Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 05, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsNeal Goldner - VP - IRJohn Geller - CEO, President & DirectorJason Marino - EVP & CFOC. Patrick Scholes - Managing Director - Lodging & Leisure Equity ResearchBrandt Montour - Director - Equity ResearchDavid Katz - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsBenjamin Chaiken - Equity AnalystStephen Grambling - MD & Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorGreetings, and welcome to the Marriott Vacations Wo ...

Core Viewpoint - Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) has underperformed in the past year, with a loss of approximately 7% in value due to rising credit losses in its timeshare loan portfolio [1] Company Performance - The company has faced increasing credit losses on its timeshare loan portfolio, which has contributed to its poor stock performance [1] Analyst Perspective - The analysis is based on over fifteen years of experience in making contrarian bets and focusing on stock-specific turnaround stories to achieve favorable risk/reward profiles [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong consumer demand in Q1 2025, with consistent growth continuing into April and May, indicating a positive trend in top-line performance [6][7][42] - The provision for 2025 is set at 21%, with expectations of slight seasonal fluctuations but overall confidence in maintaining this figure throughout the year [38][39] - The average FICO score of consumers is between 730 and 740, the highest in the industry, which is expected to positively impact the provision as market confidence returns [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has three primary revenue streams: vacation ownership sales, management, and loans, with a consumer notes portfolio of $3.1 billion [15][39] - The average transaction price for new timeshare purchases is between $20,000 and $25,000, with a significant portion of owners having paid off their loans, enhancing consumer spending capacity [12][13] - The company has seen a shift in its customer base, with 65% of new owners being Gen Xers or millennials, indicating a successful strategy to attract younger demographics [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The travel and membership segment faces headwinds due to industry consolidation, impacting the exchange business, which represents a significant portion of EBITDA [71][72] - The company is exploring growth in the travel club business, which operates outside traditional timeshare models, indicating diversification efforts [72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes the durability of its business model, highlighting a high concentration of recurring revenue and stable margins, which are attractive to investors [8][9] - There is a focus on leveraging partnerships with lifestyle brands to enhance marketing efforts and customer experiences, such as collaborations with Live Nation and Sports Illustrated [25][28] - The company is committed to a capital allocation strategy that includes dividends, share repurchases, and opportunistic growth investments, maintaining a strong balance sheet [49][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business model, noting that consumer demand remains strong despite broader economic uncertainties [10][41] - The company anticipates that as interest rates potentially decrease, it could lead to improved margins and cash flow generation [48][60] - There is a proactive approach to addressing challenges in the exchange business while seeking new opportunities for growth [74][75] Other Important Information - The company has a significant inventory of vacation properties, approximately four years' worth, which provides flexibility in capital deployment and cash conservation [61][63] - The management team is focused on utilizing AI and digital marketing to enhance customer engagement and increase resort bookings [66][67] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the current demand environment? - Management characterized the demand environment as consistently strong, with positive growth trends continuing into the summer months [6][7] Question: What is the strategy for addressing the next generation of owners? - The company has successfully attracted younger demographics, with a focus on brand consistency and flexibility in vacation options [18][19] Question: How does the company plan to manage its receivables portfolio? - Management indicated that while provisions may fluctuate, the overall health of the receivables portfolio is strong, supported by high FICO scores [39][46] Question: What are the expectations for the travel and membership segment? - The exchange business faces challenges due to industry consolidation, but the company is optimistic about growth in the travel club segment [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) has shown strong stock performance, gaining 9.5% in a month, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [1] - The company is experiencing solid operational performance and resilient consumer demand, particularly in its vacation ownership segment [15] Stock Performance - TNL's stock closed at $47.89, below its 52-week high of $58.95 and above its 52-week low of $37.77 [1] - Other industry players like Atour Lifestyle, Marriott Vacations, and Hilton Grand Vacations have also seen significant stock gains [1] Technical Indicators - TNL is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating strong upward momentum and price stability [2] Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, TNL reported a Volume Per Guest (VPG) of $3,212, up from the previous year, indicating healthy consumer spending [3] - There has been an increase in resort bookings, reflecting owners' eagerness to utilize vacation options [3] Owner Demographics - The average age of TNL's owners has shifted to the mid-50s, suggesting increased sales potential to younger generations [4] Market Trends - Travel remains a key component of the experience economy, with strong performance in popular destinations like Florida and growing interest in family-friendly locations [5] Brand Strategy - TNL is enhancing its brand strategy through partnerships and targeted expansion, including a successful collaboration with Wyndham Hotels [6][8] - The company plans to launch Sports Illustrated-branded sales in 2025 and expand the Margaritaville brand with a new resort in Orlando [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TNL's earnings per share for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down slightly to $6.40 and $7.43, respectively [10] Valuation - TNL is currently trading at a discount compared to the industry, with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 7.04 [11] Consumer Sentiment - Broader macroeconomic conditions and declining consumer sentiment in 2025 pose risks to discretionary spending, particularly among new buyers [12][15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue increased year over year, enabling a 3% higher adjusted EBITDA [13][22] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $192 million, with margins remaining strong at 23% [15][22] - Total company contract sales declined 2% compared to the prior year, with first-time buyer sales increasing 6% year over year [14][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Development profit increased 4% compared to the prior year, with development margin increasing by 70 basis points [15] - Total company rental profit declined 10% year over year to $46 million, impacted by higher unsold maintenance fees and other variable costs [15] - Financing profit increased 6%, driven by higher interest income [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Resort occupancy ran over 90% in the first quarter, with strong forward bookings [6] - Nearly 70% of Marriott Vacations points reservations for stays at resorts were booked online, a significant increase from previous years [10] - Loan and maintenance fee delinquencies improved year over year, with a 60 basis point decrease [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on modernization initiatives to accelerate revenue growth, reduce costs, and enhance operational efficiencies, targeting $150 million to $200 million in run rate benefits by the end of 2026 [5][12] - A comprehensive digital strategy is being implemented to increase product utilization and expand e-commerce [8] - The company plans to generate $75 million to $100 million of adjusted EBITDA benefits from revenue initiatives [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted the current economic environment is volatile but consumer demand remains strong [12] - The company is confident in its updated contract sales guidance, expecting to see improvements in owner arrivals as the year progresses [7][12] - Management emphasized the importance of high-margin recurring revenue streams, which contribute around 40% of adjusted EBITDA [12][22] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $865 million in liquidity and no corporate debt maturities until early 2026 [16] - Share buybacks increased, with $91 million returned to shareholders in the first quarter [18] - The company is actively working on disposing of non-core assets, including the Sheraton Kauai Resort [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about contract sales in March or April? - Contract sales were down about 4% in March and similar in April, but there was an increase in VPGs and contract sales for first-time buyers in April [26][27] Question: Can you elaborate on the cost savings mentioned? - The company expects $35 million in savings from modernization initiatives, with product costs being better than initially anticipated [28][30] Question: What is being done to drive tour flow? - The company is focused on driving tour flow through various initiatives and incentives, enhancing the value proposition for consumers [36] Question: Can you explain the inventory mix adjustment? - The inventory mix is being adjusted by selling different products and modulating the inventory to drive costs down [39][40] Question: How is the availability of new inventory? - The company is in a good position regarding inventory availability across all brands, with ongoing upgrades and buybacks [43] Question: What is the expectation for share repurchases going forward? - The company plans to balance share repurchases with getting back to target leverage, viewing shares as undervalued [46][48] Question: Can you discuss the non-core asset sales? - The company is working on selling excess assets, including a hotel in Kauai and retail space in Waikiki [56][57] Question: What is the trend in owner growth? - The company aims to drive owner growth above 35%, focusing on first-time buyers for long-term health [62][64]

Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE:TNL) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 23, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Mike Hug - Chief Financial Officer Michael Brown - President & Chief Executive Officer Conference Call Participants David Katz - Jefferies Patrick Scholes - Truist Securities Dany Asad - Bank of America Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank Lizzie Dove - Goldman Sachs Asset Management Ben Chaiken - Mizuho Securities Stephen Grambling - Morgan Stanley Brandt Montour - Barclays Operator Welcome to the Trave ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 7% year-over-year increase in contract sales for Q4 2024, with first-time buyer sales growing by 9% [22][39] - Adjusted EBITDA for the total company decreased by 1% to $185 million, while adjusted EBITDA in the Vacation Ownership segment was $221 million with a margin of 27% [26][27] - The company ended the year with leverage of approximately four times, higher than the long-term goal of three times, but still manageable [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Vacation Ownership segment, rental occupancy increased by 300 basis points, and profit increased by 20% compared to the previous year [26] - The Exchange and Third-Party Management segment saw adjusted EBITDA decline by $9 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower profit at Aqua Aston and reduced transactions at Interval [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide resort occupancy reached 90%, with Hawaii occupancy at 95% [8] - Research indicates that 80% of American adults plan to take a vacation this year, with international travelers to the U.S. expected to increase, particularly from the Asia Pacific region [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on business modernization to enhance operational efficiencies and accelerate revenue growth, expecting to generate an additional $150 million to $200 million in annualized adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026 [17][35] - New developments include a 168-unit Marriott Vacation Club in Downtown Nashville and expansion plans in Thailand and Bali [12][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are prioritizing leisure travel, which has been particularly pronounced post-pandemic [7] - The company anticipates contract sales growth in the range of 2% to 6% for the upcoming year, with a focus on enhancing customer experiences through technology and data analytics [29][19] Other Important Information - The company plans to spend $90 million to $95 million on reacquired inventory this year, which is below replacement cost [28] - The company has over $900 million in liquidity and no corporate debt maturities until early 2026 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the trend of new owner mix expected to continue in 2025? - Management confirmed the goal is to continue growing first-time buyers, which contributed to contract sales growth in Q4 [45] Question: Does the $90 million to $95 million of inventory repurchase correlate with the increased reserve taken last year? - Management explained that the repurchase relates to owners not using their vacations as much and maintenance fee defaults [48] Question: Can you clarify the headwinds for 2025 EBITDA guidance? - Management indicated a $15 million to $20 million increase in variable compensation and a $10 million hard comp from rental benefits in 2024 that won't recur in 2025 [60][62] Question: How did the modernization initiatives come about? - Management stated that the initiatives were driven by the need to accelerate growth and improve efficiencies, particularly in technology [72][75]

Core Insights - Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) reported $1.28 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, a 26% year-over-year increase, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.89% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.49, down from $1.01 a year ago, representing a surprise of -35.53% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.76 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Cost reimbursements revenue was $135 million, exceeding the average estimate of $126.33 million by analysts, marking a 39.2% year-over-year increase [4] - Sales of Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs), net, totaled $450 million, below the estimated $516.28 million, but still reflecting a 19.7% increase from the previous year [4] - Revenue from rental and ancillary services was $174 million, slightly below the estimate of $176.81 million, with a year-over-year increase of 6.1% [4] - Financing revenue reached $153 million, surpassing the average estimate of $114.52 million, showing an impressive year-over-year growth of 86.6% [4] - Sales, marketing, brand, and other fees generated $166 million, exceeding the average estimate of $142.28 million, with a year-over-year increase of 24.8% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Hilton Grand Vacations have returned -2.3%, compared to a -2.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]