicating high-level engagement [1]

Core Insights - The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking a recovery from a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, with the trade, transportation, and utilities industry leading the growth [1][2] - Job growth was modest compared to earlier in the year, with ADP Chief Economist noting that this was the first job addition since July [2] - Year-over-year pay growth remained flat, with job-stayers seeing a 4.5% increase and job-changers at 6.7%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Industry Performance - Five industries added jobs in October: - Trade, transportation, and utilities: +47,000 jobs - Education and health services: +26,000 jobs - Financial activities: +11,000 jobs - Natural resources and mining: +7,000 jobs - Construction: +5,000 jobs [6] - Five industries experienced job losses: - Information: -17,000 jobs - Professional and business services: -15,000 jobs - Other services: -13,000 jobs - Leisure and hospitality: -6,000 jobs - Manufacturing: -3,000 jobs [6] Establishment Size Impact - Only large establishments (500 or more employees) added jobs, contributing 73,000 jobs - Small businesses (1-49 employees) cut 10,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-499 employees) reduced their workforce by 21,000 [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 37,500 jobs, marking a recovery from the 29,000 jobs lost in September [3][6][11] - The job growth is primarily driven by the services sector, particularly trade, transportation, and utilities, which added 47,000 jobs, while education and healthcare contributed an additional 26,000 jobs [6][7] - Despite the positive job additions, the overall employment conditions remain weak, with declines in sectors such as professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality [8][9] Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicates that private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, a significant rebound from the previous month [3][6] - Wage growth for employees who remained in the same position increased by 4.5% year-over-year, while those changing jobs saw a 6.7% increase in October [6][10] - The goods-producing sector added approximately 9,000 jobs, led by natural resources and mining, but manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs [9] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main contributor to job growth, with notable gains in trade, transportation, and utilities, marking the strongest performance since February 2023 [7] - The leisure and hospitality sector experienced a concerning decline, shedding 6,000 jobs, which raises questions about consumer health and spending resilience [8] - Large companies (250+ employees) added 76,000 jobs, while small and midsize businesses (less than 250 employees) lost around 35,000 jobs [9] Economic Context - The ADP report has gained importance due to the government shutdown affecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' ability to release employment data [4][5] - The current labor market data suggests stabilization but lacks significant momentum, which may influence Federal Reserve policymakers to consider interest rate cuts in December [5][7]

We are getting some numbers that are pretty important right now. We're going to be looking at the ADP private payroll data. It's just out.Steve Leeman joins us with those numbers. >> Numbers. What a what a what a thought.Fantastic. ADP saying that private payrolls grew by 42,000 in the month of October. Uh with a decent split when it comes to by sector.Goods producing up 9,000, service providing up 33,000. This is a question. Is this the new normal we have to get used to.Is a relatively lackluster number th ...

Group 1 - Private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding economists' estimates of 28,000 jobs [1] - Previous month's payrolls were revised from a loss of 32,000 to a loss of 29,000 [1] - Job creation in October marked the first increase since July, although hiring remains modest compared to earlier this year [2] Group 2 - Trade, transportation, and utilities led job creation with an addition of 47,000 positions [2] - Education and health services added 25,000 jobs, financial activities added 11,000, natural resources and mining contributed 7,000, and construction added 5,000 [2] Group 3 - Information sector lost 17,000 positions, professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, and other services lost 14,000 [3] - Leisure and hospitality lost 5,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 3,000 [3] Group 4 - Pay growth has remained largely flat for over a year, indicating a balance in supply and demand [2]

Trade Policy Concerns - NFTC urges the Trump administration to immediately suspend the "affiliate rule" [1] - The rule has caused billions of US dollars in US exports to stall [1] - The rule may prompt China and other countries to exclude US companies from their supply chains [1] - The rule contradicts Trump's desire to reduce trade deficits and expand US exports [1] Regulatory Impact - The "affiliate rule" prohibits US companies from exporting goods and technology to companies partially owned by sanctioned entities [1] Government Response - The White House and the US Department of Commerce have not responded to requests for comment [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant achievements of China's economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing its resilience and contributions to global economic growth [1][3]. Economic Growth - Over the past five years, China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, surpassing the global average [3]. - China's contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30% annually, establishing it as a stable anchor for the world economy [3]. Innovation - National R&D investment has increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with R&D intensity approaching the OECD average [4]. - China ranks 10th in the global innovation index and has maintained the largest number of R&D personnel in the world for several years [4]. Industrial Transformation - The manufacturing sector is projected to contribute an additional 8 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," maintaining over 30% of global manufacturing growth [5]. - China continues to lead in the production of over 220 major industrial products, with significant advancements in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [5]. Green Development - China has made substantial progress in environmental quality, with the fastest improvement in air quality and the largest increase in forest resources globally [6]. - By mid-2025, the installed capacity of renewable energy has surpassed that of coal, with 368.9 million new energy vehicles and nearly 16.7 million charging facilities, both ranking first in the world [6]. Trade and Global Cooperation - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's goods trade volume has remained the largest globally, with service trade expected to exceed 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024 [8]. - High-tech products account for nearly 20% of exports, with significant growth in electronic information and high-end equipment sectors [8]. Infrastructure Development - China has established the world's largest networks of highways, high-speed rail, and ports, while also rapidly expanding new infrastructure in computing and smart cities [9]. - The computing power scale has grown at an annual rate of 30% over the past five years, with major nodes accounting for about 70% of the national total [9]. Agricultural Strength - China has achieved 21 consecutive years of grain production growth, with a target of 1.4 trillion jin by 2024, ensuring food security [10]. - The country has built over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland, with a mechanization rate exceeding 74% for major crops [10]. Social Welfare - By mid-2025, the per capita disposable income reached 21,840 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 5.3% [11]. - China has developed the largest education, social security, and healthcare systems globally, with a basic pension insurance coverage exceeding 95% [11].

Japan’s economy likely contracted in the third quarter after five consecutive periods of growth, as US President Trump’s tariffs campaign took a toll on exports, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists https://t.co/nB3jYfSx5L ...