Group 1 - Private sector job creation in January was only 22,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 48,000 jobs [1] - The previous month's job gain was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000 [1] - In 2025, private employers added 398,000 jobs, a decrease from 771,000 in 2024, indicating a continuous slowdown in job creation over the past three years [2] Group 2 - Education and health services led job creation in December with an addition of 74,000 positions, followed by financial activities with 14,000 and construction with 9,000 [2] - Leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation, and utilities each added 4,000 jobs, while hiring in natural resources and mining remained flat [3] - Professional and business services experienced a loss of 57,000 jobs, with other services and manufacturing losing 13,000 and 8,000 jobs respectively [3] Group 3 - Wage growth in December remained stable, with pay for those staying in their roles increasing by 4.5% year-over-year, while pay gains for job changers slightly decreased to 6.4% from 6.6% [4]

For the Class of 2026, a stable but selective job market means employers are hiring carefully and expecting new graduates to add value quickly The job market awaiting the Class of 2026 isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t exactly roaring back either. According to Universum’s 2026 Talent Outlook report released last week, 16% of global companies expect to reduce staffing levels in the first quarter while 16% expect to hire more. Another 40% expect to keep about the same level of workers and 4% are unsure. “It ...

Group 1 - Private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, below economists' estimates of 47,000 jobs [1] - Previous month's payrolls revised to a loss of 29,000 from an initial loss of 32,000 [1] - Small establishments showed positive hiring at year-end, while large employers reduced hiring [1] Group 2 - Education and health services led job creation with 39,000 positions added in December [2] - Leisure and hospitality added 24,000 positions, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 11,000 [2] - Professional and business services lost 29,000 jobs, with information and manufacturing losing 12,000 and 5,000 positions respectively [2] Group 3 - Large businesses (500 or more employees) added 2,000 jobs, while businesses with 50 to 499 employees added 34,000 [3] - Establishments with fewer than 50 employees added 9,000 jobs [3] - Wage growth remained stable, with pay for those staying in their roles increasing by 4.4% year-over-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Construction Plan Outline" emphasizes the importance of building an inland open strategic highland to enhance international competitiveness and create a new pattern of opening up that integrates land and sea, as well as east and west [1] Group 1: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The outline highlights the significance of "opening up" in the construction of the economic circle, with Chapter 9 dedicated to creating an inland reform and opening highland, indicating its priority [2] - Chengdu and Chongqing have launched the "China-Europe Railway Express (Chengdu-Chongqing)" service, which has accounted for 30% of the national total this year, showcasing the collaborative efforts in logistics and transportation [2] - Future plans include enhancing the connectivity of the economic circle through the development of a world-class airport cluster and improving customs and port facilities [3] Group 2: Economic Development and International Competitiveness - The economic circle, with a GDP of approximately 6.3 trillion yuan, is positioned at the intersection of the "Belt and Road" and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, making it a strategic hub for international competition [4] - The outline proposes the establishment of a collaborative open demonstration zone for the Sichuan-Chongqing Free Trade Zone, focusing on innovative and differentiated reforms in various sectors such as finance, technology, and trade [5] - The plan aims to create a first-class business environment by enhancing market systems and utilizing technologies like big data and blockchain to streamline regulatory processes [6] Group 3: Collaborative Initiatives - Sichuan and Chongqing have signed strategic cooperation agreements to accelerate the development of eight industrial alliances, fostering collaboration in innovation, industry, and governance [5] - The outline includes plans for building an international technology transfer center as part of the "Belt and Road" initiative, focusing on leveraging regional advantages in key industries [6]

Labor Market Overview - The White House announced the likely absence of the October Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report due to a government shutdown, casting doubt on the previously reported strong September data [1] - The ADP private sector jobs report, based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million U.S. private-sector employees, is a trusted non-government source for labor data [3] Job Losses and Sector Performance - Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, with significant losses in construction, manufacturing, professional/business services, and information services [5] - Job declines were uneven across sectors, with construction losing 9,000 jobs, manufacturing losing 18,000, and professional/business services losing 26,000, while natural resources and mining added 8,000 jobs [7] Regional Job Trends - The Northeast and South experienced steep job losses, with New England laying off 50,000, the Mid-Atlantic cutting 49,000, and the South Atlantic losing nearly 80,000 jobs; in contrast, the Midwest and West reported job gains of 45,000 and 67,000, respectively [9]

Core Message - The IMF World Bank annual meetings highlight that geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly due to trade tariffs, is impacting global growth [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The current effective tariff rate from the US is slightly under 20%, down from an earlier projection of around 25%, indicating some adaptation in the private sector [4][3]. - Growth projections for 2025 remain stable at 3.2%, with a slight expected slowdown to 3.1% next year, supported by strong tech investments and accommodating financial conditions [5]. Trade Relations - Ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and China, pose risks to the global economy, with potential declines in global output by 0.3% if tensions escalate [6][7]. - The need for clear and transparent trade agreements is emphasized to restore stability and allow businesses to plan effectively [7][11]. Regional Perspectives - Australia advocates for more trade rather than trade barriers, expressing concerns about the global economic impact of current trade tensions [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies is seen as detrimental to economic stability, with no clear winners in the ongoing trade disputes [15][16]. Data Interpretation Challenges - Current trade data is volatile, making it difficult to assess the full impact of trade conflicts, with some effects potentially delayed [17][19]. - The first quarter saw significant import frontloading in anticipation of tariffs, complicating the interpretation of trade figures [20][21].

