2025 trading behavior prominently featured momentum. Certain categories of stocks soared to new heights while others were left in the dust. Toward the end of the year, investors became locked in the high-fliers for fear of incurring a big tax bill, but with the calendar rolling over they can sell knowing that taxes are 16 months away. We anticipate significant rotation between asset classes. Some of the formerly forgotten stocks are poised to rebound. Not all that has fallen will recover, but those with the ...

Core Thesis - Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) presents a compelling value proposition with an AFFO yield of nearly 12%, which comfortably supports its 7.6% dividend, but faces various challenges that may affect its quality compared to peers [1][2] Value Proposition - The company's value is driven by a low cost-basis and a stock price that results in an enterprise value of $150 per square foot, significantly below the replacement cost of over $200 per foot [3] - Each $100 invested in PINE generates $11.94 of AFFO, with comparable properties trading at cap rates of 6.5%-9%, indicating that PINE offers superior cash flow compared to direct real estate investments [4] Cash Flow Stability - Cash flows are secured with a weighted average lease term of 9 years, and 50% of tenants hold investment-grade ratings, which is favorable compared to triple net peers [7][9] Market Position - PINE's AFFO multiple of 8.7X is low relative to the broader market and even within the REIT sector, where the average AFFO multiple is 13.1X, indicating that while PINE is cheap, the valuation gap with peers is not substantial [11][12] Quality Concerns - PINE is considered lower quality due to its exposure to cyclical retailers, with a significant number of at-risk tenants, including pharmacies and dollar stores, which have faced recent struggles [13][15] - The company has a longer list of watchlist tenants, and recent bankruptcies among tenants like At Home raise concerns about future cash flows [19][20] Loan Portfolio - PINE has a loan portfolio totaling $69.6 million, which is substantial relative to its $212 million market cap, and the expiration of these loans could negatively impact AFFO [22][23] Future Growth Outlook - Despite an attractive AFFO multiple, PINE's growth is expected to be weaker than peers over the next four years due to elevated tenant churn and the roll-off of lucrative loans [27] - The company may become a more attractive investment if it successfully replaces troubled tenants with more stable ones or if it can reinvest expiring loans into equally high-return investments [29]