Core Insights - Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers are maintaining strong pricing power, with forecasts indicating elevated LTL rates for the fourth quarter [1] - The LTL rate-per-pound reached a record high in Q3, standing 65.1% above the January 2018 baseline, with a slight expected dip to 64.8% in Q4, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth [1][2] - The cost per LTL shipment has shown strong pricing discipline, with a widening spread between cost and weight per shipment, reflecting effective yield management by carriers [6][7] Pricing and Market Trends - The LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index is projected to remain elevated, with a year-over-year increase of 180 basis points [1] - The dataset has maintained a premium of approximately 60% to the baseline over the past three years, indicating stability in pricing despite market fluctuations [2] - The truckload (TL) rate-per-mile is expected to see minimal increase, reflecting a lack of robust trends in the truckload segment [8] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing data has shown weakness, with the PMI registering a contraction at 49.1, and the new orders subindex falling to 48.9, indicating potential future declines in activity [5] - Despite negative manufacturing indicators, LTL rates have remained resilient, suggesting that carriers are focusing on yield rather than volume [4] Cost and Shipment Analysis - In Q3, the cost per LTL shipment decreased by 0.7% year-over-year, while the weight per shipment fell by 7.4%, leading to a significant widening of the cost-weight spread [6] - Fuel surcharges increased by 5.6% sequentially, while the length of haul rose by 1.3%, indicating rising operational costs for carriers [6]