Core Points - Swiss efforts to secure a more favorable trade relationship with the U.S. are ongoing [1] - Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter made the statement following a meeting between Swiss corporate leaders and U.S. President Donald Trump [1] Summary by Category Trade Relations - Switzerland is actively working to improve its trade relationship with the United States [1] - The discussions are part of broader efforts to enhance economic ties between the two countries [1] Government Actions - Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter is leading the initiatives to strengthen trade relations [1] - The recent meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump involved Swiss corporate executives, indicating high-level engagement [1]

Core Insights - The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking a recovery from a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, with the trade, transportation, and utilities industry leading the growth [1][2] - Job growth was modest compared to earlier in the year, with ADP Chief Economist noting that this was the first job addition since July [2] - Year-over-year pay growth remained flat, with job-stayers seeing a 4.5% increase and job-changers at 6.7%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Industry Performance - Five industries added jobs in October: - Trade, transportation, and utilities: +47,000 jobs - Education and health services: +26,000 jobs - Financial activities: +11,000 jobs - Natural resources and mining: +7,000 jobs - Construction: +5,000 jobs [6] - Five industries experienced job losses: - Information: -17,000 jobs - Professional and business services: -15,000 jobs - Other services: -13,000 jobs - Leisure and hospitality: -6,000 jobs - Manufacturing: -3,000 jobs [6] Establishment Size Impact - Only large establishments (500 or more employees) added jobs, contributing 73,000 jobs - Small businesses (1-49 employees) cut 10,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-499 employees) reduced their workforce by 21,000 [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 37,500 jobs, marking a recovery from the 29,000 jobs lost in September [3][6][11] - The job growth is primarily driven by the services sector, particularly trade, transportation, and utilities, which added 47,000 jobs, while education and healthcare contributed an additional 26,000 jobs [6][7] - Despite the positive job additions, the overall employment conditions remain weak, with declines in sectors such as professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality [8][9] Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicates that private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, a significant rebound from the previous month [3][6] - Wage growth for employees who remained in the same position increased by 4.5% year-over-year, while those changing jobs saw a 6.7% increase in October [6][10] - The goods-producing sector added approximately 9,000 jobs, led by natural resources and mining, but manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs [9] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main contributor to job growth, with notable gains in trade, transportation, and utilities, marking the strongest performance since February 2023 [7] - The leisure and hospitality sector experienced a concerning decline, shedding 6,000 jobs, which raises questions about consumer health and spending resilience [8] - Large companies (250+ employees) added 76,000 jobs, while small and midsize businesses (less than 250 employees) lost around 35,000 jobs [9] Economic Context - The ADP report has gained importance due to the government shutdown affecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' ability to release employment data [4][5] - The current labor market data suggests stabilization but lacks significant momentum, which may influence Federal Reserve policymakers to consider interest rate cuts in December [5][7]

Core Insights - The ADP private payroll data indicates a growth of 42,000 jobs in October, with goods-producing sectors adding 9,000 jobs and service-providing sectors adding 33,000 jobs, raising questions about whether this is the new normal for job growth [1][5] - There is a notable decline in employment among small businesses, with a loss of 10,000 jobs for companies with fewer than 50 workers, marking the third consecutive month of job losses in this segment [2][8] - The job gains are primarily concentrated in larger companies, while small and medium-sized businesses are experiencing job losses, suggesting a potential impact from tariffs and other economic pressures [3][10] Employment Trends - The sectors showing job growth include trade, transportation, and utilities, while education, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality are experiencing declines [4][7] - Wage growth remains unchanged at 4.5% for job stayers and 6.7% for job changers, indicating a stable but tight labor market [4][5] - The overall recovery in employment is described as tepid, with significant weaknesses in professional and information services, as well as leisure and hospitality [6][8] Economic Implications - The current job growth of 42,000 may be sufficient to maintain or lower the unemployment rate, especially in the context of stagnant labor force growth [12] - Small businesses, which employ three out of four workers in the U.S., are facing challenges in hiring, potentially due to tariff uncertainties and demographic shifts [8][10][14] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these employment figures to guide monetary policy decisions, indicating a "muddled middle" in the job market [16][18]